There are intended and unintended consequences of the Party of No Strategy that was hatched by Mitch McConnell prior to Obama’s inauguration.
“Their goal,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the Democratic whip, “is to slow down activity to stop legislation from passing in the belief that this will embolden conservatives in the next election and will deny the president a record of accomplishment.”
The strategy is intended to fire up the Republican base, but also to demoralize the Democratic base. It’s also intended to keep independents from seeing what Congress produces as the result of compromise.
“It was absolutely critical that everybody be together because if the proponents of the [health care] bill were able to say it was bipartisan, it tended to convey to the public that this is O.K., they must have figured it out,” Mr. McConnell said about the health legislation in an interview, suggesting that even minimal Republican support could sway the public. “It’s either bipartisan or it isn’t.”
Mr. McConnell said the unity was essential in dealing with Democrats on “things like the budget, national security and then ultimately, obviously, health care.”
By refusing to allow debate on anything, the Senate Republicans have forced the Democrats to make their vulnerable moderates walk the plank on every major piece of legislation. But that’s a mirror image of what McConnell has done to his less-vulnerable moderates. An unintended consequence is that the middle of the road has become a highway of death. On the left, Blanche Lincoln is headed to an epic defeat because she has pleased neither the progressive base nor the conservative center. On the right, candidates like Charlie Crist, Mike Castle, Lisa Murkowski, and Bob Bennett have been bounced out of the party. This phenomenon is what leads Gerald Seib to talk about Middle of the Road radicals.
In American politics, people tend to think of “radicals” as those on the ideological fringes of the left or right. But what happens when the radicals are smack in the middle of the political spectrum?
That may be the picture we’re looking at today. Many of those seriously estranged from the political system and its practitioners appear to sit in the political center. They are shaping this year’s campaign…
In one sense, these middle of the road voters are not shaping the campaign. After all, the candidates that would reflect their views did horribly in the Republican primaries and not much better in the Democratic primaries. But, that’s not what Seib is referring to.
But the other big force is political independents—voters who have no particular allegiance to either party and who don’t tend to have strong ideological leanings. These are the voters who drifted toward the Democrats in 2006, allowing them to take over control of the House from Republicans. Then they jumped firmly onto Barack Obama’s bandwagon in 2008, ousting Republicans from the White House and making Mr. Obama the first Democrat to win a majority of the national vote since Jimmy Carter.
Now they have turned again, and are pushing the system the other way. “For the third national election in a row, independent voters may be poised to vote out the party in power,” summarized the Pew Research Center in a recent study of independent voters.
These independent voters have become something like a band of nomad marauders, roaming across the American political landscape, hungry, angry and taking out their frustrations on the villages of the Democrats and Republicans in turn.
The Republicans may have rejected the candidates who would best represent the middle of the road, but the polls indicate that independents are going to vote for the radical candidates anyway.
Despite Obama’s decision to honor the constituency that elected him by keeping on Robert Gates and bringing other centrist Republicans into his cabinet, and despite making an effort to win bipartisan support for his agenda, he has failed to convince the independent swing-voter that he’s on their side. This is what all the racially-charged birth certificate-ACORN-Shirley Sherrod has been about. It’s what all the charges of socialism are about. It’s what the Party of No Strategy is about. All of this crap has done what it was intended to do.
I can’t think of a way the strategy could have failed. It was pretty close to foolproof. But it’s also a Faustian bargain. The costs of injecting all this cynicism, fear, and hate into our political discourse will be felt for a very long time. And, I am optimistic that it will do real damage to the Republicans in the long-term. If we had better turnout in midterms, it would hurt them right now.
This phenomenon is what leads Gerald Seib to talk about Middle of the Road radicals.
Seriously, Boo? The only thing your post tells me is that Tommy Friedman should sue Seib for trademark infringement. Radical center? Seriously? The center is the status quo. And that’s untenable.
Given the present state of affairs, I’m surprised that we don’t see more evidence of a third party. The door is wide open…
Except there’s no door. Our crappy system doesn’t allow one.
it’s a stupid term, but it makes sense if you consider that the landscape is littered with dead armadillos. In other words, the centrist is being treated as a radical by the electorate.
Regular people have no idea what left, right and center mean. Instead, it gets defined by David Broder and Fox news. These terms actually have significance cobbled together over roughly the past 300 years of western civilization. Defining Reid as left and Lindsay Graham as center is an act of political aggression.
I think this reminds me of a post by Digby the other day about the nature of American politics and the absence of some “silent majority”; or rather that the “silent majority” is more myth than reality. That centrists are being stepped over, seems to support Digby’s theory, as are citizens become more engaged–sides are being chosen. However, I would caution from stating what happened to Mike Castle or Charlie Crist(my governor) is the same as what happened to Blanche Lincoln.
correction. “theory. As centrists . . .”
citizens not centrists in the above corection . . . sorry
Lots of good stuff in that post Boo. I guess my question is whether the Obama team and congress were out in front of the Party of No strategy or not. I had assumed that they were blindsided by this, really only understanding the depths of what McConnel and Gregg were up to by fall of last year when the health care debate was going from bad to worse. Based on Durbin’s quote, sounds like they knew this pretty early on, but there really wasn’t anything that could be done. I don’t think that’s right. I think the Obama administration got outplayed on the Party of No strategy (that’s obvious) and maybe listening to Progressives would have worked out better. Progressives are seen as not serious because they scorn bipartisanship but maybe we’ve just been paying closer attention to what the GOP has been up to since, oh, about 1968.
And I have a problem with the term radical center or even labeling Lincoln and Bayh as moderates. They are vigorous defenders of the status quo and corporate interests. They are OK with change as long as it preserves and protects the interests of the status quo. I think, objectively speaking, in political science academic terms, that makes them small “c” conservatives. We move the goal posts way too much when we let them be defined as the center.
Hindsight is 20/20, but there should have been a war room in Congress and the White House to figure out ways to check mate the Party of No strategy. Trying to maneuver the levers of power and pretend evetrything was normal when McConnel and Gregg had orchestrated a radical shift in the caucus dynamics of the Repbulican party was political malpractice. Progressives are ready and willing to help the President govern and be part of the solution against the Party of No strategy- but we need a gameplan that faces up to the reality of what the GOP is up to.
Progressives are ready and willing to help the President govern and be part of the solution against the Party of No strategy- but we need a gameplan that faces up to the reality of what the GOP is up to.
Bing-f-ckin’-o!! When HolyJoe backed Cranky McSame, and hearing Palin’s nonsense on the campaign trail, did anyone really thank the Republicans would negotiate in good faith after? I get that Obama had to play the bipartisan thing, at least publicly. The problem was they didn’t privately have any kind of back-up plan. And that’s inexcusable. Also, are the D.C. Democrats really surprised at the rise of the Teahadists? They shouldn’t be because since JFK, there is a section of Republicans that can’t abide by the fact that they won’t always control the WH, that they automatically see a Democrat in the WH as illegitimate. Digby has been writing about that forever.
Not that many independents actually exist. Only 10% of voters are truly “independent.” When the media talks about independent, they act like 30-40% are independents. You should know this…
GOTV taken to a new level. Much like the Teabaggers. Most of them would have voted Republican anyway. The Teabagging just gets more of them out there.
My question is, did McConnell get this “bipartisanship” bullshit from Obama, or the other way ’round? I think this nonexistent “value” will be the flaw that dooms Obama to a failed presidency unless he finds a way to get over it. Now he’s trying to attack the GOP for its strategy of NO, but it’s probably too late. If he’d done this from the beginning I think we’d probably be seeing better outcomes now.
If “bipartisanship” were really such a good thing, we wouldn’t need parties at all, would we? How that simple logic is so opaque to a Constitutional scholar is beyond me. Can somebody tell me what “bipartisan” even means? That you make slaves 3/5 of a person instead of 2/5? That you allow free speech on even-numbered days? That you only give Social Security to white folks or to Baptists? Fact is, there’s no such thing unless we decide to do away with the party system altogether. And yet Obama obsesses on the this myth like a Trekkie on a hunger strike to release Bones from a Klingon prison. It would almost be funny if it wasn’t so goddamn fucking lamentable.
In my world, there would be bipartisanship, and what I mean is this:
On climate change we get cap and trade instead of a carbon tax, we invest some money into clean coal, and we put money into nuclear/solar/wind. That’s a bipartisan climate bill. It’s not ideal, it’s not the best policy, but it gives and takes a little from both sides.
That’s not reality, but it’s just an example.
Now, where that stops is obviously where you just said. Moderacy for its own sake is not a virtue. When one side preaches genocide and the other advocates peace, the middle is not where anyone should want to be.
Yeah, of course you compromise when you have to to get something done. That’s just negotiation, which can be a good thing in some cases and not in others. But it has nothing to do with “bipartisanship” as a value.
The value is putting the good of the country first as you honestly see it, and honestly considering all ideas and opinions. It’s the honesty part that’s the issue, not “partisanship”.
The problem is that the Southern Strategy has almost come to full fruition. So negotiation used to mean being bipartisan, as both parties would come together to get something done; typically it was the Conservative Coalition of Southern Democrats and Republicans.
That went to the wayside now ever since the 1970’s. Now bipartisan is meaningless because both parties are ideologically bent one way, especially the Republicans.
So in the contemporary it’s useless as a word, but it still means “to moderate between both extremes.” Problem: one party contains all stripes, the other party has theocratic nationalists.
It would hurt them badly. It makes a lot of sense for Dems to go for heavy turnout in supposedly safe Republican districts. Play on complacency.
But Democratic voters are more likely to be reluctant to vote because of the assumption that Democrats are going to lose big. It’s a huge self-fulfilling prophecy that I hope OFA and other GOTV campaigns can break.
There are no middle-of-the road voters. There are voters who are independent for a variety of reasons. There are voters who are completely non-ideological (in their minds); they are seeking independence from ideological thinking. There are voters who are voting their self-interests in a bewildering variety of ways. There are voters who are ticket-splitters, almost randomly, because they are seeking independence from the two major political voters.
The “middle-of-the-road” voters mythology is just a way of whipping Democrats to corporate interests.
Obama’s bipartisanship has shown itself to be part of several elements of a strategy:
(1) Hold over key appointees (Gates being the most prominent) to ensure continuity and provide time for Obama to get up to speed on the issues.
(2) Provide a landing spot for sympathetic Republicans to pursue their own agendas (La Hood and John McHugh)
(3) Keep your friends close and your enemies closer (a whole bunch of rhetorical bullcrap about various GOP Senators)
(4) Put Republican proposals in front of them to reject and for Democratic moderates to vote on (healthcare reform, cap-and-trade, tax cuts, “clean coal”, nuclear).
(5) Get bipartisan votes on funding for winding down Iraq and eventually Afghanistan by having a date certain and a practical strategy for getting out.
(6) Getting Republican appointees to do the “Nixon to China” play (Gate slashing $100 billion from planned DoD expenditures.
The bipartisanship rhetoric and actions have driven partisan Democrats and progressives nuts and the GOP into lockstep.
We are getting very close to seeing whether this was a misjudgment or a winning rope-a-dope strategy. Momentum is slowly turning towards Democrats. And there is a salable line “Secret Donors have something to HIDE and expect something in return for their secret
donationsbribes!” (h/t Ministry of Truth on dKos)Will the Democrats go there?
The foreign money to campaigns has hit a nerve.
People don’t like it and polling shows that strongly which is good.
Obama has spoken to it and it took hold.
You can’t unring the bell.
The problem the CoC has is that the press is interested in it because they see a bit of drama forming and they continue to ask questions about where the money is coming from.
If Obama went full out in opposition to the Republicans in Congress, he would lose and have no place to take a stand.
By not being confrontational and loud, he is able to at least try to work with them to get legislation passed.
He got HCR and the financial bill passed.
Those are huge changes that will be taking effect.
Obama can’t make the Senate Republicans do anything.
I don’t know that I agree that there is no way this strategy could have failed. There may not have been any way from ceding them SOME ground — after all, the party in power always gets blamed for the failures of the government — but it may well have been made less successful than it was.
Counteracting this would have taken a FAR more aggressive approach. We would’ve had to aggressively call them out on their obstructionism, blame them ceaselessly for their allegiance to those in power, and (in the campaign season) go negative — especially with them fielding such miscreants as candidates.
And yet…there was zero chance of this happening, for several reasons: first, Democrats are such habitual chickenshits that nothing, it seems, will snap them out of it; second, we had a small cadre of our own party joining the GOP in obstructionism, and we would’ve had to deal with that using an iron fist, the way McConnell does, which Dems will not do; and third, and most important, it runs completely counter to the instincts and worldview of our President, who is so brilliant at seeing both sides of an argument and trying to bring everyone together, but has much more difficulty dealing with the radicalism of anarchic hyper-capitalists and barely-hidden racists that command the opposition party.
Also, doing this may well have prevented any of the policy gains we’ve made over the past 2 years. I can’t imagine passing a health care reform bill during an overt war with the GOP.
I will say that I agree with you that in the long run — perhaps as soon as 2012 — this will hurt the GOP badly. It’s just too bad that by then Russ Feingold will be out of the Senate.
They also would have had to aggressively bring their bills to a vote in the Senate and beating Reps over the head with them when they obstructed popular measures. Instead, their strategy looked more like, “well, we wouldn’t want to embarrass them”.
I will hold my nose and vote for a Nelson or Lincoln or Landrieu even though they are against many of the things I see as important to this country because they will also vote the right way on a Sotomayor or Kagan or some other issues. I don’t have a big issue with having a big tent party that ranges as broadly as our caucas in the Senate.
Where I draw the line, is when the stand with an unprecented party of no to filibuster bills or put holds on nominees. Look, vote against them for whatever your reason is but for God’s sake, let there be a vote!
Lincoln was primaried for this reason and regrettably she won only to face certain defeat in general. The folks of Arkansas are given a choick between a real Republican and a pretend one and has Truman said, they choose the real thing every time.
The time may be here to purge the party of these Blue Dogs as they simply complicate matters. The focus needs to be dominating in states that are not in the south or Utah/Idaho. Maine for example will likely primary Snowe and look for the Teahadist to oust her.
There was a time I would have advocated reaching out to her quietly in advance to get her to switch parties to avoid the tea bagged but now, the hell with her. Get a real liberal in there because Maine is a state we have no excuse to be sending DeMint disciples to the Senate.
This was rambling sorry…..
Lots of typos and spelling errors above, sorry.
Another thing, the great independent voter is really a low information voter. Folks like us that spend too much time reading news and blogs and keeping up with issues are a very small number of the populace. Look at the ratings of Fox News vs. American Idol.
I understand people are busy and have families but somehow we have to increase citizen participation. It is hard to get good news unless you want to.
The network evening news is so limited in what they can do with the time constraints and the desire for ratings, what they put out is fluff.
So many places you go in waiting rooms have cable news on (often Fox) and rarely do you get any sort of journalism out of them.
So if a regular person doesn’t make an effort to get informed on the issues of the day, they either skip voting or follow whatever their “tribe” is doing at that time. This is what is scary. I don’t think the vast majority in the country realize the GOP has been taken over by extremists and will go into the mid-terms wanting to punish the party in power.
Independents? Could we be talking about people who are not for anything, without principles, except themselves? They ask: how can you help me, what have you done for me? Out, next.
At least a Republican says what he is against, everything perhaps, but at least he says so, no matter how stupid it is.
But independents? Who knows how to deal with them.