Well, at least one expert thinks that President Obama will win reelection easily because of the economy. That might strike you as counterintuitive, since the economy sucks and there’s not much that can be done about it now that teabaggers have veto power over any new stimulus. I’m skeptical of election projections that take no account of the candidates. Presidential elections do seem to be won by the more likable candidate. At least, it seems that way to me. Of course, there are elections like Bush-Dukakis where neither candidate is very cuddly. They tend to be won by the candidate with the best attack ads.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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You also forget one other thing. Incumbents, even Presidents, tend to have an advantage unless things really go south. Which means that if Obama wants a second term, he’s going to have to take on McConnell and Orange Julius(and probably conflate the two) so people know that the Pukes are blocking everything and want the country to experience more economic pain.
Thats true and with a rebound the Repugs will try to take credit after Obama and the Dems did all the heavy lifting. They still try to take credit for the 90’s boom when Clinton was the one with political will and guts. By the time the scum took the house, in 1994, the hard work of tax hikes was over.
“Let me tell you the name of the game boy. Its called riding the gravy train.” They live by those lyrics.
I find it kind of funny that you quoted the one Pink Floyd song where the band members didn’t sing(at least sing lead).
Really who was it? I guess he was riding the gravy train.
Roy Harper.
Googling now.
Wow. Guess he was the Gravy Train.
🙂
We get to learn something new each day.
That album, “Wish You Were Here” was a favorite of mine as a kid. I’ll still dig out the recording when I’m in the mood for Pink Floyd.
I just burned it from itunes and I’m back in high school again! Thats what made me think of the lyrics. I love that album and Animals and Darkside of the Moon. I never knew about the Roy Harper vocals thanks for the enlightenment.
This prediction is predicated on the economy recovering. As Mitch McConnell and the Republicans’ actions over the past two years have made clear, the Republicans are going to do whatever they can to make sure the economy does not recover.
Therefore, it is critical that, rather than pretending we can negotiate with these folks, President Obama and the Democrats:
This makes sense to me, and it’s in line with recent experience. The key to getting re-elected is to have a recession early in your term. That’s what happened with Reagan. In 1982 the economy was weak, and Reagan looked vulnerable. In 1984, the economy was strong, and suddenly Reagan was the Great Communicator. On the other hand, the elder Bush had bad timing. The recession in his administration was fairly mild, but it couldn’t have happened at a worse time, in terms of his re-election.
Yes, but Reagan was partnered up with Democrats in Congress who didn’t want to see the country fail, even though there was a Republican president in office.
Obama is partnered up with Republicans in Congress who would rather see the country destroyed than see a Democrat succeed.
Something to keep in mind is that the “drown it in a bathtub” mentality means that in the abstract it’s good for the GOP if they wreck the place. The more the federal government is wrecked, the more people get disillusioned with the Fedearales, the easier it is to foist off the “government doesn’t do anything worthwhile” argument.
The economy is picking up. There I said it. Third quarter GDP will be revised up this week. Initial unemployment claims are down to spring levels. A lot of credit card debt has been paid down. This quarter looks good, there is a lot of pent up demand. Housing and the Repugs in congress (debt limit/gov shutdown other dumbass shit) are the wild cards.
The Repugs were rewarded for their wrecking of the economy. Obama and the Dems will be rewarded, finally, for the long awaited rebound. Which according to Professor Fair looks likely.
We have problems down the road including a party of the rich and corporations that do not want to pay their fair share of taxes, corporations shipping their jobs overseas and a bloated M.I.C. They are long term, two years out is what Sommer is writing about and where Professor Fair’s models are pointing. Yes, “Its the economy stupid!”
And where is the rebound coming from? It ain’t coming from housing. So any rebound will be temporary at best. And how are you going to bring unemployment down since the last two recoveries didn’t include a hiring surge.
Thats a good point may be all numbers and productivity. With a jobless recovery we will still have a very angry electorate. Housing is the other caveat.
Rebound is coming from American businesses, who cut expenses, thus increasing productivity and (hide your children, Progressives…dirty word coming…) PROFITS!
Yes…corporate profits will lead the recovery, but most corporations were scared to death of this anti-business administration.
Confidence among business leaders will now return due to “Repugs” ability to thwart Obama’s Big Government agenda, and the economy will improve.
Obama might very well win re-election, if he goes with the flow and abandons his leftist agenda.
“Anti-business environment”? What kind of corpo-fascist republican propaganda is that? Do you mean “regulating the banks so that they may be stopped from raping the taxpayer again?”
When people repeat mindless bullshit repukeliscum stupidity, they look stupid.
And that would be you, jackass.
Have you ever run a business?
Our business is being driven out of “Blue States” like California and Connecticut due to absolutely insane regulations
Compare the employment and growth rates of, say, California and Texas.
Hmmm…let’s see where California ends up after its most recent electoral decisions.
All I ever hear when you post is bullshit repukeliscum stupidity like Obama’s “leftist agenda”. You are obviously a total ignoramus. There is no leftist agenda ANYWHERE in the government, and you seem to be blaming the “leftist agenda” for incompentence of someone, goodness knows who.
In the last 10 years, fascist corpowhores have almost destroyed this country, and clearly the lesson that businesses CANNOT be left to run themselves has not sunk in. We need MORE REGULATION in many many areas, since most “honest businessment” are simply not honest.
There would have to be an actual “left” in America for there to be a “leftist agenda” methinks. 🙂
Now there are plenty of civilized places that actually allow for the possibility of a “leftist agenda” to be a reality – even among their political leaders. Perhaps one day we’ll try our hand at being so civilized. Until then we get Tory-style corporatists or rabid right-wing nationalists – neither of whose agendas I find at all acceptable.
How’s this for a leftist agenda…
I could go on. The above items certainly don’t belong to a Rightist, or Centrist, agenda.
Our business is being driven out of “Blue States” like California and Connecticut due to absolutely insane regulations
What regulations are those?
I heard a talk by a banker the other day whining about the new banking regulations. These regulations made the banks actually honor contracts, not use other bills to raise interest rates on credit cards, and enacted a host of consumer regulations. They did not go far enough, I thought.
The banker just flat out lied from the start to the finish. He claimed falsely that the new regulations would not allow banks to vet applications, that they would not allow banks to make decisions. In other words, it was repukeliscum propaganda about regulation from start to finish.
This is often the case with whining losers like Liberty who whine about regulation. They listen to fucking assholes like Rush, and simply do not think about why the regulation is VITALLY NEEDED. Most regulations are enacted for a simple easy reason: a business is filled with corrupt crocked businessmen who rip people off with unfair tactics and lies. I’m sure that Liberty falls into that group too.
And in case you haven’t noticed, Governor Goodhair has to close a $25 billion deficit. Care to explain that one? Since Texas has no one to blame but Pukes for that mess.
are going into a hole, and the Repukeliscum religion of never raising taxes means that they won’t be coming out soon.
I live now in SD. For the last 2 years, the SD budget hole was closed by using a handout from the Feds. Kristi Noem, the welfare queen who won the HoR election, accepted millions from the Feds, and then ran a successful campaign against the Federal welfare to the states. Now, of course, the Repukeliscum in the House have vowed to end this practice, plus they are going to end unemployment extensions, Medicare payments, any building projects whatsoever, and so forth.
Plus, they are a bunch of looters. Rather than building, they sell off valuable projects. That fascist in Indiana, Mitch Daniels, sold the Indiana toll road. It goes on and on.
Repukeliscum idiocy about money is as deep as the ocean and without end or limit. And when moronic assholes come in talking about “Obama’s leftist agenda,” I know that they are just a bunch of fucking whining losers. Liberty is just another incompetent “budinessman” blaming his incompetence on the Feds.
I have spent some time over the lasty few years looking at the models.
Okun’s Law says unemployment declines 1% for every 2% in GDP growth above that resulting from population increase. If we have 3% growth in 2011 and 2012 unemployment would be about 7.5%. When Obama took office it was 6.9%.
In January of 1983 Reagan’s approval rating was 36%. By December it was 54%. In that time unemployment went 10.8% to 8.3%. Reagan’s approval rating in November of 1984 was 57%, and unemployment was 7.2%, which was lower than when Reagan took office (7.5%).
My guess is that unemployment needs to get below at least 8 for Obama to be competitive. If it goes under 7 he will win easily.
The problem is that there are very good reasons to think Okun’s law isn’t working, and few right now see unemployment much below 9 in 2012.
And that means trouble.
Did anyone else catch the fact that the model assumes that tax cuts get extended for everyone and that such tax cuts will be a stimulus? Um, I’m heavily short whatever bets this guy is making- he’s staring at the numbers and missing the big picture: Obama is going to run on austerity and pragmatism. No one has ever had such a stupid reelection strategy. All bets are off.
Suggest this as well.
PPP’s first Virginia poll for the cycle has Obama up 4-5 points on any of the GOP field.
It’s early days and events can overtake blah, blah, blah, but I would point to the doubters that the Democratic party nominee has won 4 of the last 5.
When will you Progressives abandon the silly notion that Government “stimulus” creates wealth.
Bernake’s QE2 equals disaster…
Talk about Flat Earth.
LFA, a few months ago you made a comment to the effect that “Keynesian economics has been discredited”, which seems to be pretty much what you are saying here. I was curious then and I am curious now – what is the basis of your claim? As you can imagine, I disagree with you, but I am still interested to hear your argument. Thanks!!
You really don’t understand economics, do you? What creates wealth? tax cuts?
What kind of troll are you, anyway?
Why are you bothering with this li’l pond?
Why don’t you go and work on Glen Beck for a while?
Folks, if you look back at LFA’s comments, I don’t think you can call him a “troll”. He has a different point of view (which I heartily disagree with), but does not seem to be presenting himself in a disingenuous manner. I personally am happy to have the possibility of discussion with somebody I disagree with.
Idiots who talk about “Obama’s leftist agenda” are not here to have a discussion. They just want to start flame wars.
you are too credulous. LFA also has a Glen Beck type relationship with facts
Well, I never did get an answer to my question, so perhaps you are right.
a while back I never got a response to my disagreement with LFA’s claim that Stalin murdered three times as many Jews as Hitler.
Stalin killed three times as many people, not specifically Jews.
Is that any better?
Rae…thanks for the defense.
Of course, Keynesianism has been primarily discredited by free market economists, while still being revered by Progressive thinkers like Paul Krugman.
The best analysis that I have read that demonstrates the utter failure of Keynesian fiscal and monetary policy, especially during the Great Depression, was written by conservative writer Thomas Sowell. George Will has also written excellent articles exposing the notion that FDR and the New Deal were responsible for “ending” the Depression. In fact, they make a convincing argument that the Keynesian policies actually prolonged the Depression.
Likewise, I strongly feel that Obama’s stimulus has prolonged the Great Recession, and led to our current “Jobless Recovery”.
I am not trying to throw flames here…I just find it boring to post on Conservative website where everyone agrees with me!
I like it here, in this l’il pond!
It’s like home…
Emotionally, I relate to Progressives, who are for the little guy against all odds.
You are actually for grinding progressives under the enormous boot of corporate fascism. That’s your real love.
On the contrary, I believe a strong Progressive voice is needed to balance Conservative perspectives…we become blind when we do not see the point of view of the opposing side…You can’t find truth if you’re only listening to one perspective.
Some Progressives need to learn to not take the opposing arguments personally…
LFA, a few months ago you made a comment to the effect that “Keynesian economics has been discredited”, which seems to be pretty much what you are saying here. I was curious then and I am curious now – what is the basis of your claim? As you can imagine, I disagree with you, but I am still interested to hear your argument. Thanks!!
And then I’d like a brief discussion of the stupidest economic idea in the world: the Laffer curve. You would think with a name like that, people would have trouble taking it seriously.
LFA just interested in taking the discussion off track and provoking flames – which, btw, I believe is the definition of a troll, which one is well advised not to feed (though I’m enjoying your comments on this thread). also isn’t the Indiana toll road pretty messed up now?
In all these cases in which morons sold off assets which cost huge amounts to build, there is no difficulty attracting huge numbers of bidders. That is because the economics are totally insane. Generally, they are sold for perhaps 20-25 % of their actual value. The sellers (generally Repukeliscum looter governors) fill a budget hole for ONE YEAR by selling off an asset which puts the voters into a debtor situation for many many years.
In Chicago, that Repukeliscum idiot Daley (who some call a Democrat) sold the parking meter system to an eager buyer. Now, there are NEVER free days to park in Chicago. If you want to hold a street fare and stop parking, you must pay the parking meter company a huge fee to allow you to deprive them of revenue. It’s an insanely stupid idea, and never worth the money that you get for the temporary budget fix.
The book “Griftopia” by Matt Taibbi discusses this in great detail. I have not read the book, but am familiar with the economic analyses he discusses.
And I thank you for your compliment.
Book sounds great (as is Matt Taibbi). When speaking of repukelscum you can never use the words looters and looting too many times imo.
The toll road seems to be a considerably more expensive ride these days. Now that moronic Indiana voters have given both houses to the republiscum, the little guv will have free reign to sell off our state parks to developers as well. They’re already logging the state forests like mad.
“ITR Concession Co. makes the point that it does not have the power to raise tolls on its own. All increases for the next 72 years are laid out in schedules contained in its lease with the state.”
So, in other words, they have a guaranteed stream of revenue for the next 72 years, which allowed them to spend 3.8 billion to buy the road, and also spend 300 million currently to fix up the road.
They must be making BILLIONS over the 72 years. And, the morons in Indiana still believe this fascist crap spewed by assholes like liberty about “Obama’s fascist agenda”.
Yep, pretty disgusting, isn’t it? Indiana’s only bright spot at this point is Andre Carson.
Maybe there’s a run for senate or gov in his future.
can that deal be undone before the 72 years elapse? (is elapse a word?)
I noticed it was outrageously expensive, not using it at all any more.
Not trying to throw flames…merely trying to provide an alternate viewpoint.
I don’t know about the Indiana toll road…let me research it.
But the Laffer curve is true!
Tax cuts in 83 and 03 led to increased revenue for the Government.
Economic Growth, not tax rates, are the dominant variable in determining tax revenue…consequently, if the goal of tax policy is to collect tax revenue, that policy needs to be structured in a way that maximally promotes economic growth.
All I ever hear when you post is bullshit repukeliscum stupidity like Obama’s “leftist agenda”. You are obviously a total ignoramus. There is no leftist agenda ANYWHERE in the government, and you seem to be blaming the “leftist agenda” for incompentence of someone, goodness knows who.
In the last 10 years, fascist corporeality have almost destroyed this country, and clearly the lesson that businesses CANNOT be left to run themselves has not sunk in. We need MORE REGULATION in many many areas, since most “honest businessmen t” are simply not honest.
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