One of the simplest things to predict about the Republican nomination process was that Mitt Romney would eventually be faceplanted on his decision to create a health insurance mandate while he was the governor of Massachusetts. That process has begun now in earnest, with Michele Bachmann now outpacing him in national polls. More tellingly, Public Policy Polling finds that only 17% of Republican primary voters would be willing to vote for a candidate with Romney’s record on health care. No doubt, Romney still has some residual strengths, including name recognition, experience as a candidate, organization, money, and establishment support. His greatest strength is the weakness of his competitors. No one has emerged as an alternative for the Republican establishment, and Rick Perry will not fit that bill. This will allow Romney to make a compelling ‘electability’ argument, and, as things stand, he will probably remain a contender through at least the New Hampshire primary.
What goes unstated too often is that Romney is a pretty horrible retail politician. People focus on his legendary flip-flopping, and he really is the most egregious flip-flopper in recorded history. But he’s not good on the stump. He’s uninspiring. His grasp of the issues is overrated. He’s a good, but not great, debater. And he’s simply exudes elitism in a manner far in excess of John Kerry. He would not be a strong general election candidate, although he might not need to be if the economy sours over the next fifteen months.
Bachmann’s rise has been pretty meteoric, but her fall to earth will probably be meteoric as well. By any definition, she holds beliefs that most people think are insane. She has her own Jeremiah Wright problem, having just quit her church because it officially views the Pope as the antichrist. As recently as 2006, she predicted the imminent end of the world. She will not stand up to closer scrutiny. What this tells us is that the GOP has no clear path to settling on a nominee. The two at the top of the polls are pretty close to non-starters.
I really do think that a brokered convention is not out of the question. The party has been rent in two by the budget standoff, and we could see this manifest itself as the candidate who wins in Iowa is rejected in New Hampshire and the candidate who wins in New Hampshire is rejected in South Carolina, and so on, until it emerges that no one can win the majority of the delegates.
