Other than Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, it doesn’t really look like anyone is serious about winning the Republican nomination. Oh, sure, everyone from Rick Santorum to Donald Trump is talking about running, or, in Newt Gingrich’s case, thinking about thinking about forming an exploratory committee. It takes money and organization to run for and win a major-party nomination, though, and it gets late early. Maybe we should do this like the NCAA basketball tournament. First we have to seed the teams.
First Seeds
Mitt Romney- he ran a strong second last time around and he has the most money and the most Establishment support.
Tim Pawlenty- Has executive experience, some Establishment support, a moderate record that he’s running away from, and the fewest black marks on his record. He also appears serious about running.
Sarah Palin- She’s a wildcard because she is simultaneously the heir apparent (usually decisive in a GOP nomination contest) and a fringe candidate. She’s have little problem generating publicity and a lot of money, although perhaps not enough money to compete with Romney.
Haley Barbour- He’s a southern governor in a southern party. And he has more fundraising chops than anyone in the race. He’s a number one seed for financial reasons alone.
Second Seeds
Mitch Daniels- He has executive experience and a fairly moderate (by modern standards) record. He hasn’t decided whether or not to run, though, and time is running out to lock down Establishment support. If he gets in soon, he could have a real shot at competing in the money game.
Newt Gingrich- Newt has already raised a ton of money and he has a lot of connections. He’s a second seed for this reason and this reason alone.
Jon Huntsman- Huntsman served as Obama’s ambassador to China. The Establishment would love him, but he isn’t even the most popular Mormon Republican candidate in his home state of Utah. His best argument is that he could actually win in the general.
Mike Huckabee- I see no indications that Huckabee is willing to give up his gig at Fox News to run for president. But he won Iowa last time around and has to be considered in the top tier.
Third Seeds
Ron Paul- Paul also hasn’t said whether he is running or not, but he can always rely on his army of supporters to help fund and staff a national campaign.
Donald Trump- He has the money to get attention.
Michele Bachmann- She’s a Tea Partying renegade who knows how to get headlines.
Rick Santorum- He used to be the number three man in the U.S. Senate. He could become the statement choice of social conservatives.
Fourth Seeds
Mike Pence- Pence will compete with Santorum for the attention of social conservatives but he’ll just be wasting everyone’s time and squandering his career.
Buddy Roemer- A former Louisiana governor who says he’s running.
Herman Cain- The former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza.
John Bolton- Because every nominating contest needs a human-walrus.
Now, I don’t know how you get all these candidates on the same stage to have a debate. But we can bracket them up and see what happens.
East
1. Mitt Romney
4. John Bolton
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Donald Trump
Southeast
1. Haley Barbour
4. Buddy Roemer
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Rick Santorum
Midwest
1. Tim Pawlenty
4. Mike Pence
2. Mitch Daniels
3. Michele Bachmann
Southwest
1. Sarah Palin
4. Herman Cain
2. Jon Huntsman
3. Ron Paul
Anyone want to get an office pool going?
