It reads like a script from some eco-disaster summer blockbuster movie. A 20 square mile methane gas bubble under astronomically high pressures is trapped deep below the surface of the earth. Along comes a greedy mega-corporation seeking more billions of dollars from extracting the oil trapped with the methane and it drills into the reservoir, ignoring warnings that its safety measures aren’t up to snuff. Suddenly, the well explodes, destroyed by a rupture to the pipeline. Government and company heads frantically attempt to assure everyone that everything is all under control.
Except it’s not.
You see, a new frightening possibility has recently been making its way around the internet sparked by a worst case scenario that the methane bubble trapped beneath the Deep Water Horizion site is so large and under so much pressure that it just might explosively erupt from the ocean bed creating a tsunami of monstrous proportions that literally kills millions of animals from the species homo sapiens.
I know this sounds like science fiction, but could it be science fact? Not according to DK Matai, of the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ACTA), who has envisioned the real nightmare that may (and I stress may) be keeping members of the Obama administration up at night hoping that BP hasn’t unleashed the worst eco-catastrophe since — ever:
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More than a year ago, geologists expressed alarm in regard to BP and Transocean putting their exploratory rig directly over this massive underground reservoir of methane. Warnings were raised before the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe that the area of seabed chosen might be unstable and inherently dangerous. […]
… So far, over 8 billion cubic feet [of methane] may have been released, making it one of the most vigorous methane eruptions in modern human history. If the estimates of 100,000 barrels a day — that have emerged from a BP internal document — are true, then the estimates for methane gas release might have to be doubled. […]
… Some speculate that the pressure of the methane at the base of the well head, deep under the ocean floor, may be as high as 100,000 psi — far too much for current technology to contain. The shutoff valves and safety measures were only built for thousands of psi at best. There is no known device to cap a well with such an ultra high pressure. […]
According to geologists, the first signs that the methane may burst its way through the bottom of the ocean would be manifest via fissures or cracks appearing on the ocean floor near the path of least resistance, ie, the damaged well head. Evidence of fissures opening up on the seabed have been captured by the robotic midget submarines working to repair and contain the ruptured well. Smaller, independent plumes have also appeared outside the nearby radius of the bore hole. When reviewing video tapes of the live BP feeds, one can see in the tapes of mid-June that there is oil spewing up from visible fissions. Geologists are pointing to new fissures and cracks that are appearing on the ocean floor. […]
A methane bubble this large — if able to escape from under the ocean floor through fissures, cracks and fault areas — is likely to cause a gas explosion. With the emerging evidence of fissures, the tacit fear now is this: the methane bubble may rupture the seabed and may then erupt with an explosion within the Gulf of Mexico waters. The bubble is likely to explode upwards propelled by more than 50,000 psi of pressure, bursting through the cracks and fissures of the sea floor, fracturing and rupturing miles of ocean bottom with a single extreme explosion.
What would happen then? Matai suggests that if a large methane bubble does explode it could create a tsunami traveling at hundreds of miles an hour and over 100 feet high straight for the coastlines of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, with Florida being the most at risk because its elevation is so low.
The gas cloud itself that emerges from the eruption would be highly toxic killing everything within its immediate vicinity. A second catastrophic event could then follow upon the first as the result of vaporization of water rushing in to the giant fissures created by the initial explosion:
After several billion barrels of oil and billions of cubic feet of gas have been released, the massive cavity beneath the ocean floor will begin to normalise, allowing freezing water to be forced naturally into the huge cavity where the oil and gas once were. The temperature in that cavity can be extremely hot at around 150 degrees celsius or more. The incoming water will be vaporised and turned into steam, creating an enormous force, which could actually lift the Gulf floor. According to computer models, a second massive tsunami wave might occur.
Is this scenario unlikely. Well, in the words of Matai, while it was very unlikely during the initial stages of the disaster, as time goes on “the risk increases, this low probability high impact scenario ought not to be ignored …”
So these are the question I would like anyone in the media to ask. Will you ask BP and government officials the following:
What planning if anything for such a worst case event has been set in motion?
How do the BP and government geologists and other scientists with access to the data involving the leak and the extremely high amounts of methane found in the Gulf (up to 40% of all the “product” that has poured out into the Gulf) assess the risk of such a massive explosion of methane from the reservoir underlying the Deep Water Horizon site?
What is the scientific basis for that assessment?
And who warned BP that they were playing Russian Roulette by drilling at such depths into such a large reservoir of natural gas under pressures which might equal up to 100,000 psi (pounds per square inch)?
I for one would like to know.
Update [2010-6-25 21:13:11 by Steven D]: From the bio of DK Matai at Huffington Post:
DK Matai is an engineer turned entrepreneur, investor and philanthropist with a keen interest in the well being of global society. DK founded mi2g in 1995, the global risk specialists, in London, UK, whilst developing simulations for his PhD at Imperial College. DK helped found ATCA – The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance – in 2001, a philanthropic expert initiative to address complex global challenges through Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. ATCA addresses opportunities and threats arising from climate chaos, radical poverty, organised crime, extremism, informatics, nanotechnology, robotics, genetics, artificial intelligence and financial systems. ATCA has 5,000+ distinguished members from over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10’s Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates, NGOs and 750+ Profs from academic centres of excellence.
Further information about him can be viewed at this link:
http://www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/dkm_profile.pdf
