The president is currently more popular than he’s been since November 2009. I guess everyone will have an argument for why that is the case. The White House thinks it’s because they had a very successful lame-duck session and were able to get some bipartisan support for the first time of Obama’s presidency. Some people will point to the Dow Jones at nearly 12,000. Others might point to Obama’s wonderful speech at the memorial for the victims of the Tucson Massacre. Still others will point to recent hires at the White House that indicate a more business-friendly attitude…a “move to the center,” if you will. Another possibility is that voters are experiencing a bit of buyer’s remorse after seeing what assholes the new Republicans turned out to be.
You know what? I have no clue why Obama’s polls have suddenly soared. And no one else does, either. Maybe Nate Silver can figure it out. All I know is that our country is insane. As Bob Dylan said:
Ain’t no use jiving
Ain’t no use joking
Everything is broken.
That’s how I feel about our country. There is no relationship between the president’s performance and his poll numbers. None. I’m happy that his poll numbers are up, but you can’t point to anything real and say “this is the reason why his numbers are up.”
According to the tracking polls TPM posted, his approvals started going up in December.
This makes perfect sense to me since the election campaigning stopped in November, so people stopped getting inundated with political advertising in November and had enough time to let politics cool off an fall off the radar. So now they’re answering about whether they’re generally satisfied with their lot in life and their view of the next few months, rather than answering from a knee-jerk “OMG every ad on TV is telling me the world is falling apart and it’s the President/Democrats/whoever’s fault”.
The August-November time frame during an election year is aggravating for TV watchers and radio listeners. All the contextless ads that seem designed only to raise people’s blood pressure get to you after a while, even if you aren’t really watching them. I’d like to see someone do some statistical analysis on people’s political views during the August-November frame contrasted wtih August-November on off-election cycles. I’d bet the difference would be interesting.
I think you’re right. It’s as simple as the Koch Brothers stopped spending money on operations and advertising after the elections. Once we actually try to do anything important, those operations will ramp up again, the Tea Partiers will come out of hibernation, and our polls will sink again.
They’ve got us by the short and curlies.
Are we back to lies, damned lies, and statistics, again?
Did we ever get off that pattern?
It’s the “Whatever it is, I’m against it” syndrome, Booman.
Also the “Kick the bastards out!!!” thing.
The Ratpubs won in November so now they’re the bad guys.
Groucho knew, about 70 years ago.
Bet on it.
The only difference from times past?
The ubermedia have sped things up.
Bet on that as well.
Soon things will be moving so fast that people will want to kick the winners out before they even take office.
Saaaaaaay…!!!
Come to think of it, that ain’t such a bad idea.
Just sayin’…
AG
Well, it’s weird. What party picks up 63 seats when it’s leaders are less popular, its party is less popular, and it’s agenda is less popular than their opposition?
It seems natural that people would want to vote the Republicans out before they could even be seated under circumstances like this.
I have been saying this for a long while, Booman.
The whole system is fucked up, and the media are the worst part of it.
Forgetting about how the media consistently skew news in the interests of corporate entities, the Permagov etc…the necessity to “make news no matter what” in order to support the totally ridiculous number of TV channels is causing these logical anomalies of which you speak. Just as human beings simply cannot pass an accident without slowing down to gawp, it’s bad news that really sells. The 24/7 so-called news cycle spews out negative views on everything it can find regardless of whether those views are true or even well supported in a journalistic sense. It’s all about numbers, ratings, competition and profit. Nothing more, nothing less.
You ask:
I answer:
Ain’t about “agenda,”, Booman. Not so-called political agendas, anyway. It’s only about sales.
Profits.
Ratings.
It’s as real as a network “reality” show.
American Idol politics.
Sell the new, out with the previous new. Sell it not on talent or achievement but simply on its “newiness.”
Over and over and over again.
Another reason for:
I am not wrong here, Booman.
Just ahead of my time.
Bet on it.
AG
What do you call it when powerful business interests subsidize openly racist and nativist movements and allow them to come to power?
Boo:
You forget Henry Ford? We don’t know how many racists and xenophobes there are among CEO’s and the like, but my guess is that there is a fair number.
What di I call it?
Politics.
AG
.
Who Elected Ben Bernanke?
The reason why the Dow Jones points at nearly 12,000 and fixes corporations, financial institutions and leaves greed unchecked. Greed as the motor of capitalism and fueling the riches of the few. Republicans must be happy to have the Tea Party point the anger of the masses towards the party in power.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."that Obama will give an aggressively progressive SOTU speech and basically thumb his nose at the Republicans by calling for a new New Deal.
He should have done it two years ago but I’ll surely welcome it now.
I think Chris Matthews is smoking cocaine. But, I would welcome it, too.
Booman, I don’t think it’s that complicated:
Finally, let’s remember that Obama’s poll numbers haven’t moved much—in either direction—in the past year or so. The next time he’s hit with 2-3 weeks of bad lead stories, his numbers will go back down a few points.
What’s remarkable is how high his numbers have remained over the past 18 months despite the high unemployment rates. (No wonder nobody more prominent than Herman Cain has declared their candidacy for president in 2012.)
Actually, his approval is up 13% and disapproval down 11% from four months ago.
True, and it’s welcome news, and not insignificant. However, the recent change in Obama’s approve/disapprove numbers means that roughly one out of sixteen people polled flipped in the last four months. It’s also the case (I think) that that change is the largest change in Obama’s polling numbers in over a year.
Again, what’s most impressive to me about Obama’s polling numbers over the past two years is how much stronger they are than previous presidents in similar situations. It suggests that Obama has a fairly large and loyal base, which bodes well for his chances in 2012.
The country is insane, eh? Well I think that’s the clue, Boo. One thing Obama has going for him … an achievement, if you will, under the circumstances: HE’S NOT INSANE.
And here, as so often in the past, the Firesign Theatre proves prophetic. Their “Papoon for President” campaign dates back to 1972. His slogan: “He’s not insane!”
http://www.firesigntheatre.com/papoon/index.html
So, actually, the reason Obama is so popular is because MOST of the country … most, but by no means all, of course … is NOT insane. That’s all. And they like a president that’s not insane.
Have a ‘4’ for referencing Firesign Theatre.
It ain’t the Dow Jones – what average person follows that?
It’s not the new hires – what average person follows that news? Public could care less unless it was some celebrity or something.
I read his numbers were rising before the speech.
Could be the media stopped pissing on him in every breath and began marveling at what was happening in the lame duck session. That coverage made Obama look really good.
I think a lot of people follow the Dow Jones and check their net worth on a daily basis. What percentage of the voting public has a 401(k) or invests independently? It’s a significant percentage.
My 401(k) has nearly doubled since Obama became president. It’s hard not to notice something like that.
Sorry, not buying it. the average voter does not check their investments on a daily basis like that. Most people only pay attention at specific times of the year or if they may need the money or if they turn on the evening news and see that the markets are crashing.
Post-modernists say that no one knows anything for sure. Situation normal. They also say that narratives are important.
That said, my narrative for why Obama’s poll numbers have gone up is buyers remorse over the November election. Some people who didn’t before can now see the Congressional train wreck coming. And they can see clearly who’s engineering the train.
Let’s see if Obama can turn that around with his SOTU address. Because that’s the trap that the GOP has laid for him. The closer he gets to business, the more he looks like just any other politician — and we’re not talking with the independent lefties now but local people who don’t watch politics that much. The more he tries to rein in business’s excesses, the more attacks and less big campaign money he draws. His expectations about his ability to offset money power with the small donations from people power weigh very heavily on how he moves. Which is why the Republicans constructed this trap and why a politicized Supreme Court obliged.
But for now, I’m going with “buyer’s remorse”, and I’m unanimous in that.
I wonder if people are getting jaded to all the excitement mongering from the right wing. Can people be whipped up into a frenzy of fear forever? Or is it all a temporary thing?
It seems to me (if to no-one else, save perhaps Jonathan Cohn TNR) that it’s not Obama that’s changed but the media narrative. For how long has Obama talked about the deficit? For how long has he talked about investments in infrastructure, education and green energy and the need to compete with emerging economies? For my money, he’s been the most consistent President of my lifetime in terms of tone and policy.
What has changed is the media narrative that must, these days, resemble a cheesy film script. The sudden rise of the enigmatic star, the fall from grace and the rehabilitation culminating in happy families at the end of 2016. The narrative just wouldn’t be that interesting if it were just – Obama says the same thing as he said last year, or the year before that, or during the campaign. Obama, still cool and collected. Obama mark II, the same as Obama mark I but with a little more grey.
The media narrative in turn affects the fickle opinion of “independents” who only gauge the merit of politicians by what cable news has to say about them.
The Tucson speech wasn’t half bad, though.