Bob Cusack has seven reasons why the Republicans will have a hard time beating Obama in 2012. I think his explanations are generally accurate, but they’re a little bit shallow. Let’s take them in turn.
1. Incumbents are tough to beat. – He doesn’t explain why except to say that incumbents have “inherent advantages.” That’s true, but I’d like to know which of these advantages are important. Personally, I think incumbents’ most important advantages are that they get to set the agenda and that no one really questions their ability to do the job because it isn’t a hypothetical. You might think the president is doing a poor job, but only the worst presidents seem less qualified than their opponents.
2. Obama’s move to the center. – This one is complicated. Cusack acknowledges that moving to the center causes problems with the base. A base voter is more valuable than a swing voter because a base voter will work to persuade others to vote for you. You need to pick up more than one swing voter for every base voter you lose in order to make a gain by moving to the center. Moreover, moving to the center involves making compromises with the opposition which causes them to upset their base. I think the Republicans will experience schisms in their base as their leadership makes deals with the president. The president will probably benefit from this schism more than he will from any added attractiveness to swing voters. Ordinarily, the only things in the center are yellow lines and dead armadillos. It’s not an especially popular or inspiring place to be. But forcing the other side to make a deal? People like that a lot.
3. The economy is showing signs of life. – Yes, but it also showing an unrelenting period of high unemployment and a persistent illness in the housing sector. The real question is whether the economy will improve in time for it to sink in with the American people.
4. Presidential elections are usually more about personality than policies. – Why are the American people going to prefer Obama’s personality over his opponent? How does that break down regionally, and in the Electoral College?
5. Democrats still have fresh memories of Bush. – This is a variation of the theory that everything will turn out okay. The Bsse will come home once it sees the opposition. I’d like to think so, but I’ve seen no evidence of it in the blogosphere. It seems to me like the Base has forgotten that there is an opposition, or where the little power that they do have actually lies.
6. RNC debt. – It’s better to be flush with money, but the RNC will have no problem filling their coffers. They never do.
7.People like divided government. – I don’t think anybody likes divided government. People just hate Congress.
Here’s the important part. Try to picture any of the Republicans as president. You can’t do it, can you?
That’s why he is in good shape for reelection.
