Things are slowly coming together in terms of figuring out some kind of command and control system for the fighting in Libya, but it’s an eclectic and unmanageable mess at the moment. NATO is supposed to take over now that Turkey has won concessions that it will restrict itself to enforcing the no-fly zone. But that doesn’t mean that France, Britain, and the United States won’t be imposing a no-drive zone that will be coordinated outside of NATO. The African Union is sponsoring talks tomorrow between loyalists and rebels in Ethiopia. So far, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey are all making positive contributions.
The way I see this is that no one wants to man-up and admit that they want Gaddafi gone or invest what it would take to make that happen. So, I see this thing dragging on and devolving into a civil war that embarrasses everyone. On the other hand, Juan Cole says I’m impatient and unappreciative of what’s already been accomplished. I hear what’s he’s saying, but that doesn’t mean I am wrong to be concerned about where this is going.
How are you feeling about it? Optimistic, pessimistic, something in between?
The way I see this is that no one wants to man-up and admit that they want Gaddafi gone or invest what it would take to make that happen.
Sorry, must have gotten here by mistake. I thought this was a progressive blog.
Oops. Please delete that comment. I misread your post, commented, then re-read. Now I have the full context and agree with you.
Meh. It doesn’t need to be deleted. It reflects the ambivalence most of us feel about what is going on.
A dumb-ass idea all the way down the line.
What about Syria?:
When does Obama start firing cruise missiles there?
Or is he busy finding more domestic spending cuts to mollify the Republicans?
I still think Cole and Nick Kristof are both wrong. Cole is also being VERY, how shall I say, simplistic in his analysis. He even said there’s no real tribalism to worry about like there was with Iraq. Uh, really?
And I disagree with an endgame of regime change with no one wanting to take the responsibility. The best outcome is a nominal 2 state solution (sort of like Kosovo). I think that’s what they’re hoping for.
But who gets the oil? And who is leading the rebellion?
Cole does know what he’s talking about. Maybe there is no real tribalism to worry about in Libya? Iraq was artificially created, Sunni controlled with most of the oil in Shia and Kurd dominant regions. Libya is completely different.
Gertrude Bell.
I’d say give it a week or so before worrying. The rebels have had only a few days without worry about being massacred, even worse, coming close to being massacred. Takes some time to coordinate among themselves an agenda for longer term.
I’m getting more worried about Syria. With each day that the uprisings occur and the people of each country are brutally smashed, that we get insights into the generations of people who have been oppressed and it’s becoming obvious that they first and foremost just want to see a little daylight.
While we rub our collective hands in worry over where this road will take us, the people there are just trying to survive the uprising and thinking of the formalities of a new govt is just not on the day’s radar.
Whether or not they will become easy pickins for carpetbagger leaders will be the open question of our time.
To be blunt, you and Cole have been focusing nearly exclusively on the UN related activity. And sure, we all know the no-fly zone and potential no-drive zones help the rebels in varying degrees.
However whether or not this drags on into a 10 year civil war or comes to a conclusion this year is dependent on developments that aren’t getting published much. It is dependent on how well or poorly rebel fighters are getting organized, led and supplied.
The intoxicating speed with which rebel fighters took a number of cities early in the fighting is not necessarily going to repeat itself. “Past performance is not a guarantee of future success.” In other words, no one really knows until a bigger picture comes together on the story of rebel military actions such as this somewhat disappointing news from the BBC:
Moreover, Libyan army units that had turned their back on the Gaddafi regime in the early days of the rebellion, notably the Sa’iqa special forces brigade based in Benghazi, appear to have shed their uniforms and vanished instead of joining the rebel armed forces.
The special forces’ long-serving erstwhile commander, General Abd-al-Fattah Yunis, who in February defected from the regime where he was interior minister and is now “chief of the General Staff of the Army of Free Libya”, appears not to have used his influence or contacts in the force to mobilise it to the rebel cause.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12842303
I’m very angry about what we’re doing in Libya, but not out of humanitarian concerns or even my well-known hatred of wars.
No, I am angry for the reasons I quote on my own site.
We can’t afford to fix our infrastructure. We can’t afford real universal health care. Good schools and well paid teachers? Can’t afford ’em, just like we can’t afford a renewable energy policy. We certainly can’t afford to regulate Wall Street, and in a few weeks we’re going to hear about how we can’t afford social security either.
But a military intervention in Libya? Not only can we afford that, we didn’t even have a fucking debate. I didn’t even get the courtesy reach-around while someone whispered sweet nothings like “He’s got WMD that can kill us all an then he’ll establish a caliphate”
ot BooMan,
you’re not going to post on the INDIANA dude who sent the email to Walker telling him to get someone to injure him and frame the unions for it?
Uprisings in Syria and Bahrain are as important as what’s going on in Libya. Eventually the House of Saud has a real problem on it’s hands, and you know we’d go in there to protect the oil. How long til we’re trying to hold down the whole shebang?
And for that matter, you watch, Iran is trying to goad Israel into a potentially explosive military action, which could kick off the third intifada.
In short, it’s a giant mess that gets harder to manage and more impossible to extract ourselves from every day. There needs to be an accomplishment of stability somewhere, and hopefully soon. This is exactly the kind of situation my sig line is referring to, and I think so far the Obama team has done a great job. BUT it’s a psychotically perilious path. Thank god the Republicans don’t have any serious candidates this time around.
Finally! Our troops are greeted with flowers and sweets. It’s such a great TV story in the midst of all this despair over nukes. My heart soars.
I feel optimism succumbing to cynicism, or was that just yesterday.
thanks for interesting history)