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2008 – The Costs of Relying on Aging Dictators
(Middle-East Quarterly) – Almost as soon as it started, the democratization agenda that the Bush administration hoped would be the lodestar of its post 9-11 foreign policy has been all but shelved. The insurgency and sectarian bloodshed in Iraq, the regional threat posed by an expansionist Iran, and the Palestinian civil war have combined to help resurrect the U.S. embrace of regional stability as a foreign policy priority and have convinced President George W. Bush to reduce his emphasis on transformative diplomacy. Leaders such as Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Saudi King Abdullah bin Abd al-‘Aziz, whom many administration officials viewed as embarrassing allies during Bush’s first term, now enjoy a renaissance of U.S. support. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, for example, said little as Mubarak crushed liberal dissidents, and shortly before Bush met the Saudi king, he parried questions after a Saudi court sentenced a 19-year-old rape victim to 200 lashes and six months in jail.
But even as U.S. policy once again organizes around the idea that strongmen bring stability, Washington will soon face the downside of such a strategy: Aging rulers die; replacement leaders are frequently weak, and transitions can be volatile. Instability is a looming threat in four Western-allied dictatorships that many in Washington currently embrace as bulwarks of stability: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Oman.
The leaders of these countries have ruled for a combined total of ninety-nine years. Together, they have presided over significant transformations. But, in recent years, each has struggled to enact economic reforms to accommodate growing populations, to contain Islamism, and to encourage their respective societies to reconcile tradition with constructive political and economic pursuits. Amidst dangerous internal and external challenges, and in the absence of transparent mechanisms of succession that enjoy public approval, the inevitable moment of succession risks provoking crises that will challenge new leaders to the fullest.
>> Obama and Egypt transition scenarios
Egypt transition scenarios, as intelligence chief sworn in as VP
National Security Advisor Tom Donilon convened the inter-agency principals committee meeting on Egypt at 9:30 AM Saturday, White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said.
Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Amb. to Egypt Margaret Scobey participated in the two-hour meeting by video conference, while attending the meeting in person were White House chief of staff Bill Daley, CIA chief Leon Panetta, Deputy National Security Advisor Denis McDonough, Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Bill Burns, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy, the NSC’s Ben Rhodes, White House counterterrorism advisor John Brennan, U.S. Amb. to the UN Susan Rice, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, and Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Lael Brainard.
Obama will be briefed by his national security staff on further Egypt developments throughout the day, Vietor said.
Ambassador Burns is the author of Economic Aid and American Policy Toward Egypt, 1955-1981
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What we have witnessed:
The thugs on the streets creating havoc the first two days were hired by the repressive police force. The heavy casualties up to 300 kiilled were at the hands of the much hated police. That’s why they were removed and the miltary took over and immediately publicised they would not use force against unarmed civilians. The rampage of a few hours in the National Museum of Antiquities were thugs from Egyptian police. The protesters used a human chain around the Museum to keep the thugs out until the military took over security.
In today’s protest there was a greater presence of the Muslim Brotherhood including women. The protesters hate not only their old President Mubarak, but also the inner circle of his regime and the Jews (Israelis) and America. The effigy hanged in the streets of Cairo depicted Mubarak with a Zionist star on his tie.
The decade of Bush and the Neocons led nowhere on the path of democracy: not in Afghanistan, Iraq or neighboring states. Mubarak had warned Bush for taking the lid off Pandora’s box.The origin of Al Qaeda and Bin Laden was Yemen and the tribes of Saudi Arabia. The excuse was the Israeli occupation, this was only mentioned to aggravate the emotions of Arabs and Muslims throughout the world. The blow back has been an increase of right-wing rhetoric, xenophobia and political gain in elections throughout the Western world: the vast continent of Europe and the Antlantic alliance with the U.S.
The decade of Bush, Sharon, Neocons and Netanyahu wasted an opportunity for peace in the Middle-East. In a shameful manner the state of Israel and some Orthodox Jewish organizations exploited the holocaust for political and monetary gain. Today’s abusers of human rights and international justice are the settlers coming from all parts of the world. In addition Israel uses all means to silence opposition voices as the Soviets demonstrated under their dictatorship. Yes the military conflicts with Hezbollah and especially Hamas in Gaza was to silence the Palestinian people wanting to end the occupation and create an independent state of their own.
My nomination World Press Photo 2011 at the dawn of a new age of freedom for the Arab nations of North Africa and the Middle-East. Seeing those faces of children with expression of hope and a new future … may this come true with no more bloodshed.
If there would have been no 9/11, the crazies like Geert Wilders would not have had a chance in political life. The world is filled with right-wing extremist (and many others), however the events in Egypt gives one hope that change can indeed happen. Netanyahu, Likud and the Liebermans are feeling that comfortable losing an ally in Mubarak.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."