A lot of political blogs are doing rundowns on the interesting primary races that will be decided tomorrow. I don’t feel like doing a comprehensive piece. What I am mainly interested in seeing is whether the Republicans nominate candidates that make it easier for Democrats to win. For example, Harry Reid has been on life support for the last year, but he can probably beat teabagger extraordinaire Sharron Angle. Down in South Carolina, the Democrats have no business thinking they can take over the governor’s mansion but the GOP seems poised to nominate a woman who has been accused of having more than one extramarital affair. If that proves to be true, or the public becomes convinced that it’s true, the Dems just might be facing a crippled candidate.
Obviously, the biggest race tomorrow is the runoff election between Arkansas Senator Blance Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Will another incumbent get bounced out of office before the general election? In some ways it doesn’t much matter. This was always more about sending a message than actually winning. And the message has been sent. Whoever wins tomorrow will be a long-shot to win in November. Still, I’ll be pulling for Halter because he has a better chance of holding the seat and because he’s running without the support of the Arkansas Democratic Establishment. I think he’d probably be a better senator than Lincoln. And smarter.
There are a number of interesting House races to watch for tomorrow. Can Richard Pombo make a comeback? Will any teabaggers break through in Virginia? Will Bob Inglis get outwingnutted in South Carolina? Lots of fun and lots to look at. I actually enjoy election day because it’s the one time when talking doesn’t matter and we get to see what people really think. The electorate appears to be quite ornery and I suspect we’ll see that reflected in tomorrow’s results.
What are going to look for?
I want Lincoln gone. I read somewhere that voting places are being closed and alot of hanky panky going on with voting in Arkansas. I hope not.
In VA I see the party rethug-Hurt-winning his primary and the teabagger going indie which will throw indie votes straight to Periello. The teabaggers just don’t get this splitting the vote thing. Oh yeh, they’re running on ideaology and not much on real issues. Plus Periello is in good shape financially and is kicking up his fundraising machine now.
Bob Inglis has some heavyweight opposition that is not exactly of the Tea Party stripe. Somebody smells a vulnerability. I see one of three of the candidates winning and none of them is a Tea Party type. Establishment holds onto this one.
The Democrats are giving SC-04 a pass apparently. The D candidate has a contentless web site saying “Watch this space” — marks of a stalking horse candidate.
So the SC governor’s race comes down to “Will the alleged gay or the candidate with two alleged affairs get it?” Or will one of the other candidates win by default. On the Democratic side, if Jim Rex gets it, it’s “Game on”. Haley really is the GOP’s strongest candidate, but the “stealth Sikh” attack is more likely to cripple her than the alleged affairs. And that is not something likely to be dismissed by those who take it seriously.
well, you’re from there and you know the state much better than I do. It’s pretty scary to think that the stealth Sikh thing would be taken seriously.
um, you DO know we’re talking about South Carolina republicans here, right?
these are people who don’t believe in evolution and think Barack Obama ws born in kenya. i don’t so much see it as “scary” that they’d believe the “stealth sikh” thing, it’s totally predictable and borne of nearly 350 years of history, a state too fucking stupid to see that joining the confederacy might not be the best idea to come down the pike.
What do I know? My only experience in South Carolina, aside from driving through it, is Hilton Head Island, which is obviously completely atypical. I don’t hang out with people who don’t believe in evolution or who think Obama was born in Kenya. The right-wingers I know are either tax-averse suburbanites or working class folks with anger issues.
um, you DO know we’re talking about South Carolina republicans here, right?
And they were the people Karl Rove pulled one of his dirtiest tricks on. I hope I don’t need to remind people what it was.
Rove’s trick said a lot about the people who A) believed it and B) actually gave a shit about it.
cus if someone asked ME if I was more or less likely to vote for someone if i knew they had an illegitimate child with a black woman, I’d tell that person to go fuck him or herself and hang up the phone.
You say that “these are the people that don’t believe in evolution” as if it’s a fringe belief.
Heh, not exactly fringe:
Darwin Too Controversial
Not at all. My parents are creationists, as I’m sure the majority of Virginia is.
Although I’m in North Carolina for the summer, so I’ll go with the majority outside of the Research Triangle.
Seriously by some people, possibly some Haley supporters who were thinking of her as a strong born-again Christian (which she might be) but who will now have doubts in the voting booth.
Attacks like this aren’t aimed at a rational response, they are aimed at creating just enough doubt in the voting booth to swing just enough voters to another candidate. In a small turnout election, that is all it might take to get to a runoff.
Emphasis on “some” as in “just enough”
tomorrow’s approaching too fast…. (CA voting for me)
I wish they put party affiliation for local runners…I don’t wanna vote in a TeaBagger simply because I don’t want the incumbent, and don’t recognise the names.. Conservatism may be a failure, but this sort of pbfuscation can allow for its zombie to shamble on…
Whose district do you live in?
CA-16….Rep’s Zoe Lofgren
Biggest local issue for my town is voting on the bond issue to bring the 49’ers to Santa Clara (measure J)…I’m still straddling the fence on that.
I have gotten several updates over the course of the day describing polls turning Halter voters away.
this needs to be dealt with quickly.
No mention of the Marcy Winograd/Jane Harman race? That’s tomorrow, right?
yeah, that’s tomorrow. I hear it’s not close. If she was in trouble, we’d be hearing the press talk about it. But, who knows? Maybe complacency will be our friend?
Harmon’s just too rich (thanks to her defense-contractor husband). Can’t topple her.
Harman. Oops!
I haven’t even seen any polls though. Not even from Markos. And Marcy got 35% 4 years ago with out spending any money. Then again, Halter outperformed the polls. So there is hope.
I don’t care if Halter can’t win the general election – I want Lincoln G-O-N-E
CWA has an expose lincoln site up:
http://www.lincolnexposed.com/
Should have gone up long ago.
I think the outcome of the AR runoff matters enormously. What message was sent if Lincoln wins? That the not-corporate side of the Dem party is toothless and can be brushed aside. A Halter win will drive a lesson home for both individual candidates/incumbents and the party establishment itself. In our disgrace of an electoral system, primaries are the only way for not-establishment views to get some traction.
I’m running a polling place tomorrow. Should be interesting. Taking a “vacation” day from work – but it will be one of the longer days of my life..!!
if halter loses he’s a footnote, if he wins, its a rebuke to not just corporate dems everywhere, but it could have a huge impact on the internal dynamics of the dem caucus and its relationship with the white house. on healthcare, i think one thing we don’t realize is that lincoln never really crossed the WH- Obama never said Public Option was a dealbreaker. I think if Halter wins, Obama may be more likely to take a tougher line with the wavering corporate dems, saying they need to at the very least need to stop threatening filibusters.
Another result is that some of the corporate dems may be less likely to try to be the 58th, 59th and 60th votes on key legislation, correctly concluding that being in the limelight just makes you like like an ass. If Lincoln loses, the corporate dems may go back to the back benches where they belong.
My spin is probably major wishful thinking but i still think the implications for our caucus is huge- progressives could use a win and the beltway won’t take notice unless its a knockout punch.