Month: October 2010

Cross-posted at WinningProgressive

It all comes down to Tuesday, when we, the voters, get to decide whether our country will keep moving forward with the Democrats to continue to address the economic and other major issues facing our nation, or whether we will spend the next two years mired in the obstructionism, petty investigations, and government shutdowns that Republicans have promised if they take power.

Here’s what you can do to keep America moving forward:

1. VOTE on Tuesday, November 2

a.       Find your polling place here.

b.      If you believe you are an eligible voter, but election judges believe you are not, you have the right under the Help America Vote Act to cast a provisional ballot, which means your vote is recorded and your eligibility will be determined later.

c.       While state laws vary, it is safest to bring at least one piece of identification, such as a driver’s license, passport, utility bill, or bank statement with your name and current address on it.

d.      If you encounter harassment, broken machines, or other problems at the polling place, contact the Voter Protection Hotline at 1-800-311-8683.

e.       If you haven’t decided whether to vote, or who to vote for, check out my closing argument in favor of voting Democratic.

2. Urge Your Family and Friends to Vote

a.       Visit, call, e-mail, or Facebook your friends and relatives to urge them to vote.  Here is sample text that you can personalize and can cut and paste into an e-mail or Facebook posting:

Please join me in voting Democratic on November 2.  You can find your polling place here and remember to bring a piece of identification with your name and current address (such as a driver’s license or utility bill) with you to the polling place.

I am voting Democratic because over the past 20 months, President Obama and the Democrats have stabilized our economy from the Bush Recession, produced private sector job growth every month this year, reduced the deficit, ended pre-existing condition health insurance exclusions, reined in Wall Street, and increased student loan funding by $65 billion.  Republican leaders, meanwhile, have promised to engage in continued obstructionism, launch investigations similar to what they did to President Clinton, shutdown the government if they don’t get their way, and repeal the Democrats’ common sense reforms of Wall Street and the health insurance industry.  Let’s keep moving America forward by voting Democratic on Tuesday.

3. Help Turn Out The Vote

a.       If at all possible, take all or some of Election Day off from work so that you can help turn out the vote.

b.      Sign up to do door-to-door canvassing, which is the most effective way to increase voter turnout.

c.       Call voters from the comfort of your own home to remind them to vote Democratic.

It’s been a day of yardwork, grocery shopping, cleaning gutters, and celebrating Finn’s first teeth. Happy Halloween, everybody. I hope you have a fun evening. Who is your favorite scary goblin, ghost, or ghoul?

(our little m&m added by CabinGirl…)

Sometime after Tuesday we’ll be reevaluating our Government and a new area of conflict will likely be established…

I am curious as to what the results of the Election 2010 will leave us with. It seems likely now that the Republicans will take control of the House, likely putting John Boehner (R-OH) into the Speaker’s chair. As to the Senate, the majority of pollsters have the Democrats keeping control by at least 1 seat… but there are odds that Harry Reid (D -NV) won’t be in one of them. This makes the Majority Leader position a “what if” situation… and it looks like Charles Schumer (D-NY) might get it.

As to Boehner, it is interesting that he is pushing candidates all over the place… the other day he supported Rich Iott, the Nazi Reenactor, in Ohio’s 9th District. TPM points out:

    House Minority Leader John Boehner took on the conventional wisdom that it’s bad politics to associate with Nazi reenactors by campaigning recently with Ohio congressional candidate Rich Iott. That’s about the only public support Iott’s received from the GOP since his SS scandal broke.

    Returning the favor, Iott, who’s running in Ohio’s 9th congressional district, now won’t say whether he’d support Boehner for Speaker.

Interesting. Does Iott know something we don’t? Roll Call, which first published Iott’s “iffy” stand on Boehner’s Speakership, doesn’t think it matters:

    Boehner isn’t likely to have Iott’s vote either way, since Kaptur (Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur) appears to be safe on Tuesday. CQ Politics rates this 9th district race Safe Democratic.

In the now close Senate race in Nevada, the Baltimore Sun doesn’t think it will be over on Tuesday:

    In Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was battling “tea party” insurgent Sharron Angle, each side was bracing for a close finish that could extend the campaign — through lawsuits, a recount or both — well beyond Tuesday.

Looking at the Nevada Senate campaign, we’re seeing some really dirty playing on both sides. Perhaps you didn’t see this piece by Michael Kinsley in Politico a couple of days ago:

    The Republicans have chosen to make a major issue out of the fact that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid lives in an apartment in the Ritz-Carlton condominiums in Washington DC. It is a one-bedroom apartment on the second floor. Reid also owns two properties in Nevada, his home state. But presumably his apartment in Washington is where he stays when he’s here. Reid’s opponent, Sharron Angle, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have built a huge imaginary narrative on this fragile base in which Reid “lives large” in DC, partying with supermodels, while his constituents suffer.

    In my Politico column on Tuesday, I raised the question of where Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell, who will become Majority Leader if the Republicans carry the day on November 2, lives when he’s in Washington. It turns out that he owns a three-bedroom house with a carriage house on Capitol Hill. Harry Reid’s apartment is worth $1,066,000 according to the real estate website zillow.com. Mitch McConnell’s house is worth $1,142,000. If Harry Reid is living large, Mitch McConnell is living larger. And the fact that Republicans apparently didn’t’ think about or didn’t bother to check out McConnell’s situation before piling on Reid shows how phony the whole “Harry Reid Lives at the Ritz” business really is.

The poll numbers go back and forth in Nevada each day (Angle has a 4 point lead this morning, but this will probably switch again this afternoon and go back the other way tomorrow. Adam Nagourney in the NY Times said this about Angle:

    She has struggled to explain a number of past positions, including calling for the phasing out of Social Security, discussion of “second amendment remedies” to deal with an out of control Congress, and coming out against extension of unemployment benefits. Mr. Reid is highly unpopular in his home state and his strategy has been clear from the start: To present Ms. Angle as an unacceptable alternative even to someone that many voters don’t like. (Keep in mind: Nevada voters have the option of voting for “none of the above,” which can only help Mr. Reid.)

Hmmm. It doesn’t look good for Reid. Then I read Jon Ralston’s piece this morning in the Las Vegas Sun:

    Atmospherics are terrible for Reid, but he will hold on

    Harry Reid or Sharron Angle is dead, last in an occasional series:

    It just feels as if Reid is going to lose.

    Forget the enthusiasm gap — that word is too mild. There is a passion gap in this race that is palpable. You don’t find many people shivering with excitement to vote for Reid. But the feverish animation of voters hot to oust Reid is unlike anything I have experienced in nearly 25 years of covering politics. And it seems to have been building since January, evidenced by Reid’s inability to move his highly elevated disapproval rating.

    It just feels as if he is going to lose.

    But I don’t think he will. Why?

    First, let me be clear on this tradition of predictions. It is not a wish list but a walking out on a limb, so I can either crow afterward or eat same. I base them on data I am privy to and my gut. I have had much success in the past — look it up. But if ever there were a year for my lifetime batting average to take a hit, this is the one.

    So take this for what it’s worth:

    Harry Reid is the most resilient figure in Nevada political history. He should not even be here. He lost a U.S. Senate race in 1974, embarrassed himself in a mayoral race in 1975 and should have lost his re-election bid in 1998. But he found a way to win 12 years ago, and he will again Tuesday.

    How? Let me count the ways:

    Considering they were dealing with a moribund politician, and one who was sure to make their job more difficult during the year with his spontaneous effusions, Reid’s handlers have run one of the most spectacular campaigns in history at all levels: The turnout machine is formidable. The TV has been pitch perfect. The strategy — to peel moderate Republicans and independents who might not like their guy away from Angle — has worked.

    And, perhaps equally important, Republicans managed to nominate the one person this year who could lose to Reid.

    Angle is a natural retail campaigner in small political subdivisions. But that’s not what a Senate race is about. And her campaign never could find a comfortable way to reconcile her past, controversial statements — they tried massage, change and deny — and she made plenty more during the campaign (Sharia law here, Canada’s terrorist conduit, Latinos-in-ads amnesia).

    In the end, if she loses, I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee’s primary win — she had a double-digit lead in June polls — were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance.

    One more thing: Republicans do not have the huge turnout advantage in early voting they should in a wave election — under 4 points. And all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on.

    It’s possible none of this made any difference, that Reid has been dead all along and no amount of campaign brilliance or Angle exposure could resuscitate him. The hatred is palpable, the discontent bubbling over. But I think he finds a way to survive.

    The result: Reid, 47 percent; Angle, 45 percent; rest, 4 percent; none of the above, 4 percent.

So we have two days to watch these and other campaigns… I’m keeping a close eye on Manchin (D) vs. Raese (R) here in West Virginia, and that looks like a close one, too. We’ll see.

There may be better ways to spend a weekend than mellowing out on the shores of Lake Malawi listening to good music, but right now I can’t think of any.  The water was warm, the weather hot, the nights balmy, the company good, and the craic great.  The Lake of Stars music festival has established itself as one of the most exciting music festivals in Africa in recent years and the location – on the shores of the lake on a broad stretch of beach beside Nkpola Lodge and campsite could hardly be bettered.  This year’s festival was opened by the Minister for Tourism who sky-dived onto the beach for the opening ceremony and was attended by c. 3,000 revelers.
Stars of the Saturday night line-up of the 3 day festival were the Noisettes and their lead singer Shingai Shoniwa, whose dynamic stage presence owed much to Diana Ross and Grace Jones and their music something to Jimmy Hendrix and Rory Gallagher.  It would be interesting to know more about how the Malawian members of the audience, coming from such a male-dominated society, reacted to such a dominant female presence but the overall audience response was rapturous.

Other headline acts included Oliver Mtukudzi (Zimbabwe’s answer to the ageless Leonard Cohen?) and Peter Mawanga who seemed rather self-obsessed and moralizing on stage. Unfortunately two local groups, the black Missionaries and Lucius Banda, didn’t play because of a dispute over expenses.    In general there was music for all ages and tastes although it was notable that the racial mix of the audience and those most actively dancing varied from act to act.

View from the back of the stage area!

Holding a music festival in one of the poorest (Human Development index ranking of 160) and most unequal societies (UN GINI index ranking of 62) in the world may seem to be in poor taste to some, as few local people will have been able to afford the tickets at c. €35 even if the overall audience mix seemed c. 50:50 black and mzungu (white).  As recently as 2001 a popular young musician and national icon, Evison Matafale, died in police custody after he had been critical of then President Muluzi; and the relationship between the arts, freedom of expression, and the Government of the day has often not been an easy one.

Market at the entrance to the concert

Although now a multi-party democracy, the political repression of the President Banda years has been followed by the economic depression of subsequent governments which instituted neo-liberal market “reforms” and eliminated food subsidies (at IMF/World Bank insistence) which contributed to the manifold increase in food prices and widespread malnutrition.

Malawi also has one of the most serious public health crises in the world with AIDS, TB, Malaria and many other tropical diseases rife.  Other problems can be traced to poor childhood nutrition with stunted growth and ongoing medical complications arising from poor nutrition in the crucial early months and years of development.  

Despite this, the Government has mandated the opening of a dialysis unit (after two earlier abortive attempts) in Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre  despite the fact that it will absorb c. 20% of the hospital pharmacy budget for c. 20 patients in a hospital with 1,000 beds and up to 2,000 in-patients at any one time (the “extras” sleeping under beds and in corridors or wherever possible).

Senior aid figures opine that resources would be far better targeted at infant nutrition programmes and Ireland has recently announced its continued support for a programme to improve agricultural productivity through improved inputs (e.g. seeds) and farming methods.

Malawi is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa, with a population of roughly 14 Million – similar to Mozambique in an area one tenth the size.  This has resulted in huge pressures on available land and water resources with deforestation, soil erosion, and over-fishing chronic and worsening problems.

Some of the locals were unimpressed by the music on offer!

Economic development is hindered by a relative lack of mineral resources and a political system which has historically favoured cronyism amongst the political and economic elite.  Thus the railway network is neglected whilst a lot of resources are pumped into the road system allegedly because of the close links between the political elite and road haulage companies.

Chronic and recurrent diesel and petrol shortages exacerbate the problems confronting businesses in the region, while the overstretched ESCOM struggles to meet electricity demand, with regular scheduled and unscheduled power outages, forcing many businesses and homes to install expensive and fuel-inefficient backup generators.  Wind and Solar power sources are unexploited on any scale.  Even in large towns like Blantyre, water shortages are a routine feature of daily life and most homes and businesses which can afford it rely on reserve water tanks.

Tourism is still in its infancy, and Malawi does not feature on most lists of key countries for wildlife, activity or more general tourism.  Yet its National Parks are increasingly well stocked with game, with local co-operatives now gaining a share of revenue and helping to reduce the incidence of poaching.  Lake Malawi is the most bio-diverse lake in the world with over 1000 species of fish (mostly cichlids) identified, and that before its remarkable depths of up to 700M have been fully explored.  

Bilharzia (schistosomiasis) is present in many locations in the lake (chiefly shallow, marshy, stagnant areas near human habitation) but can be effectively treated by a single dose of praziquantel given c. 3 months after exposure. The presence of Crocodiles and Hippos in some locations can be a more pressing concern but can be avoided with local knowledge. (We were advised to leave the water by 5.00pm  at one beech as the local Hippos crossed that bay after dark.  Smaller crocs are generally not regarded as a threat although we did see one man with what looked like a (healed) crocodile bite scar on his leg.)

Lake Malawi is part of the Great Rift Valley stretching from Ethiopia down to South Africa and the cradle of almost all known instances of early human kind.  Fossilised evidence of pre-human footprints date to 3.6 Million years ago and Homo Rudolfenis remains – dated c. 2.5 Million years ago – have been found at the northern end of lake Malawi at Karonga.  Some Bantu migrations have been traced as far back as c. 1,000 AD but slavery still occurred until the late 19th Century and its abolition is one of the more positive legacies of colonialism.

Some might argue that tourism is the more modern form of colonialism but there is no doubt that Malawi’s current economic strategy is to obtain foreign currency wherever they can get it.  Whether tourism will exacerbate the current extreme rich/poor differentiation or result in a net benefit to the entire society is something that the Malawian people and their political system must ultimately determine for themselves.

Certainly  the Minister for Tourism, in his welcome to the festival goers, was in no doubt about the value of music events such as the Lake of Stars, to enhance his country’s cultural standing in the eyes of the international music community and promoting the “Malawian tourism product”. Hopefully his government has learned the lesson that silencing dissenting artists and musicians voices is not the way to further these objectives.

Jon Stewart and Frank Rich both spent the weekend before the midterms telling us that the Tea Party is really not reality. They tell us it is a mirage created with funhouse mirrors and Koch Brothers’ money. If we could just ignore the media we’d know that the opposition isn’t really a “pumpkin assed forehead eyeball monster” and that they “lack the numbers and financial clout to muscle their way into the back rooms of Republican power.”

We’ll have to wait to see how the elections turn out. Maybe not only the media but the polls have it all wrong. Maybe the primaries were a false sign. Maybe the Tea Party candidates will falter all over the country. Maybe they’ll be co-opted as soon as they get to Washington DC and will turn into well-behaving and sensible legislators like Bob Bennett and Bob Inglis and Lisa Murkowski. That worked out pretty well for us during the Bush years, so what do we have to worry about? Or, maybe, we can’t all get along. Maybe, we won’t be able to “queeze one by one into a mile-long, 30-foot wide tunnel carved underneath a mighty river” because it will turn out that the “selfish jerk(s) who zip up the shoulder and cut in at the last minute” are not so rare and were not scorned, but elected to high office. Maybe the Senate rules are such that the upper chamber cannot function with people like Rand Paul and Sharron Angle and Mike Lee and Joe Miller and Ken Buck joining with the likes of Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn. No one could have predicted that these people would actually carry though with their promises.

The Tea Party isn’t a mirage. It isn’t something that the Trent Lotts of the world can control. If it were, Mike Castle and Charlie Crist would be cruising to election to the U.S. Senate. When you put people in government, particularly when you put them into government with six-year terms, you change that government. Whatever heat-fever of passion put them in there doesn’t break as suddenly as it arose. It stays on. It metastasizes. It eats away at the flesh of its host. In this case, it will paralyze its host, and nothing will get done. We won’t be politely waving each other through as we all go about making the little compromises we make every day just to get to work.

Go out and vote. Vote because Stewart’s happy vision may be inspiring but it ain’t happening. Vote because even if Frank Rich were right that the Tea Party will be co-opted, that only gets us back to the Bush years. Vote because I asked you to while other people told you everything would be okay if you just turn off cable news. It won’t be okay. It won’t be anything remotely resembling okay.

Nate Silver says we have a 16% chance of holding the House of Representatives and will most likely lose 53 seats. How do you feel about that? How do you feel about this? Forget Olbermann’s commentary. Just focus on his accumulation of quotes and what it means for the country. Then compare it to what went on today on The Mall. What is going to happen on Tuesday, as will only become clear in retrospect, is the complete repudiation of everything Stewart stands for and everything those ralliers believe in.

I watched Jon Stewart’s speech at the end of the Sanity/Fear event in Washington DC. I didn’t really disagree with anything Stewart was saying. But, then, I didn’t disagree with Rodney King when he asked why we all couldn’t just get along with each other. There is a false equivalence in suggesting that the two parties in this country are both guilty of eschewing compromise and reason. I don’t think anyone is going to like what Stewart had to say. The right won’t like it because it was Jon Stewart saying it. The left won’t like it because he didn’t once suggest that his audience go out and vote and because it smelled like High Broderism. The media will hate it because his primary message is that the media is stoking fear and making us all act insane. Yet, it’s hard to fault Stewart for his idealism. And he’s funny. I understand why he chose not to be partisan in his message, but a rally of left-leaning people on the Saturday before a wipe-out right-wing landslide election day might have at least mentioned that it’s important for people who value reason to get out and vote…for whomever.

Cross-posted at WinningProgressive

Tuesday’s elections are going to be won or lost at the margins.  The polls show that virtually all of the key races out there are within or near the margin of error.  While Republicans are holding slim leads among “likely” voters, Democrats tend to hold the lead when all registered voters are counted.  In addition, it appears that many of the polls are underestimating Democratic strength by not polling people who only use cell phones.  Cell phone only voters tend to be young people, which is a demographic that leans strongly toward the Democrats, but which are also less likely to vote.

The bottom line is that getting out our vote is absolutely critical to making sure that we wake up on November 3 to continued Democratic majorities in Congress.  And getting out the vote is something that all of us can help do.  Numerous studies show that door-to-door canvassing can increase turnout by as much as 10-15% among voters who are contacted, and by 5% among other voters in those households.  And phonebanking can be nearly as effective as canvassing in mobilizing people to vote.

Fortunately, the Democrats have put together perhaps the largest GOTV effort for a mid-term election in history.  But this effort will only work if all of us get involved in it over these final 72 hours.  So:

1. If at all possible, take all or some of Election Day off from work so that you can help turn out the vote.

2. Sign up to do door-to-door canvassing.

3. Call voters to help remind them to vote Democratic.

4. Forward this post to your family and friends and urge them to help out.

5. Get offline once you have done the above. Turn off your TV. Even close your books, newspapers and magazines, and help Get Out The Vote!

As Scott Urb over at the Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott blog recently pointed out, numerous elections throughout history have been decided by extremely small margins.  For example, Al Franken won the Senate seat in Minnesota by 312 votes, and President Bush was declared the winner of Florida by 537 votes in 2000.

With this year’s elections so close, let’s make sure we all do everything we can to ensure that we wake up on November 3 with the Democratic majorities intact, rather kicking ourselves for not doing more.

Okay, barcoding every species’ DNA is just kind of creepy. I’m not sure exactly why this creeps me out, but it does.

Every species, from extinct to thriving, is set to get its own DNA barcode in an attempt to better track the ones that are endangered, as well as those being shipped across international borders as food or consumer products.

Researchers hope handheld mobile devices will be able to one day read these digital strips of rainbow-colored barcodes — much like supermarket scanners — to identify different species by testing tissue samples on site and comparing them with a digital database.

The International Barcode of Life Project (iBOL), which says it is the world’s first reference library of DNA barcodes and the world’s largest biodiversity genomics project, is being built by scientists using fragments of DNA to create a database of all life forms.

“What we’re trying to do is to create this global library of DNA barcodes — snippets, little chunks of DNA — that permit us to identify species,” Alex Smith, assistant professor of molecular ecology at the University of Guelph’s Biodiversity Institute of Ontario, about 90 km (56 miles) west of Toronto.

At least we’ll know what kind of fish we’re eating, for a change.

Does this show more contempt for the press or the voter?

She is in Las Vegas for some campaign appearances and Reporter Nathan Baca caught up with her just after she landed at McCarran International Airport.

There have been major policy questions that remain unanswered from Angle’s campaign. Voters have seen Angle’s views and ideas on improving Nevada’s economy, but the topics of national security and the role the men and woman at Nellis Air Force Base must play in two wars remain unknown.

We’ve tried to go to her public events and ask, but she won’t answer. We’ve tried to call and email her campaign, but they won’t answer. Now, we’re finding her at the airport, still trying to get answers.

“I think when it comes to major policy issues, the people of Nevada are most concerned about our jobs, our homes and our economy,” she said.

“If you want to be one of 100 U.S. Senators that are deciding on war powers and on ratifying treaties, which is what a Senator has to do, you have to answer these questions,” said Reporter Nathan Baca.

“Well, certainly. And I’ll answer those questions when I’m the Senator,” replied Angle.

We asked Angle further questions about her desire for the United States to quit and leave the United Nations. She refused to answer our questions about that topic, instead saying she “wanted us to help her get out the vote.”

Have we gotten to the point that the press is held in such low regard that a candidate actually benefits by refusing to answer their questions? I hope that the rally today can really restore sanity.