I’m nervous. but so far I am quite proud of how Barack Obama and Robert Gates have resisted calls to get our country overly involved in the situation in Libya. I fear reports of Gaddafi’s demise have been premature. But, probably a much more important consideration than Gaddafi’s fate is the general lack of knowledge about what might follow his regime. I am not concerned about radical Islamists taking over. I don’t think that is likely. I am concerned about no one taking over. I haven’t seen any compelling evidence that there are the makings of a functional government that can unite the country waiting in the wings.
For several decades we have dealt with Gaddafi and not seen it as in our national interests to do anything about kicking him out of power. I don’t see how anything has changed. I think Europe has compelling reasons to not want to see chaos in Libya that disrupts their oil supply and gives them an unwanted exodus of political refugees. But that’s basically their problem. They help us out from time to time, so I don’t necessarily object to lending them a hand when they need one, but that support should be at several removes from any direct intervention in Libya.
Secretary Gates has been at pains to say that anyone who puts American land forces in Africa or the Middle East should have their head examined. And he’s telling anyone who will listen that imposing a No-Fly Zone on Libya is a bad idea that we can’t afford and that it will force us to demolish Libya’s air defenses which would kill a lot of people and make it look like we’re going to steal Libya’s oil.
Obama’s been working behind the scenes, but he understands what’s at stake:
“There’s a great temptation to stand up and say, ‘We’ll help you rid the country of a dictator,’ ” one senior administration official said, insisting on anonymity because of the delicacy of the discussions. “But the president has been clear that what’s sweeping across the Middle East is organic to the region, and as soon as we become a military player, we’re at risk of falling into the old trap that Americans are stage-managing events for their own benefit.”
The truth is that Libya really isn’t our problem or our responsibility. It’s all fine for our government to call for Gaddafi to step down. But we should not interject ourselves in what is likely to be a civil war to see who can control Libya’s vast oil reserves.
I’ll keep saying it because it needs to be said. It would be easy for Obama to really screw up his presidency by getting Libya wrong. So far, he’s right on the money.
