The Republicans’ strength is built on sand. It’s almost wholly rooted in Democratic apathy rather than any kind of genuine support from swing-voters. People still hate the Republicans and trust Democrats more on the issues. That’s why Pat Toomey’s lead has completely evaporated (.pdf) in Pennsylvania. He may be paying me for advertising through Google AdSense, but people aren’t buying his Wall Street agenda.

The race for Senate in Pennsylvania has seen dramatic movement over the last two months and Joe Sestak has now taken the slightest lead over Pat Toomey, 46-45. On PPP’s previous survey of the state, in mid-August, Toomey led by a 45-36 margin…

…In that August survey Toomey held a commanding lead with independents, 50-23. Sestak has picked up the support of virtually all of the undecided independents and has pulled into a virtual tie with Toomey with that voting group, trailing now only 49-48…

…Finally, as PPP is seeing across the country, the closer to the election we get the more Democratic voters are tuning in. In August those planning to vote in Pennsylvania this fall reported having voted for John McCain by a 1 point margin in 2008. Now the likely voter poll for this year supported Barack Obama by 4 points. That still suggests a large drop in Democratic turnout from 2008, but it may not be quite as dramatic as it appeared over the summer.

“This has become a toss up race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “No one would have expected that a month ago but just as he did in the primary Joe Sestak is closing strong. Whether he continues that momentum right on through election day or Pat Toomey can turn things back in his favor will be the ultimate determiner of who wins this race.”

Imagine what the polls would look like if Democrats weren’t wasting time talking about the neighboring Senate race in Delaware and, instead, shined a bright light on Toomey’s radical agenda. But don’t think all that energy is wasted. In the Philly suburbs, there is no question that O’Donnell’s antics, and the antics of loony Republican candidates across the country, are mobilizing Democrats. Pennsylvania is not an early-voting state, which is probably a good thing since Sestak is such a good closer. In Ohio, we’re fortunate that we have weeks of early-voting to help us find and turn-out our base for underperforming candidates, but here in Pennsylvania we may benefit from having the vote all on one day.

The race for Senate in Pennsylvania is now a dead heat, and that should be galvanizing for our organizers, and may help us save some House seats, as well.

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