This says it all:
A cap was placed atop the blown-out Gulf of Mexico oil well Thursday night, but oil was still spewing into the Gulf waters on Friday morning.
The containment cap was placed over the main pipe on the leaking well on Thursday, but the oil flow seemed to overpower that cap. BP spokesman Toby Odone said he had no immediate information on whether the cap was successfully attached. […]
Part of this LMRP containment cap process involved the cutting of the riser pipe, which was ultimately achieved on Thursday morning. But that step in the process likely increased the flow of oil into the Gulf. The cut was supposed to allow for the cap to be fitted over the leak, allowing for minimal oil to escape its grasp. Video of the leak on Friday morning did not show the cap, just a cloud of oil flowing.
I’m beginning to think that they should have accepted for James Cameron’s offer to help. Everything they’ve done so far has failed or made things worse.
Frankly, BP has seemed to be out of its depth since day one, using technology from three decades ago intended for shallower waters to try to deal with an oil leak at nearly a mile below the surface of the ocean. I suspect Cameron and the people he has worked with have more experience with submersibles at such depths than any BP engineer.
Let’s put it this way: he couldn’t have done any worse. And I hate the guy.
Meanwhile, here’s a simulation about where all that oil (no one knows exactly how much but somewhere between between 21 million and 46 million gallons) may go. It’s a horror film so don’t let the kids watch it:
Checking the “Status Report” comments in the liveblog on Daily Kos and the description of the process tells me that it is too early to expect a reduction in oil flow from what they are doing. Because of the pressure, the engineers cannot reduce the oil flow rapidly. It appears at the moment from the video stream that the robot submarines are beginning to tight the nut to close off the flow between the old BOP and the new cap.
There is a lot of second-guessing going on by folks who don’t really understand the engineering problem. My layman’s view is that what they are doing now makes more sense than the earlier cap attempt. And I don’t think we will know whether it will succeed for another week–unless there is a graphic failure.
While BP management and PR sucks, the engineers that are working this are working in a pretty straightforward engineering way — proceed from the simpler solutions to the more complex, doing a risk analysis as you go. What was done before was to avoid cutting the pipe and get the full pressure of the oil. Once the data from Top Kill showed that the pressure was only diminished by 10%, cutting the pipe meant only a 10% or so increase in flow. It turns out that immediately after cutting the pipe, the flow increased by 20%.
The current plan according to the BP presentation is to cap the BOP and draw the oil to the surface through pipe for collection. Getting that all done will likely take a week or so under best circumstances.
I think we’re all just immensely frustrated and are feeling desperate for some good news.
Yep
On any issue, some good news is long overdue.
news.
This is an actual disaster, not some Hollywood movie.
If you want some perspective on the significance of this event, try Dimitri Orlove. He describes this event as an American Chernobyl, and I am not one to dispute his argument. I say only, “We certainly will see.” Orlov gives his views on the political and social consequences we might expect to unfold, as the five stages of being lost.
On the technical side, The Oil Drum is very good. They have been running articles for weeks now on the basic situation, and developments.
Unfortunately, the technical news is not good. The blowout itself was due to synergizing gross negligence by several parties, likely including Halliburton (whose cement job it was that failed), with BP itself at the center of disastrously irresponsible decision-making.
But now that the blow-out has occurred, the words of Lady Macbeth (from Shakespeare’s play) are relevant: “What’s done cannot be undone.” That is the heart of it right there. The relief wells will eventually be drilled, and they will likely work. If they don’t, new relief wells will be drilled and they will try again. That’s it. Unless the overlying rock formation fails (Matt Simmon’s view), eventually the relief wells will work and the blow-out will be stopped.
Everything else is theater for the Sheeple. The cement cage, the top hat, the junk shot, the top-kill, and now the cap . . . all of these had to be tried, of course, because . . . well, why not? But there was never any real chance of success nor is there now. It was and is a matter of going through the motions because there is nothing else to do, while we wait for the relief wells to work.
A friend of a friend of mine is in Alabama right now. He is very angry, as he is beginning to understand that he has lost his home. He has: It is inevitable–Half the island where he lives has already been sealed off by the National Guard. When the wind is from the wrong direction the air reeks, and soon the air will be unbreatheable. He will have to leave.
Millions currently living along the Gulf will have to leave. Where they will go, what they will do, what they will think–I can’t imagine. Incoherent rage seems pretty much inevitable, but I don’t foresee much reality-oriented action. I do not see anybody, in government or out, giving any thought to this, which means that events will unfold . . . spontaneously. Katrina, only more so.
I would be remiss if I did not mention that this disaster is a sure sign that global oil production has peaked, and that we are now on the down-slope–trying to exploit ever-poorer, -more costly, -more hazardous reservoirs. This in turn means that our civilization itself has moved into terminal decline and eventual collapse. I like to think of it like a hurricane, which takes HOURS to move in but seems to go fast because nobody pays attention until it is too late. The sure signs of our pending collapse have been around for years, and may continue for several years yet, but how many are paying attention and trying to prepare?
Migration from the Gulf will accelerate collapse. Whatever its time-frame, the blow-out has brought that time-frame forward, closer.
If you want to pray for something, pray that Simmons is wrong. In his scenerio, the blow-out is not stopped, ever (because it cannot be). Eventually the reservoir depletes, but by that time the Gulf probably goes anoxic and the no-go zone (due to hydrogen sulfide) extends hundreds of miles in all directions.
Maybe a whiff of the Permian extinction would wake us up. But I wouldn’t count on it. Much better that it never happens.
I’m just glad they’re declining the last ditch option of the bomb down the pipe, nuclear or not.
I had a few moments where I was laughingly suggesting they send up one of the space shuttles on autopilot and since they’ve decommisioned them, turn it around and GPS it into the wellhead. According to CNN, the engineers are totally exhausted and panic stricken trying to get something to work.
Doubt you meant it as a pun, but even so, it’s a good one
“out of its depth since day one”