In less than an hour, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-AZ) will announce that he is not seeking reelection in 2012. We would have been term-limited out of his Whip position in 2013, so he would have had to either take a demotion or challenge Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) for the leadership role. While recent polling showed Kyl in solid shape for reelection, his seat was actually one of very few that the Democrats could conceivably pick up in the next cycle. According to my analysis, only Scott Brown (R-MA) is more vulnerable among Republicans who will be up for reelection.
The Democrats desperately need to pick up this seat if they want to retain their majority status in the Senate. Early speculation on potential Democratic candidates focuses on Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napalitano, “former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Jim Pederson; 2010 state attorney general nominee Felecia Rotellini,” and former state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Republicans mentioned include Reps. Trent Franks, Jeff Flake, and John Shadegg, and “former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth, former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods, former state Treasurer Dean Martin and Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu.”
On paper, Arizona should be a swing-state in 2012. Obama won in neighboring Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, and might have won Arizona if John McCain hadn’t been his opponent. Demographic trends are running in the Democrats’ direction, so with each successive presidential election, Arizona should become harder for the Republicans to hold. But, obviously, the right-wing in Arizona is uniquely pissed off and motivated, making it a hard place to compete. We have to find a way to get this done. We need this seat.
