I kind of hope that Newt Gingrich runs for president. I’d be more enthusiastic about it if I could be sure he wouldn’t win. I get the feeling that the Republican primaries are going to be the weirdest, most depressing, and terrifying thing I’ve ever seen. Gingrich might be one of the saner candidates. But even the people with a passing familiarity with reality, like Romney and Pawlenty, will feel compelled to out-crazy the crazies. By the end of the debates, we might be debating whether the wrong side won the Civil War.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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I doubt he runs. Frankly I doubt Palin runs. But what do I know? Although with her it’s more likely she’ll run and then quit halfway through the campaign and blame somebody else for her gross incompetence as a candidate. I see Newt as just engaging in a harmless circle-jerk for the next year or so. He just enjoys all the press and love from a certain segment of out-of-shape, over the hill, patriarchal whities, gets to collect various appearance fees, sell books etc. Newt’s too smart not to know that getting humiliated at the polls, which is what would likely happen, would put a major crimp on the wing-nut buffet-circuit for him.
It’s like look at Rudy G. Does even Fox even give a shit about him? Newt doesn’t want to go there.
It depends. I think Newt runs either way, but him getting the nomination probably depends on how strong Obama is at the time. If Obama looks good, then Huckabee and Romney may well sit this one out, leaving Newt to take it and get slaughtered a la Goldwater.
If not, I’d put my money on Huckster or Mittens.
You mean there’s any doubt the South should have won the Civil War, er, the War Between the States?
</snark>
War of Northern Aggression
Palin’s running. No question. In her mind, she’s already (to borrow a parliamentary term) the shadow president, commenting on how she’d handle everything Obama does.
Her laziness is not an issue. Palin is running as a hybrid celebrity/demigoddess, not as a traditional politician. She can raise money from her base just by asking. She does not need to kiss babies; she has TV and new media. She’s collecting chits from R office-holders and other candidates all over the country this year with her ability to draw crowds to their rallies or just to endorse them; no other R comes close to her power to do that. She certainly has the requisite ego. And she’s probably banking on the idea that the longer, 2010-12, that she acts “presidential,” the more used people will get to thinking of her in that role. Reagan did this very effectively 1976-80, and in 1980 Dems couldn’t believe people were taking “that nut” seriously. Beware.
The problem is that she’s got no up side; independents and everyone else already have their minds pretty set about her, and not much (other than a total Obama flameout, which I don’t see happening) will change that. Depending on Tea Party fortunes & staying power, I could see her winning the nomination – to the complete dismay of most R leadership – but not the general. But even having her come that close is terrifying.
What’s the downside for her in running? She’s going to make a shitload of money regardless, and completely on her own terms. In the end, even quitting the governorship didn’t dent much of her fanatical base. Between Fox and her own new media following, she’s in front of the rabble constantly. She’s really very well positioned.
Gingrich’s niche would be the old white guys who find Palin appealing but want someone saner (and less likely to get bored) at the helm. In other words, guys (and funders) with reactionary politics but who are still reality-based. IMO that’s a depressingly small part of the R base right now. I see him running, or at least seriously exploring it – because he really wants to and can raise money, ala Giuliani, and is getting too old to wait any longer – and getting no traction at all.
I suspect most sane powerbroker voices in the GOP know full well that Newt just wouldn’t have much voter appeal were he to get the nom. A major turnoff for the vast majority of voters not unlike how they received BGoldwater in 64, with Newtie just as capable as Barry of uttering something appalling stupid and extreme.
Agree about Palin running this cycle. Though, now that you mention RR in the 70s, you made me think of what would probably be her ideal strategy: run in 12, officially or no, but with a view towards 16. Get your feet wet this next election for the more serious run next time, the thinking being Obama is probably going to get re-elected, assuming a decent economic recovery, but be in the game anyway in case it’s not.
Not sure if this was Reagan’s 76 looking at 80 strategy, since RR fought awfully hard for the 76 nom, but in the end that’s the way it worked out (76 was always going to be a strong Dem yr; by 78 Carter already looked dangerously vulnerable). I’d advise Palin to fight just hard enough in 12 to look viable, but in the end allow a Pawlenty or Huckster or Thune to emerge with what will likely be a nasty thumping at the polls. Then come back untarnished a few yrs later and go for it all out.
As little as I cared for Barry Goldwater, he was a moral and intellectual giant compared with Newt.
Newt seems kind of tame for the current GOP crowd, doesn’t he? I mean why settle for him when you could have a Paul or Palin or, who knows — Glenn Beck? Newt isn’t “colorful” enough for the total nutso Republican majority, but has too much of a loose cannon vibe for the remaining Romney types. Hard to see where he fits in anymore.
I see a Sarah/Bristol ticket running on a Family Values platform. Then when the campaign evaporates halfway through due to attention span and mysterious pregnancies, the Ron/Rand ticket goes in as designated hitters.
I think Newt’s just got too much sleazy shit in his past. It’s not quite ancient history yet — people may have forgotten about it, but one well-timed ad reminding people about it and he’s cooked. He’d never make it out of the primary.
Why not both? I see Newt as a Cheney type. He would enjoy being the power behind the throne and VP’s aren’t taken as seriously.
Precisely.
AG
And was told that Sen. John Thune has some “skeletons in the closet” that will keep him from running. She’s a very credible source, but couldn’t tell me more than that because of her confidentiality agreement.
Awesome if true since Thune has the look and blank-slatism of a credible GOP contender.