We’re starting to see articles about the rivalry between Speaker John Boehner and his Number Two, Eric Cantor. I get that Majority Leader Cantor has aspirations to hold the Speaker’s gavel some day. But I think there is less here than meets the eye. I don’t think Cantor is really more conservative than Boehner. What he’s doing is pandering to the craziest elements of his party. Obviously, if he positions himself to the right of the Speaker, he’s going to be more popular in the caucus. On most issues, this Bad Cop/Good Cop routine can work quite well for the Republicans. But on the debt limit it has created a crisis. What Boehner needs is for Cantor to talk some sense to the Tea Partiers, but Cantor is doing the opposite. This leaves Boehner with few options. As Dana Milbank notes, the Speaker may need nearly 100 Democrats to vote to raise the debt limit in order for it to pass. How he is supposed to get them?
Boehner gave a weak smile as he approached the lectern for his hastily arranged news conference Wednesday afternoon. He did not dispute an estimate presented to him by Fox News’s Chad Pergram that 80 to 120 House Republicans — a third to half his caucus — would oppose an increase in the debt limit with or without a tax increase. And he declined a request to name a concession his own side could support.
“I agree with the president that we cannot allow our nation to default on our debt,” he said. “But to prevent a default, a bill must pass the Congress, and a bill that doesn’t meet these tests” — that is, a bill with a tax increase — “can’t pass the House of Representatives.”
Normally, a speaker would twist arms until he won support for the grand bargain he had negotiated. But in this House Republican caucus, leaders are followers.
Boehner can afford to lose 22 Republican votes. After that, he must pick up one Democrat for every additional GOP defection. If he loses 80 Republicans, he’ll need 58 Democrats, if he loses 120 Republicans, he’ll need 98 Democrats. Instead of preparing his caucus for reality, he’s letting Eric Cantor do all the talking in the negotiations with the White House.
So, I guess the only thing left to talk about is how we all get rich off everyone else’s misery. Where should we put our money?
