I don’t think it’s a great idea to put too much stock in any poll that has less than 500 respondents and a margin of error of +/- five percentage points. So, with that caveat, Deseret News reports that 59% Utah’s voters want someone other than Orrin Hatch to represent them in the U.S. Senate. Only 38% are inclined to vote him into another six-year term. In another sign of his weakness, he pulls the support of 47% in a hypothetical matchup against Democratic Congressman Jim Matheson (46%), who is at least considering a challenge. Lest you think this is all about disenchantment with Hatch, there are other numbers to consider.
Hatch actually has a small lead among GOP voters against his most likely in-party challenger, Congressman Jason Chaffetz (47%-44%). And Chaffetz also hold a one-point lead over Matheson (46%-45%). If you look closer, it’s clear that Matheson’s support is softer, with many more voters saying that they would probably vote for him than definitely vote for him when compared to his hypothetical Republican opponents.
Hatch, his staffers, and independent Republican analysts express confidence that Hatch’s numbers will improve and that Obama’s presence on the top of the ticket will doom any Democratic challenge. That may be the case, but something is definitely afoot when the GOP is polling so anemically in the Beehive State.
With so few opportunities for the Democrats to pick up Senate seats, and with so many seats to defend, the DSCC has to make a play for this seat. Holding the Senate will require a landslide win by Obama, and while winning Utah outright could be impossible against any conceivable opponent, don’t forget that Reagan won Massachusetts in 1984. Sometimes, a major party nominates someone who is unacceptable to the entire country, regardless of normal lean. The GOP looks vulnerable to just that possibility in this election cycle, and Democratic strategists must plan to take advantage.
If Jim Matheson were to win this seat, he would probably vote with the Republicans on every polarizing bill and most polarizing nominees. But he’d vote for a Democratic majority leader, and could keep all Senate committees in Democratic hands.
But, setting aside the particulars of Utah and this seat, these poll numbers are not good news for the Republicans. It’s a sign that they are alienating voters in a major way and setting themselves up for a bloodpath the November after next.
