We lost the House and most of our Senate majority in the election this past November. There’s a school of thought that we did something wrong that allowed this to happen. Maybe the administration should have left health care reform for another day and focused much more intensely on the housing and unemployment crises. Maybe we paid insufficient attention to selling our accomplishments. Maybe we made too many compromises and wound up with a product that was unpopular on all sides. We can debate what went wrong, but what we shouldn’t do is argue that our primary responsibility was to retain our majorities. We had to make concrete progress while we had the power to make it. The Obama administration took bold action and that created a robust backlash. It is unlikely that we could have avoided a major backlash without eschewing bold action.
Most of the debate among Democrats is really between those who think we just finished an enormously successful Congress and those who are much more focused on all the seats we lost and how we can no longer compete in large swaths of the country. The most prevalent view in the blogosphere (i.e., among highly educated white progressives) is barely a blip on the national radar. That view is that the administration wasn’t bold at all, that it was actually quite timid, and that we lost many seats because our product was insufficiently progressive (or populist).
That doesn’t mean that the blogosphere is wrong, but I do think that the general attitude is detached from the reality facing anyone responsible for getting Democrats elected. There is a tendency to see a policy as sensible based on empirical evidence, and then to find some poll that shows that a policy is actually quite popular when viewed in a vacuum that doesn’t have to deal with the right-wing’s mighty media wurlitzer, or the challenges of campaign financing, or the divisions within the left-wing coalition. Something can be quite popular in the abstract but wind up being less popular than the plague after the corporate world gets done sending it through the media and political wringer. Too often, progressives fail to realize the challenges facing any politician who takes up their banner.
One way of putting this is that someone could have probably correctly predicted that the Democrats could pass health care reform but that it would cost them the House. It wouldn’t really matter how strong the reform was, it would still cost us the House. If we knew that in advance, we might choose to push for a stronger reform, figuring we should get the best possible policy in exchange for our loss of power. But, in reality, no one could be certain what would happen. I do, however, think this is a more plausible way of looking at the recent past than arguing that we would have done a lot better in the polls with an even stronger set of reforms. I think that’s wishful thinking.
Basically, I think there is a structural disadvantage for the left in American politics. We can occasionally get large majorities and make historic progressive change, but we can’t do it without incurring a massive backlash that quickly dissipates our majorities.
We just cannot compete in the media.
A side effect of this is that we have a permanent segment of the Democratic Party which is more concerned about keeping our majorities than it is in making progressive change. It’s a self-preservation kind of thing, and it has the advantage of attracting lots of corporate cash.
I don’t know how much we should hate this segment.
I think it’s short-sighted to have a complete indifference to maintaining our majorities. And that’s why I find myself equally disgusted by the DLC types and the holier-than-thou progressives. Neither of them places enough importance on something that is critically important. Power is almost useless if it doesn’t bring positive change. But it’s stupid to turn up your nose at positive change that is the best the system can produce at a given period of time.
What we need is a balance, but almost no one advocates for balance.
Balance of what? Because there can be no balance. The DLC/Third Way is the corporate attempt to destroy the Democratic Party from the inside out.
P.S. You have a spammer on the recent diaries.
I quote from Eisenhower’s Farewell Address:
That’s roughly the kind of balance I’m talking about. In the political field, it’s not all about election or all about policy, but a mixture of both. It’s a mix of what is necessary and what is desirable.
Politically it was no maybe
because
I think Obama was overconfident that the recovery had taken. He made the mistake of reaching too far too soon. The country was still preoccupied with their very real fears about the economy. It cost him a good bill on healthcare, Bank Reform and worst of all 2010 elections.
Obama’s political misstep was used against him by a ruthless corporate money machine albeit at the price of possibly unleashing domestic terrorists. A price the Republican party seems willing to pay although I believe many of the Boehner types are clueless because its so purely about the money and a lot of them are probably drunks like Boehner.
The blogosphere isn’t always perfect but it gets attention do not doubt that. I guarantee the powers that be monitor the pulse of the blogosphere always. What remains is Obama to regain his confidence. To be an aggressive politician again.
. . overconfident that the recovery had taken.
The administration needed to get healthcare costs under control to even have a “recovery” in the first place. It was the cornerstone of the economic package.
I have to disagree. The Recovery Act was helping but confidence was lost because the Republicans were scaring the hell out of everyone about healthcare. The oil spill was shaking confidence too. He should have waited. Obama will recover with the economy.
Excellent post. I still put more of the blame on the DLC/Blue Dog/Conservative Democrat types, who I feel did a lot to hold up and water down legislation. Did Blanche Lincoln help herself at all when she got in the way of Obama’s agenda? Is Lieberman really concerned about Democratic majorities? What about Stupak?
A big argument on the Left is that the Stimulus was way too small and a bigger one would have gotten us out of the economic mess the US is in. What if they had tried and managed to get all of the Democratic senators on board, hypothetically speaking. Say they had gone as bold as possible and the economy was thriving. Do you think our Democratic majorities would be dwindling as they now are? Wouldn’t it be much easier for Obama to make the case that his policies have benefitted the country? Perhaps it was never even possible to get 60 senators on board, but in what way are progressives as much to blame as Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman, Kent Conrad, Max Baucus and their Blue Dog brethren in the House, along with the entire Republican party?
Say they had gone as bold as possible and the economy was thriving…
Objection, your honor, assumes facts not in evidence.
The problem is the Senate. Period.
There are three factions in the Senate — Democrats who are Democrats, Democrats who are Republicans, and Republicans who are Republicans. And there’s a de-facto super-majority requirement for passage of any remotely controversial legislation.
Well, that’s what a hypothetical is, isn’t it?
Hypothetically I could get hit driving on the way home by a log truck, or Michael Schumacher in an F1 Mercedes.
Only one worries me.
Salunga, hypothetically speaking, if we had a something approaching a majority-rule Senate…the Dems would still have lost dozens of seats last November.
On the plus side, the stimulus would have been larger, the economy would be in (somewhat) better shape, we’d have a better health care law, as well as at least several important laws (possibly including cap-and-trade) passed by the House last session but not taken up by the Senate. We’d also have a bunch more federal judges and senior administration officials confirmed.
That still wouldn’t change the underlying fundamentals: high unemployment, a midterm election which favors the non-presidential party, and a smaller electorate (generally older and more conservative).
Democrats might have held the House and a couple more Senate seats—but we’d still be looking at a more right-wing Congress with pundits claiming that the election results were a “referendum” on Obama’s liberalism.
There’s another way to be critical than just focusing on lost seats. I’m less concerned with the loss of the House than the failure to address what I see are structural problems in American political life. Tacticaly, I think a lot of us are disappointed that Obama didn’t use an outside-in strategy on domestic policy and that he caved so readily on civil liberties questions. Obama’s administration made a judgment to work incrementally through the current political paradigm (particularly with respect to corporate America and the national security state) rather than to attack what I see are the root problems. Perhaps he was correct in those judgments – perhaps there is nothing that can be done to restrict corporate influence or protect civil liberties – perhaps what Obama achieved was simply the best we could get. But if that’s true we’re in even more trouble than I thought.
re: civil liberties are you talking about Guantanamo and about investigating Bushco and torture? if so, I’m not disappointed at all. imo Obama has a choice – focus on basic domestic programs that affect the lives of most citizens or go after specific Bushco abuses. And realistically would the person who gave the Tucson speech sacrifice the former for the latter? I don’t think so. imo most of the calls for that come out of a desire for payback, not a desire to put the country on an even keel. Yes, they should be addressed, but not at the expense of so many living so marginally with tenuous options for the future.
I don’t think so. imo most of the calls for that come out of a desire for payback, not a desire to put the country on an even keel. Yes, they should be addressed, but not at the expense of so many living so marginally with tenuous options for the future.
Except it goes to the same thing. The rule of law. Is there one set of laws for everyone, or do the laws only apply to the poor/middle class and non-connected?
you interpret the opposite of what I mean – do the benefits only go to the wealthy? or is usa going to provide affordable quality education, medical care, home ownership to the majority? while dems chase the chimera of revenge against bushco? (which is what I read a lot of so called progressives asking for). time will come for investigating all that, right now, the time and energy of Obama admin much better spent working towards quality of life for all citizens now. investigating the wrongs of bushco is very very important, but most ppl are suffering too much right now to push for that. Hence, imo, those who are pushing for it probably aren’t suffering the effects of erosion of middle class and working class benefits not to mention safety net for the poor.
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It’s difficult to make comparisons but the domestic political violence in the Unites States reminds me of sectarian political split in a nation similar to the times of the civil war in El Salvador. Democrat and Republican party membership goes far beyond political differences to be resolved by arguments, debates and finding common ground. The Tea Party movement created by a few has all the irks of a violent sect. If not by arguments, we’ll settle our difference by the gun. There have been few wise men who could make a difference in a nation in the past. Tempo of modern life doesn’t allow for contemplative thought or visionary choices that will make a difference for the next generation. We are robbing our children of American values and personal freedom. That’s why I find the statement of Sheriff Dupnik in Tucson Arizona timely and much needed. Too bad it falls on deaf ears.
A speech by New York mayor Bloomberg got the same fate. Hate destroys human kind and begins by oneself.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Welcome back to France, ca. 1789. 🙂
What do you mean?
The Tea Party movement, funded by Koch brothers and their ilk, is numerically small though noisy and well funded. The Obama programs to strengthen civil society should reduce their numbers and help dial down the rhetoric. Let’s hope events in Arizona continue to produce discussion in Arizona. Here in the NE (South West of Maine) the Tea Party is not an issue. Bloomberg’s speech was about the ex-Burlington Coat factory which to my knowledge remains a non-issue in the NY area. The major issue in this region is attacks on the middle class via undermining/ weakening public schools and unions and failure to rein in the banksters.
Bloomberg, his lofty rhetoric aside, is very much contributing to undermining the schools, weakening the unions and helping the banksters.
take a stand now, if it even matters anymore. Frankly, I’m closer to Karl Denninger at this point, because you and legions of others senselessly believe the economy will be okay. It won’t. “Bill Daley will get it done,” meaning “finish off the middle class.” That’s from Simon Johnson, and Barry Ritholtz agrees. I have always found them both relatively “tepid,” but there ya go. They finally got on my page. Whocoodanode?
Goddammit.
Fucking “pundits.”
Enjoy the wrong god-damned side of history, ’cause it’s gonna be a ripper.
jiminy effing christmas. “We need balance.”
That’s what you said.
And David Souter is a goat-fucking child molester. Balance that!
David Souter is retired.
not clear what you’re getting at here, what do you mean?
don’t understand, what do you mean?
Maybe I’m special, but I don’t fit your crude stereotype. I’m black and high-school educated but I’m not praising Obama down the aisles as the broad success that you and the parade of courtiers incessantly do. I also see his administration as riddled with corruption where you don’t see a “whiff” of it.
You built a rather stupid and short-sighted yet essentially intellectually self-serving (as you and Obama always are!) strawman: either we care about progress or we care about majorities. Really?! I never thought about majorities. I thought about The People and the “change” that was supposed to be ushered in. But I see no change. And the “health care reform” you keep trumpeting is not so much health care reform as health insurance reform. You know that and I know that. So why do you persist in propagandizing us when you know that there is a huge difference between healthcare and health insurance? You and I know the answer to that one, too. And you call the past two years “bold”? Seriously?! WTF! You know better. It was “bold,” not bold just as much as it was “change,” not change. It’s all marketing, style and branding, nothing more.
Anyway, I deeply resent how you keep going back to Obama’s “purity” rhetoric and looking down on me and those “highly educated white progressives” who saw a once-in-a-lifetime chance to truly change the system for the better squandered (yes, there’s that word again) on the altar of bipartisanship, corporatism and compromise. Then you use the media landscape as a cop-out to sellout-ism. Stay classy, Boo! We can debate hither and yon about what would have happened if Obama went truly bold, but that’s all academic rhetoric right now.
Anyone who doesn’t have his head deep up Obama’s ass would smell more than a whiff of corruption with him and his administration from a mile away.
any corruption specifics?
I have no specifics, of course, but I’m not stupid and I refuse to be a willfully blind lemming to the Democratic cause. Recently, a red flag went up when Obama went against his campaign “morals” and gave tax cuts to the wealthy (such as himself and his golf buddies) and then he had the nerve to look at me and call me “immoral.” And the revolving door continues between his administration and Wall Street.
no specifics, but what is the basis for your certainty of Obama’s corruption?
I don’t have health insurance. Soon I will be able to get subsidies that make it affordable for me. Then I will be able to afford treatment if I get sick. In other words, I will have access to health care that doesn’t bankrupt me. That’s health care reform. That’s providing health care to once of our forty-plus million uninsured Americans. I will not look down my nose at something that could very well save my life and/or my extended family’s life savings.
I don’t look down on that specifically. What I deride are the clever euphemisms and propaganda. Yes, your health insurance will become more affordable two years after Obama’s second presidential campaign is done.
you would do better to look down on it specifically. Because the president just won subsidies for probably twenty million people to go get insurance. And you call it insurance reform and act all unimpressed. It’s the single biggest progressive achievement of my lifetime. It’s a big effing deal. Have some perspective.
But Boo, that’s where my head explodes. I am merely unimpressed when I leave out the perspective. However, when perspective is added, I seethe with the heat of a thousand suns. And you know why.
Obama in all his vainglorious wisdom sabotaged his campaign rhetoric, again, on his true religion: the holy Democratic trinity of Bipartisanship, Corporatism and Compromise. The bill turned into a corporate insurance sweepstakes, feeding their bottom lines while they fed his warchest (he scratched theirs and they scratched his) at the expense of The People. Then when I realized what happened and that the entire charade was planned from Day 1 (with the exception of the teabagger/Death Panel shtick) and called them out on it, I was the one demonized as willing to “let the perfect be the enemy of the good.” I remember Obama’s backroom deal vividly. And that’s where I get the corruption charge. Corruption isn’t always illegal.
I’d rather stay without the perspective because mine is quite different from yours. I wish it wasn’t.
Thank you for answering my question directly.
If you were a real progressive you’d gladly die, or see them die, if that were the price of putting the insurance companies out of business altogether.
If the Democrats had passed economic stimulus adequate to have achieved status quo ante by election day 2010 and Holder had prosecuted a few banksters, Democrats could have passed single-payer and all other manner of socialist stuff and still held a majority in the House. Conversely, with the quarter-assed stimulus that was passed, Democrats could have done nothing further and still lost the House. We are lucky we didn’t lose the Senate in 2010. That will come in 2012.
That is what’s called in grammarworld a past unreal (or contrary to fact) condition, going back to Davis X Machina’s comment above. The classical greeks, those masters of rhetoric, put such conditions in the indicative because they were statements of fact, i.e. fact that they did not happen, nor did the consequences result. that is to say, the classical greeks didn’t allow even the glimmer of possibility that the subjunctive or optative would convey. we can learn something from them.
Well, I guess that all seems terribly learned. But the fact is that Booman’s original set of propositions included a fair amount of subjunctive stuff: “Maybe the administration should have left health care reform for another day and focused much more intensely on the housing and unemployment crises, ” with the implication that if Democrats had done so, they might not have lost as many seats. But they didn’t leave health care reform for another day, and they didn’t focus more intensely on housing and unemployment, etc. etc. So, in that spirit, I offered my own situation contrary to fact, which seems to have confused you a great deal.
So let me state it more indicatively: It is, it was, and it will be the economy, stupid.
not learned at all, just impatient with spending too much time on the hypotheticals when there’s work to be done, but I think Tarheeldem’s response is more constructive than mine. Booman’s list is a summary of positions concerning the previous two years as a starting point for his presentation of the two poles – focus on keeping majorities on one end and making progressive change on the other, and pondering potential tradeoff.
We’re deep into the optative when we start talking about a progressive Democratic Senate majority….
lol!
In this case, hindsight is not yet 20/20.
First, expectations were set too high by Obama’s victory. The assumption was that he had found a way to beat the Elephant’s Mighty Wurlitzer. Indeed the Village did not know what to make of him. What undercut Obama’s ability to get a strong message was Democratic disunity to the point of sabotage — Shuler and Ross are now the two Democrats that deserve a 2012 primary. Ben Nelson is still a problem. But the more serious problem is that Democrats do not have a unified view of the empirical evidence for policy. Lacking that, they cannot create a consistent message. The failure of some Democrats in Congress to understand basic facts about the country’s situation is disheartening. Some are so bipartisan that they are getting their “facts” from Republicans. There was no way that the President could be bolder in his stimulus package or health care reform or financial industry reform because of this disunity.
Second, Democrats in Congress are still compromised by their campaign donors in spite of receiving massive small donations in the 2008 cycle. There is not excuse for the blatant corruption represented by the likes of Mike Ross and Max Baucus when it came to the health care reform bill.
Third, in 2009 both the President and Congress made the John Kerry mistake; they took August off to go home. And Democrats in Congress got blindsided by the Tea Party protests at their Town Hall meetings and the “death panel” meme from Fox and Grassley. That showed an unconsciousness of what was going on in their districts. Was this the result of too many new district staff unused to providing campaign intelligence to the DC office? That is hard to believe, but the Democrats got caught flat-footed.
Fourth, the failure to keep Howard Dean at the DNC expanding the 50-state strategy of rebuilding state parties turned out to be a killer. In a number of states, parties that had recently made gains lost ground substantially. North Carolina has its first Republican-controlled legislature (both Houses) since Reconstruction. Koch Brother financed candidates took over the Wake County NC school board (with the organization of Americans for Prosperity’s Art Pope) and are reversing the most successful desegregation plan in the nation, are considering dropping regional accreditation so they can redefine their curriculum, and have hired an unqualified superintendent named Tata. Yes, it’s TTFN good education in Wake County. The wash of money into local races should have been anticipated and made an issue after Citizens United. Democrats again caught flat-footed.
Fifth, the decision of local candidates like Creigh Deeds and Blue Dog members of Congress to run away from the President allowed Republicans to paint his policies as more extreme than they really were. That cost us the governors race in Virginia and the lost of half of those Blue Dog seats in November. And the holier-than-thou progressives were arguing in mid-2009 that this Blue Dog messaging would be suicidal for them. Unfortunately, the ones who survived did not get the message; so look for their demise in 2012 if the current political climate holds.
Sixth, the bipartisan strategy of the President allowed the GOP time to regroup after the disastrous loss in 2008. Longer term, this might be helpful if it allows the GOP to once again recover the “loyal” in loyal opposition, but that has not happened yet. And the talkers are whipping the base to keep it from happening. That’s why the righty talkers could not straight-out condemn the violence in Tucson and why they acted like asses about the memorial service. Nothing, absolutely nothing, is beyond single-minded focus on a permanent conservative majority (whether the country wants it or not).
Finally, the failure of all Democrats in Congress — progressive to Blue Dog — to point out loudly and often the failure of Reaganomics and the Republican platform prevented movement in the electorate toward the President’s policies. So we are now trapped in continued Reaganomics, and it is failing on a primarily Democratic watch. Not a good prescription for electoral victories in Congress in 2012. Although we might take back the House.
What’s done is done. There were immense accomplishments that the public doesn’t know about, primarily because the corporate media and the Democrats in Congress haven’t told them. I still don’t get laying the problems at “holier-than-thou progressives”. Few progressives of any sort have any influence over what the public thinks about the President or their members of Congress — even in progressive districts. None that I can tell so far. If that were to change even somewhat, you might find a lessening of the “holier-than-thou” attitude. But you carefully must sort out Democratic progressives from those with other agendas. And some progressives are so into creating a quixotic third party movement that destruction of Democrats instead of success of progressive ideas has become their fixation. The personal conflicts among blog owners and political operatives often obscures the fact that progressive and Democrat are an intersection of interests not a union of interests. (Sometimes I’ve wondered if it would be possible to get those anti-Democratic progressives to start taking over the Republican party.)
There are policy dangers coming up that could destroy Democratic prospects for a long time if we don’t start being more active. On healthcare, the worst possible world is failure to repeal the individual mandate but the repeal of the patients bill of rights provisions. And that is where the industry will be driving Congress — forced purchase and no rights. If that occurs, it is likely that Obama would be weakened enough to be vulnerable. The same is true for financial industry reform. If Elizabeth Warren’s work is stopped in its tracks either through Fed bureaucratic tricks or through repeal of certain parts of the legislation, the public will be down on Democrats for colluding with the banks. If there is political jiu-jitsu going on in the appointment of Daley and the conversation with the US Chamber of Commerce, the flip has to come pretty soon to be effective politically. Public patience with runaway banks is running low. Playing the debt limit hostage-taking the way that Democrats usually do will likely result in sacrifice of Democratically supported programs with no corresponding deal from Republicans. This time, Democrats must show seriousness about the debt limit by holding Republican expenditures hostage.
It is time to gird up for the new battles and leave the old battles behind.
Majorities aren’t created in the absence of strong policy results. And corporate cash is as much a trap for the New Democrats as a quixotic third-party movement is for some “holier-than-thou” progressives. It condemns one to permanent powerlessness. (It has the unfortunate advantage of allowing professional Democrats to live an elite lifestyle and confirm the perceptions laid out by the media of Democrats as elitist.)
What about the Democrat in the WH? Why give him a pass? We have to add Obama into this equation because it’s the truth about why there has been no substantive change in this policy.
I thought that went without saying.
The problem is, without Congressional Democrats backing up the President, he weakens himself by appearing unreasonably partisan (a charge that is so patently false it would be laughable except for the large number of independents who have fallen for the Village rhetoric).
Oh, I forgot to state that your comment is fantastic!
Thanks for the constructive analysis – very helpful for girding up for the battles ahead.
You argue: “There is a tendency to see a policy as sensible based on empirical evidence, and then to find some poll that shows that a policy is actually quite popular when viewed in a vacuum that doesn’t have to deal with the right-wing’s mighty media wurlitzer, or the challenges of campaign financing, or the divisions within the left-wing coalition.”
Which makes me wonder how we can start draining away some of the power that corporations have to keep that wurlitzer up and running. How do we take public media away from multinational corporate control? How do we protect net neutrality? How do we reverse rulings that give corporations the same status as citizens? How do we break through the corporate blockade against sensible tax policies? Where do we go to find people who are thinking about it in terms like these, rather than how many House and Senate seats we can acquire/keep? As long as we keep fighting about Dems/Pubs or right/left or caucasian/everyone else, we are not paying enough attention to the man behind the curtain.
These aren’t even yet idle thoughts, just idle questions.
What a great, great observation.
This is why I love coming to this blog.
One – as Churchill observed, the first duty of any politician is to get elected.
Two – Obama seems to have a good eye for what’s possible. I don’t see that he and the Dems in Congress could have gotten much more in the face of 40 disciplined gops in the Senate. Fewer Blue Dogs would help, but the situation was what it was.
Three – There was no politically realistic way Obama could have turned the economy around much faster. In a bad economy, the incumbent president’s party loses. End of story.