Dan Balz of the Washington Post takes a look at the Obama administration’s gearing up for its reelection campaign. One thing that Balz notes is that the administration still maintains its belief in the power of people-powered politics.
Few campaigns have ever been as devoted to grass-roots organization as Obama’s. Perhaps inspired by the president’s roots as a community organizer, his political operation is infused with almost missionary zeal about the power of people coming together – aided by new technology and social-networking resources.
I have no doubt that the Obama-Biden 2012 campaign will be masters at the technological side of the battle because the most talented people in that field are going to line-up as a bloc against whatever travesty of a candidate the Republicans produce. I am not so certain that they can replicate the same hope-based missionary zeal. I don’t like fear-based politics, but we really have to make the opposition a completely unacceptable alternative. If we fail to do that, the election will again line up largely along red/blue lines, and, if that happens, not only is there a small risk of losing the election, but the Senate will almost certainly be lost. To avoid losing the Senate we must recruit very well, be extremely aggressive, and, most importantly, we must help Obama win a crushing victory that vastly expands the map. Fortunately, campaign manager Jim Messina is thinking along the same lines.
Strategically, Obama’s team is thinking aggressively. Messina said it is too early to talk seriously about the general election map and targeted states, but at a time when some analysts on the other side suggest that Obama’s options will be more limited in 2012 than in 2008, Messina believes just the opposite.
“I understand the challenges of any reelection campaign,” he said, “but we’re going to go into this with an expanded map and a bigger map in the beginning than in ’08.”
I think that’s the correct mindset. We’ve been trapped in a red/blue paradigm for so long that its easy to accept it as the basic political battlefield. But do not forget that when Richard Nixon won reelection in 1972, he carried New York, California, and the entire Upper Midwest. Ronald Reagan carried Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey in 1984. Some elections aren’t about red vs. blue, but about acceptable vs. unacceptable. Sometimes the choice becomes obvious to the American people after one side simply wins the argument. That has to the goal for Democrats and for the entire left in this upcoming election. And you can’t make that case solely on hope. You have to tap into the anxieties of the people, too. I don’t mean in any kind of cynical way. The Republicans are radical enough that we don’t need to exaggerate the threat they pose to choice, to the economy, to the environment, to science and education, to world peace, to religious and ethnic minorities, to women in general, or to the gay community. Civil liberties are bad enough under Obama, but the case has to be made that they would be much worse under Republican leadership.
To win really big, we’re going to have to point out that the other side is very dangerous, and that’s not a hopeful message. If the president won’t make that case forcefully (and he probably won’t), it is going to be up to the rest of us to spread that message to everyone we know. The goal has to be a landslide. A narrow reelection will leave us paralyzed for another four years.
I feel you, BooMan. I definitely understand your viewpoint, and ICAM.
This makes our job harder:
I think it would help if dems and obama talked about 1% vs. the rest of us. Corporate media will get the vapors about “class warfare” but this is the singular fact of our country right now. And 60-75% of the electorate knows it.
The map has 50 states and 435 Congressional districts, and some loser Democrats among the incumbents.
The strategy has to be to use backlash against the Republican bait-and-switch job of 2010 to propel a reverse-coattails landslide. In which a new Democratic Congress turns out to be more progressive than the President. This more than 2012 is where the Obama team either goes big or winds up with Carter and Clinton.
Having fresh faces everywhere would not hurt Democrats at all. Especially fresh faces drawn from newly motivated progressive Democrats frustrated with the gap between the public and Congress and willing to take down K Street.
It amazes me that twice, in 2004 and 2010, Republicans had a good round and then they start openly talking about gutting Social Security. They really do seem to be in a bubble of their own, and it’s astonishing from a political perspective. Maybe since this is in fact a real goal they think they have something to gain by being so open about it, to normalize it in discourse. That said, there’s no precedent for it working in even the short-term, politically.
I don’t think anyone with any sense thinks that there was any intent to strategically lose the House, but there is a principle that the best thing you can do to your opponent is give her or him a public forum from which to spout idiocy. Just make sure there’s no actual power attached to it. Granted that there are things the GOP House leadership can do so screw things up, they can’t pass legislation without it going through the Senate and White House. Instead, they’re going for grandstanding for the far right.
I’m not so sure I buy that. First, the GOP has been spouting idiocy for quite a while, and certainly non-stop for the last 2 years. I don’t think their landslide win in 2010 is due to the idiocy, but it shows that spouting idiocy doesn’t necessarily hurt.
Second, consider the position the Democrats are in right now. We all know that the #1 determiner in any election is the economy. If the economy picks up by 2012 who gets the credit? If the economy tanks who gets the blame?
I submit that the if the economy picks up the electorate will do their usual good economy/pro-incumbent thing in 2010 and vote in Obama and the GOP House and, due to the open seat logistics, tilt the senate to the GOP, too. In other words, give both the credit.
OTOH, if the economy tanks the GOP will blame Obama for blocking their programs. The electorate will do their usual bad economy/anti-incumbent thing and kick out Obama and the Dem Senate.
Obama might save his own ass, but his party is toast. And no amount of GOTV and “Be scared of the Republicans” messaging is going to change that.
Doubt that? Remember that the Dems had both houses starting in 2007 and the anti-incumbent sentiment in 2008 gave them even bigger majorities and the Presidency. That’s because the electorate blamed the GOP for the bad times, because the GOP had the presidency. OTOH, although Clinton was riding a great wave of incumbent popularity in 1996, and was still personally popular in 1998 and 2000, at no point were the Dems ever able to overcome the GOP’s slim Congressional leads in any of those elections. That’s because the electorate was pro-incumbent in the good times.
I honestly don’t know what to root for in 2012. Behind door #1 we have inevitable, horrible calamity — environment, war, economic devastation of the middle class. Behind door #2 we have inevitable, slightly less bad calamity on all three of those issues. I’ll vote for the slightly less bad side (Obama et al), but what’s the point?
It amazes me that twice, in 2004 and 2010, Republicans had a good round and then they start openly talking about gutting Social Security. They really do seem to be in a bubble of their own, and it’s astonishing from a political perspective. Maybe since this is in fact a real goal they think they have something to gain by being so open about it, to normalize it in discourse. That said, there’s no precedent for it working in even the short-term, politically.
I don’t think anyone with any sense thinks that there was any intent to strategically lose the House, but there is a principle that the best thing you can do to your opponent is give her or him a public forum from which to spout idiocy. Just make sure there’s no actual power attached to it. Granted that there are things the GOP House leadership can do so screw things up, they can’t pass legislation without it going through the Senate and White House. Instead, they’re going for grandstanding for the far right.
Tweeted
The problem is, in West Wing parlance, give me the next ten words. Give me names.
Which states that were lost in 2008 are now gettable in 2012? Arizona, Montana, Georgia maybe? Kentucky?
The electoral college is no friend to the black man.
I think we could see a completely nutty election result where Obama gets 55% of the national vote, the Dems retake the House, and the Republicans still flip the Senate. Because the Senate is all the GOP has going for it with that godawful slate of candidates they have lined up, that’s probably where the private money will target.
To win really big, we’re going to have to point out that the other side is very dangerous, and that’s not a hopeful message. If the president won’t make that case forcefully (and he probably won’t), it is going to be up to the rest of us to spread that message to everyone we know.
So we’re going to tell the electorate that: if you vote in the GOP they’ll do horrible things to your health care system, cut your government benefits, start unnecessary wars, let the polluters run wild, and probably take several legal steps towards fundamentalist Christian theocracy.
And the GOP is going to tell the electorate that: if you re-elect the Dems they’ll do horrible things to your health care system, cut your medicare and social security, let in illegal aliens and terrorist leading to unnecessary wars, let the treehuggers run wild killing your jobs, and probably take several legal steps towards fundamentalist Islamic theocracy (i.e. Sharia Law).
Two negative messages, both equally dire. And the GOP will have the Citizens United megaphone while the Dems will, by comparison, be speaking with laryngitis.
Sorry, you can’t win a negative campaign against the professional negative campaigners. The fact that the stuff you are saying is true and their assertions are lies is meaningless — remember 3/4th of the population thought Obama raised taxes. Facts don’t matter.
No, if you are going to win you have to actually make people’s lives better. You know, real health care reform. Real mortgage reform. Real economic reform. And mostly, real jobs.
But I guess it’s too late for that now.
Sorry to be so pessimistic but in 2008 I poll watched in the poorest neighborhood in my state. The lines to vote winded for 500 yards through the church parking lot to the street. Nearly 2,500 voted. A Democrat won the House seat by 4%, and Obama swept the district.
In 2010, I watched the same voting site and only 700 people voted. A Republican recaptured the House seat by 6%, and the local government went totally Republican.
No matter what happens in 2012, in 2014 any advantage gained by the Democrats running an incumbent president two years earlier will be wiped out. Count on that like the Sun rising in the East.
All Democratic national political strategy ought to be based upon that reality.
I find this yakking about targeted states and the electoral map discouraging. Here we go again with the techno-manipulators saving the day instead of thinking about what we’re going to say in those states. It doesn’t matter what the map is unless you have something that gets people in those states and districts to vote for you. So far the Dems are failing miserably by that standard.
Obama and the loudest Dem mouths in the Senate kneecap us regularly by compromising with the enemy. Standing up for “negotiation” and “bipartisanship” is standing up for zero. Americans are looking for real answers, real vision. Pretty much all we’ve gotten from Dems so far is timid tweaks, abject consorting with the bad guys, and failure to communicate. My hope is that even the deaf, dumb, and blind beltway babies get what’s going on in Wisconsin and go forth and do likewise. I wish we could send the WI 14 to 14 states to run for the Senate. Maybe except for one who runs for president. We lost last year because our natural constituency didn’t see anything worth coming out to vote for. If “expanded maps” is where our priorities lie this time, we’re looking at a sad, sad, rerun.
On, Wisconsin.
Would a 2012 Obama landslide bring in a Democratic House? Say it could be so, BooMan!