Earlier today BooMan talked about this CQ Politics article showing three scenarios in 2010: The Dems lose 30 seats in the House and keep Congress, the Dems lose 50 seats in the House and lose it but keep the Senate, and the worst-case scenario where the Dems lost 65-70 seats and the Senate as well.
BooMan said:
I don’t like any of these three scenarios. Can I send them back?
You’d be wise to keep them, old friend. Because if today’s Gallup likely voter poll models are any indication, things will be even worse come Election Day.
It breaks down like this: Recall Nate Silver’s likely voter to House seat breakdown from April:
So, for example, if the House popular vote were exactly tied, we’d expect the Democrats to lose “only” 30 seats on average, which would be enough for them to retain majority control. It would take about a 2.5 point loss in the popular vote for them to be as likely as not to lose control of the chamber. So Democrats probably do have a bit of a cushion: this is the good news for them.
Indeed, today’s Gallup poll shows the registered voter numbers giving the Republicans a 3-point edge, which would put them just over what they needed to regain the House on Nate’s chart there.
But that’s the registered voter generic ballot numbers.
This is all about Gallup’s likely voter generic ballot numbers.
And here’s where the guillotine falls.
Gallup’s generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup’s first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios.
Holy shit.
Remember, Republicans need a 3 point lead in the generic ballot model to win the House back. The two Gallup scenarios are R+13…and R+18.
Going back to Nate’s chart, that would give the Republicans 80+ seats under the high-turnout scenario…and would be off Nate’s chart on the low-turnout scenario, but 95+ Republican seats gained.
Armageddon.
Big column of Teabagger fire.
Forget the end of the Obama agenda, we’re talking the end of the Dems. If Gallup is anywhere close to correct on its likely voter models, then we’re fucked with a jackhammer, people.
Gallup is convinced that the turnout for the Dems is going to be so godawfully miserable that the Republicans will be given complete control of Congress again.
They are convinced that we are so demoralized, that the country will jump off the cliff and burn, burn, burn.
If you know anybody, anybody at all who is of voting age, get them out to the fucking polling place this November. Call them now. Show them this article. Show them the Gallup numbers and Nate’s model.
Show them that they’re calling for the Republicans to wipe us out in Congress.
Get them scared enough to get out there and vote like your country depended on it.
Because if Gallup is right, it does.
Knock, knock, America. We’re about to apathy ourselves into extinction.
Fuck that. I am not going out without a fight. I’m getting people out to vote. I’m calling people. I’m making OFA runs here in the NKY for Navy vet John Waltz for Congress and I’m getting the word out to the rest of you that the only thing that matters in the end is you getting your ass out there to vote.
If we stay home, we die. Gallup says we will to the point of Republican domination of this country, leaving Obama at their mercy.
This little story of hope and change didn’t end in 2008, folks. So it’s time for all of us to put aside our differences and get out there and meet that wall head on. Don’t care if you like Hillary or Obama. Don’t care how you feel about his record not being good enough. Don’t care how you feel about Rahm Emanuel or Robert Gibbs or Elena Kagan or Tim Geithner or Kathleen Sebelius or Elizabeth Warren. Don’t give a shit about how you feel about hippie punching or the public option or Pakistan or Park51 or TARP or any of that.
We sack up or get fucked up on Election Day.
Make a choice to make a difference. Vote.
They’re already counting us out to the point of our annihilation.
Time to change history.
Again.
