It looks like crazy Joe Miller up in Alaska isn’t going to be able to seal the deal. His polling numbers have collapsed in the face of evidence that he’s basically a scoundrel.
“If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Joe Miller, Scott McAdams, Frederick Haase, Tim Carter, Ted Gianoutsos, or another candidate you have to write in, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?
The result? Scott McAdams surging ahead of Joe Miller with 29%, Joe Miller with 23%, and the write-in candidate (most of which are presumably Lisa Murkowski) with a small gain bringing her to 34%, and undecided voters still at 13%. This is the first time that McAdams has polled better than Miller, and he did it by six points, comfortably outside the margin of error of 4.8% – a watershed moment for the McAdams campaign.
Considering that Murkowski isn’t the only potential write-in candidate, and the inherent hassle and difficulty of correctly voting for a write-in candidate, and considering the margin of error, this race is now a toss-up between Murkowski and the Democrat, Scott McAdams. It would be a very fine thing indeed to pick up this seat for a full six-year term. It would offset the loss of Evan Bayh’s seat, or Lincoln’s, or Dorgan’s. It’s very painful to lose Senate seats because of their long terms, and that is why I believe they should always be challenged vigorously. You never know when a seemingly safe seat will become vulnerable, either through scandal, death or illness, or a simple shift in the mood of the electorate.
