I understand why Egyptians want to put Mubarak on trial for murder, but it’s not helping matters in other Arab countries. Presently, people are trying to get the president of Yemen to leave office voluntarily. The same thing is happening in Libya. Increasingly, the same thing is happening in Syria. But those leaders are looking at Mubarak’s situation and it isn’t providing them with any incentive to step down voluntarily. I know Egyptians care first and foremost about justice in their own country, but a little Arab solidarity might be called for here. Mubarak could have killed hundreds or thousands like Assad is intent on doing now, but he showed restraint and ultimately respected the wishes of the people. Maybe if he was given some mercy in reciprocation, it would help Libya, Syria, and Yemen transition to new governments without a lot of bloodshed. It’s just an idea. Small ‘D’ democrats ought to stick together. Plus, Mubarak’s an old man and in poor health.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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In fact, over 800 people were killed by security forces and goons under Mubarak’s command before he left power. Mubarak did not show restraint. So many people turned out visibly in Tahrir Square, in Alexandria, in other Egyptian cities that the military understood that they could not handle the situation. And the democracy movement played the military by talking about the people and the army are one. And it was true. So many people were involved in the military at one time or another that there would have been massive mutiny at orders to shoot peaceful protesters who very well might be soldiers friends and relatives. A revolution happens when a dictator gives an order and no one obeys. The military saw the handwriting on the wall and shoved Mubarak out. Now the military seeks to minimize the slow pace of reforms, especially the lifting of the emergency law, by offering the democracy movement a prosecution and trial of the Mubarak family.
The situations are different in Libya, Yemen, and Syria because the rulers there have taken different kinds of steps to ensure the loyalty of the military. In Egypt, Mubarak essentially cut the military out of power except for foreign wars and depended on the Interior Ministry security forces and the presidential guard. In Yemen, Saleh still has some units loyal to him (on what basis has not been reported). In Libya, Gaddafi depended on staffing elite units with members of his own tribe from Sirte and then on mercenaries who were essentially forced labor once they got trained. No doubt none of the mercenaries had passports from their home countries; the Gaddafi regime confiscated them. There have been reports from some of the battle lines that even with Gaddafi’s own tribe, the motivation for battle has been an officer with a pistol waiting behind the front. Bahrain’s security apparatus are foreign workers, lavishly accommodated in good times to the resentment of native Bahrainis and given almost absolute control. And Bahrain has the Gulf Cooperation Council troops backing them up.
Government transition to new governments without a lot of bloodshed when the opposition represents almost all of the people (minus the security apparatus) and there is a military force that can restrain the actions of the security forces to the point that a tipping point is reached. My guess is that US aid has been influential in restraining Saleh’s hand in Yemen–and Saudi concerns about Yemeni instability. A concern, by the way, shared by the Yemeni street, which has kept them in peaceful protest for three months.
Syria is a new situation. Until Friday, Bashir al Assad had a chance to be the champion of reforms. But now, regime change at some point is inevitable. You don’t kill mourners in funeral processions as a matter of policy and stay in power long.
The small “d” democrats in these movements are miniscule but through coalitions they have been successful in keeping protests peaceful when they can. Egypt and Yemen are striking in this respect. Millions of peaceful protesters on the streets for days and weeks and remaining peaceful in spite of attacks by security forces and goons. But in Egypt, there was the night that the security forces were defeated by being overwhelmed by violent protesters who turned over their personnel carriers and after allowing them to evacuate and disarming them set the vehicles on fire. And a two-day battle to protect Tahrir Square from Mubarak’s plainclothes goons.
The idea of putting a former dictator on trial seeks to build in the rule of law from the beginning in the new regime. Putting dictators on trial is mercy; otherwise mobs would lynch them. The promise of a trial has to be there to control the political movement. To have enough patience to win.
The revolution happens when the people finally control the instruments of state power: the military, the security forces, the information ministry, the foreign service. The revolution stays democratic when there is enough restraint in the control of these institutions that order is restored without punishing those who had been mere functionaries in the previous regime.
Events in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, or anywhere else will not be affected by how the new Egyptian regime treats Mubarak. Gaddafi, Saleh, Assad, the Khalifas are too focused on their own country and what happens there to pay attention; the institutions are different; the changes will be different. And experience shows that allowing dictators to retire to Jeddah does not take away the incentives for dictatorship nor does it restore the funds that these countries need for their development.
Yes, the Egyptians should absolutely worry about the movements in other countries as they try to build a democracy, rather than make decisions based on what increases their chances of success.
Absolutely there should be no trials or investigations. Why look back?
Yes, please, a little Arab solidarity would go a long way. That is because all Arabs are alike, and all their countries are run the same.
And the fact the Egyptians are not Arabs? Well, they are giving up the right to make decisions based on what is good for Egypt, why not give up their heritage too?
http://mathildasanthropologyblog.wordpress.com/2008/11/09/egyptians-are-not-arabs-they-are-egyptians
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But at least they all look alike.
This is the same kind of logic used for not prosecuting our own torturers or banksters.
Actuallly, if the Egyptians string Mubarak up, the other dictators will clamp down even harder, thus inflaming their citizens all the more and making it more likely that they, too, will be thrown out.
Given that it can be argued both ways, perhaps we leave it up to the Egyptians what they do with their old, sick, corrupt tyrant.
Let the truth be revealed. The punishment will come later.
Booman,
You’re making much the same case that Obama makes regarding the many abuses our national security personnel committed on detainees. Obama takes the position that it would be politically disruptive to prosecute the guilty, so let’s move on. Are you suggesting that laws be enforced only when it’s politically convenient? Mubarak and the bastards in his intelligence apparatus did horrible things that cannot be overlooked. When exactly do we take human rights seriously?
It’s unanimous. Holy shit are you in the wrong on this one, Booman.
Mubarak did not show restraint. He did not go peacefully. Don’t start myth building already. It’s been only two months.
Hundreds of Egyptians were killed in the revolution. The revolution was paid for in the blood of martyrs, as it were. And that’s definitely how they see it. Not to mention the fact that the Egypt was an oppressive, abusive, torture state under Mubarak all along. That matters.
Yeah, we shouldn’t prosecute deposed dictators. It just sets a bad precedent. Next we’ll have to prosecute our own ex-heads-of-state, and that would be terrible.
Crime is crime and justice is justice. There is no exception because a criminal ultimately steps down from a position of illegitimate power.
And actually I see it another way. If the current surviving dictators see that they must cut deals to maintain a fraction of their income and find a haven, this awakening may occur faster.
What I don’t see is a thoughtful analysis of how the Cairo speech tipped all of this. This groundswell is certainly, at least in part, Obama’s doing as he signalled that we would not defend the dictators.
Tell that to the families of the dead. Their cries for justice should not be ignored.