Steve Benen thinks that there is a 70% likelihood that the government will shut down on March 4th because Congress will not be able to produce a continuing resolution. I’d place the odds at closer to 100%. After all, even in the extremely unlikely event that Congress does come together to pass something, the president will simply veto it. The only reason I hesitate to guarantee a shutdown is that Congress may decide to pass a very short-lived CR in order to buy some more time. Maybe they’ll fund the government for another 30-60 days. But there is no chance that the Democrats in the Senate or the president will sign-off on anything remotely resembling what the House Republicans are offering. And there is equally no chance that the House Republicans will come to their senses in the next two weeks, one of which will find them on vacation. If you depend on a Social Security check, you better tell your landlord the rent will be late, or start hectoring your relatives for a loan.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
My wife’s on disability. I’m already expecting that the SSDI check will never arrive next month. Fortunately, for now my income will get us by on the basics (rent, food, utilities). Those who do rely on Social Security or SSDI checks will be in a world of hurt, and it’s pretty clear that a large subset of our government simply doesn’t give a damn.
Can the Republicans configure this shutdown such that SS checks still get cut to minimize the blow back from all the Tea Party Seniors? Or is it an all or nothing proposition here? How exactly would that work?
No CR; No checks. Period.
I guess that means no checks for Congresscritters and their staffs too?
They’ll have to do without the pin money for a while. Their primary incomes will continue unabated.
The critters and staffers working for the Koch Brothers and other dirt-bag billionaires will still be receiving their regular pay ….
“what? you said you wanted the government out of your medicare and your social security, and now you got it! What are you crying about? Oh, you’re hungry? You’re sick? GET A JOB DEADBEAT.”
Hey Booman,
Sorry for being OT, but did you happen to read about this.
I don’t know about Rep Speier’s politics (blue dog/liberal/progressive), but this was pretty powerful.
The whole video should be seen.
OT, but this has to be read.
Democratic Congresswoman Jackie Speier Talks About Her Abortion (VIDEO)
the general trend I think for the first 2 years of Obama’s administration is that if something gets done, it was generally good policy, but horrible politics (think stimulus, stress tests, HCR). I think the new paradigm of divided government will yield bad policies, good politics (think lame duck tax cut deal). So that’s how I’m thinking this is going to all play out. Policies will be horrible and shortsighted, but Obama seems to be playing the political game much better than the GOP. Either way, hippies get punched in the process.
Of a government shutdown is what it takes to wake up Dems and American voters, so be it. The only thing our side should be thinking about now is how to make sure the onus for the consequences fall solidly on the GOP, where it belongs. Policy is dead for at least two years. Long live politics.
this can’t be a shock to anyone, can it?
Not to any one paying a little bit of attention.
If that’s where it’s going, so be it.
If it last long enough to cause Obama to cave, there will be a lot more foreclosures and rural poverty and starvation.
I’ll be OK as long as I have a tent a sleeping bag and a cardboard sign. Those will either be useful at a protest or standing on a traffic island with a tin cup.
By the way, if you are a Wisconsin voter, get yourself to Madison tomorrow. Folks there are going to need you when the Koch brothers’ goons arrive in town.
Same for folks in Ohio. Time for your trip to Columbus.
Check around. There might be folks organizing buses and carpools.
Does anyone expect the Administration or Senate Dems to hold a line in the sand during this face off? I guess, President has surrounded himself with so many Clinton hacks (what primary?) that they will be all about romanticizing the 90s public relations victory expecting it to happen it again.
That’s the question: WHO WINS THE PR WAR?
What happens in Madison, Columbus, and other places in the next two weeks affects how the PR war will play out. And most importantly an exposure of how money interests are playing FoxNews and how folks like Beck and Breitbart are staging phony events.
If you are in NYC, connect up with the folks demonstrating in solidarity outside FoxNews. A couple dozen people just doesn’t make waves. The theme, of course, is “Ich bin ein Cheesehead”.
Same for other rallies in solidarity around the country.
If we miss this opportunity to show people power, we will find 2012 all uphill. If we seize this opportunity, we might have the transformative moment that we sought in the Obama campaign. It is still true: You are the change you seek. It always was.
we’ve already started figuring out what kind of food package to give our elderly, very low-income neighbor.
I think it’s going to backfire, badly, on the republicans. They can’t touch Obama with this, because there’s nothing to send him. And the ads practically write themselves. they can’t even blame it on democratic stonewalling, since a number of key Republican senators say they won’t go along with LIHEAP and WIC cuts (brown and lugar).
The washington post says even air travel will be impacted: how’s that gonna work for businesses?
bring it. The GOP wants a shutdown, let ’em have it. People remember very quickly how much they like their soshulist benefits when they don’t get ’em anymore.
Hopefully, the Republicans will regret backing the Dems into a corner. Dems can’t finesse this one, so they have no choice except duking it out. Here’s hoping they’re up to the fight.
And when I hear the word “bipartisanshit” I will know that we are going to lose.
but it will need to be explained carefully. WE NEED TO PIN THE TAIL ON THE REPUKELISCUM. They will not say “Oh, it’s our fault.” They will blame Obama.
The PR campaign is the key. Is Obama ready to win it? Is he playing a partisan game which may mean we win, or will he be kissing Boehner’s butt?
Whether it backfires or not is unknown. But we must be ready to regain or seize the momentum once the outcome is known. The only question is whether the sleeping giant wakes up now with Madison and Columbus or whether it takes the draconian GOP budget to do it.
The shutdown date is March 4. Most SSA checks are sent on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd of the month.
There is no such thing as telling a landlord that the rent will be late. The landlord can begin the eviction process right away.
We are entering the initial phases of the rise of LIBERTARIANISM in America. The protests over union busting tactics in Wisconson and Ohio are at this moment escalating because of Libertarian governors elected in the 2010 election who are collaborating with their respective Republican majority legislatures to push through legislation designed to crush what remains of America’s middle class. The American people including Unions simply do not comprehend the level of fanaticism that is embedded in the Libertarian ideology.
To the current group of Libertarians holding public office on the Congressional level or on the State level there is NOTHING TO COMPROMISE. Why would such a person even entertain the idea of compromise (to keep the Federal Government open) when the desired goal of their most moist dreams is to completely ELIMINATE GOVERNMENT.
From my perspective, the current political events in America bring to mind the old Biblical quote from Hosea, “they who sow the wind shall reap the whirlwind”. The Republican Party, wealth corporate donors, and Freedom Works thought that they were “seizing on the moment”. With a black man in the White House, they sought to harness the burning hatefilled ire of white American racists to facilitate the election of a host of Libertarians to critical public office positions. I am certain that their original idea was to let these Libertarian fanatics do the dirty work for the Republican Party in respect to attacking American’s most sacred programs for the general public,i.e., Social Security, Medicare, food stamps etc. But once again they figured wrong. There is no controlling a dedicated purist Libertarians. To use a rather simple simile, if these Libertarian/Tea Partiers have their hands on the detonator then there will be no way to stop the upcoming deadly destructive blast.
The real tragedy in this sad post 2010 scenario is the amount of pain, suffering and death that lies ahead for the nation. The Libertarians in Congress are NOT CONCERNED with closing down the government until Obama caves in to someone elses’ demands. From their perspective it goes like this; “To hell with Obama! We intend to keep the government shut down until the government collapses and falls apart due to monetary starvation”. In other words “Starve the Beast to death”. You can’t engage a fanatic in any form of debate on a subject that he/she is a fanatic about. Argumentive “What if’s” and other conjectures do not matter to these people as they are totally uncaring about any other vision of the future except that which is firmly embedded within their own imagination.
Widespread rioting and blood in America’s streets are on the calendar unless the traditional Republicans, and the practical Libertarian Republicans, and the Democrats set aside political self interest and save the nation from an extensive period of bloody unrest.
State governments are already falling apart. The straw that breaks the Camel’s back would be a long drawnout shutdown of the Federal government. If this happens the country will be in full turmoil just in time for the 2012 elections.
Will the Democrats try to win the PR war? Will they be running ads about sick old people who will die without their checks? Because the Repukeliscum will be using their dominance on the airwaves to blame Obama and the Ds.
If the government shuts down, the PR war will determine who wins 2012. 2012 will be won or lost by May, 2011.
Forget worrying about what the Dems are doing. It is up to large numbers of people to win the PR war. The Dems should be scared of us, not the Tea Party crowd or the Koch brothers’ money machine. It’s time to make some noise.
Our personal networks can beat their airwaves if we use them.
Pinch yourself and wake up.
Your dreaming.
.
As an example:
If a couple of people with a videocam at one post office in each of those 3080 counties on government check day did interviews and just posted the best 3080 to YouTube, do you suppose that could have an impact?
Rep’s with any sense of history know the shutdown was a disaster last time and yet the newbies are quick to point out that this is a different time. Yeah right. This time we are engaged, still, in two wars and when the military wife with 4 kids shows up at the newshour to say she hasn’t gotten her husband’s military paycheck it will suck the wind right out of Paul’s pretend vote.