Former senator from New Hampshire Judd Gregg points out something that was confirmed by Gallup last week. The Republicans have no frontrunner for their presidential nomination and this is completely atypical in the post-war era.
I have participated in presidential primaries in New Hampshire since 1976. It is part of the fun of being from that state. There has always been a presumptive favorite or two. Not this year. The field is wide open, the names numerous with more to come, one expects, but it is difficult to see clearly who might be the nominee.
In the past, there would be an heir apparent or maybe two. It would be between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan or Reagan and George Bush or Bush and Bob Dole or Bush and John McCain, but not this year. There does not seem to be an envelope floating around with a winner in it. This raises the issue of how the process will evolve.
The frontrunner has not always gone on to win the nomination. Nelson Rockefeller lost to Barry Goldwater and Rudy Guiliani lost to John McCain. But the Republicans have always had someone by this point who was polling over thirty percent. As Gallup explains, there is no modern precedent for this:
History thus provides no guidelines for how today’s highly fragmented Republican race might play out, or for when a strong front-runner is likely to emerge, or who it will be. If the race remains close throughout 2011, it may also create unfamiliar political and fundraising dynamics for the national party. As of today, Huckabee is supported by 18% of Republicans and Republican leaners, while Palin and Romney are each favored by 16%. However, it is quite possible one of the three, or perhaps a different candidate, will break out from the pack before too long, particularly given that some of these candidates may decide not to run. And as the field is clarified, certain candidates may benefit more than others.
Because we’ve never seen a nominating race begin this way, it’s not only hard to predict how it will shake out, it’s hard to know if any of the things we’ve come to expect will occur. Fmr. Sen. Gregg wonders if New Hampshire will have its normal influence.
The winnowing of the field, which has been the role of New Hampshire, might not occur if there are no presumptive front-runners. In fact, the situation might simply become more muddled, as New Hampshire does not seem like fertile ground for the likes of former Govs. Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee or even Newt Gingrich. And yet, these candidates, if they run, might all still be very viable post-New Hampshire because of their name recognition if there is no heir apparent.
The assumption here is that Iowa Republicans are so socially conservative and the caucus system is sufficiently closed that whomever wins the state will be far too right for the voters of New Hampshire. Meanwhile, New Hampshire’s Republicans are more socially tolerant and their primary system is sufficiently open that the state will probably nominate someone different than Iowa. But, the winners of those two races may not wind up in two-person race. They may not even last long past those contests.
It’s possible that Mike Huckabee could win Iowa, Mitt Romney could win New Hampshire, and yet, Palin, Newt, and others could solider on. It could unfold in a way that no single candidate has the votes to secure the nomination when things open at the Republican National Convention. Gregg’s nightmare is that Palin will benefit.
Because the nominating process has become so dominated by primary elections, with the vast majority of the delegates chosen by direct vote, it is entirely possible that with no presumptive winner or even favorites, a candidate who runs second or third in a great many primaries could go into the convention with a sizable block of delegates.
Who would this favor? Does Sarah Palin come to mind? Although she is not viewed by most as strong enough to win, she is viewed by many as a person worth voting for to make a statement. And primaries tend to be populated by people who go to the polls with the purpose of making a statement.
Finishing second and third isn’t really a big deal — until you get enough delegates to be the nominee. And picking a nominee who it seems would be easily defeated by President Obama might not be the best statement.
Can you imagine a modern-day brokered convention with Sarah Palin in the driver’s seat?
I’d buy that for a dollar.
