Mitch McConnell is talking like a man who is certain his party will pick up seats in the fall. But I think he’s counting his chickens before they hatch. As things look now, it’s almost certain that the Dems will lose two seats (North Dakota and Arkansas) and that they will gain one (Florida), but the rest of the contested races are far too close to call at this early stage. I’m simply unimpressed and unintimidated by candidates like Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, Pat Toomey, Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Roy Blunt, Rob Portman, Dan Coats, and Carly Fiorina. I don’t think incumbents like Richard Burr, Chuck Grassley, and David Vitter should consider themselves safe. Everything is too fluid to make confident predictions right now. Even Mike Castle in Delaware doesn’t strike me as very energetic or charismatic. What’s more, the Democrats are fielding stronger, more compelling candidates in every single one of these races. I remain worried but optimistic.
