One of the simplest things to predict about the Republican nomination process was that Mitt Romney would eventually be faceplanted on his decision to create a health insurance mandate while he was the governor of Massachusetts. That process has begun now in earnest, with Michele Bachmann now outpacing him in national polls. More tellingly, Public Policy Polling finds that only 17% of Republican primary voters would be willing to vote for a candidate with Romney’s record on health care. No doubt, Romney still has some residual strengths, including name recognition, experience as a candidate, organization, money, and establishment support. His greatest strength is the weakness of his competitors. No one has emerged as an alternative for the Republican establishment, and Rick Perry will not fit that bill. This will allow Romney to make a compelling ‘electability’ argument, and, as things stand, he will probably remain a contender through at least the New Hampshire primary.
What goes unstated too often is that Romney is a pretty horrible retail politician. People focus on his legendary flip-flopping, and he really is the most egregious flip-flopper in recorded history. But he’s not good on the stump. He’s uninspiring. His grasp of the issues is overrated. He’s a good, but not great, debater. And he’s simply exudes elitism in a manner far in excess of John Kerry. He would not be a strong general election candidate, although he might not need to be if the economy sours over the next fifteen months.
Bachmann’s rise has been pretty meteoric, but her fall to earth will probably be meteoric as well. By any definition, she holds beliefs that most people think are insane. She has her own Jeremiah Wright problem, having just quit her church because it officially views the Pope as the antichrist. As recently as 2006, she predicted the imminent end of the world. She will not stand up to closer scrutiny. What this tells us is that the GOP has no clear path to settling on a nominee. The two at the top of the polls are pretty close to non-starters.
I really do think that a brokered convention is not out of the question. The party has been rent in two by the budget standoff, and we could see this manifest itself as the candidate who wins in Iowa is rejected in New Hampshire and the candidate who wins in New Hampshire is rejected in South Carolina, and so on, until it emerges that no one can win the majority of the delegates.
What makes you say this?
And I need an answer that would not also have eliminated George W. Bush from being the candidate of choice for the Republican establishment.
It’s worse than simple flip-flopping – people know he’s lying when he talks. You can change your mind on issues and some people will respect that. Nobody can respect Romney because it’s so transparently obvious that he will say or do anything to get the Presidency.
I mean if you went out right now and told all the Republican candidates – “Repudiate everything you’ve ever stood for, guarantee that you’ll go for national health care, full employment legislation, and a whole host of other liberal agenda items and I can guarantee you that you will be the next President of the United States” there is only one of them that would agree to do that. Mitt Romney could just as easily be a liberal as a conservative if he felt it could get him into office. And worse for him, his entire persona projects that outward.
Yeah, why won’t Rick Perry fit the bill?
Booman, explain yourself!
… that no state is immune to the risk of electing a governor whom they’re later embarrassed about.
I take some small consolation from the fact that I was embarrassed right from the start, rather than later, when he started humiliating us in public.
I really do think that a brokered convention is not out of the question.
A brokered convention?!? That would require participants willing to negotiate and compromise. Are you watching a different Republican party than I am?
.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Thus demonstrating that Mitt Romney – Mitt Romney! – is the strongest general election candidate the Republicans have to throw up against Obama.
I still believe a brokered convention gives us a Wingnut nominee. The delegates are not Very Serious People like David Brooks. They are Tea Partiers themselves. In fact, delegates at conventions are normally more partisan than the electorate themselves. So delegates at a Democratic Convention would give way more sway to someone like Bernie Sanders over a DLC’er, even if the DLC’er was closer to winning and was more in-step with the party as a whole.
Partisan does not equal ideologically extreme.
Take a look at our side of the aisle – aren’t the most devoted partisans and the “Professional Left,” “Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party,” “Naderite” types always facing off?
No, one does not necessitate the other, but delegates are almost always the ideological ends of the party. It’s rare that they’re representing the party writ-large. They’re almost always more liberal (or in the Republicans’ case, more conservative) than their constituents.
I’ll buy all your Romneys at the market. He’s a white guy in a suit.
He’s really white. He’s so not Keynan. He’s not obviously from anywhere, really, certainly not the South, or a scary big city. He may be a Mormon, but at least he’s not a Muslim. And he’s definitely not a socialist. And to the naked eye he appears not to be barking mad.
America is the home of Olive Garden, and Chili’s, and Applebee’s. We don’t want food, so much as something that looks like what we think food should look like. And we don’t want politicians, so much as people who look like what we think politicians look like. [1]
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2012 GOP presidential candidate — A White Guy in a Suit/Something Else in a Suit, 2012!
[1] Sometimes we’ll go crazy and ethnic. Obama. P.F. Chang’s. But only sometimes…
One way or another since at least Eugene McCarthy’s a initial attempt and certainly since the the Dean “AAAAARGH” fiasco, both conventions have been brokered.
By whom? By the corporate-owned media. It takes down anyone who does not meet its one most important qualification.
End of story.
All they want to is have a win/win situation. No matter who is elected, they win.
Displeased by Howard Dean, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann or Jesus H. Christ in politician drag, the media take ’em down like a pack of wild dogs taking down a wildebeest.
A first bite here, another bite there. Here a bite, there a bite, everywhere a bite bite until the candidate bleeds out and retires from the killing field.
Then in the election they do the same thing to the designated loser. Whichever candidate runs the weakest…that’s the one they take down. Had Obama chosen a weak VP, had he mismanaged his campaign, they would have painted him as an amateur and McCain as the real deal.
Instead it went the other way.
And Obama has kept his promises to them, too. Maybe not well enough to get re-elected, but then again maybe he has succeeded in sufficiently protecting them through some rough times and gained another 4 years.
“The people?”
Don’t make me laugh. “The people” will follow the hypnomedia’s subliminal orders at least well enough to assure a win for corporate America’s eventual choice.
Bet on it.
Right now?
The PermaGov is still behind Obama.
He is being progressively more and more touted as the hero of this little debt/so-called government closing brouhaha.
Watch.
Conventions?
Just a show.
The real work is done in the newspapers, magazines and TV news programs.
Watch.
But…don’t believe.
Please.
Later…
AG
It seems to me that selling Romney to the GOP electorate is roughly comparable to trying to sell Lieberman to the Democratic base in the post-Iraq invasion era. The media can do a lot, but it can’t work miracles. They will nip and bite and all Romney’s challengers, no doubt, but there is a bigger conservative media that will do the same to Romney.
This is more like being eaten by a tiger than a pack of wild dogs.
the only thing folks like about Mittens is that his checks clear. when that stops, that’ll be it
OT Booman, but this seems like a big deal to me?
President Obama Endorses DOMA Repeal Bill – Historic Hearing Tomorrow”
IF the economy sours? IF?????
Holy hole in my pocket, Booman, there is no “if” about it! the economy is set to remain miserable and we are nowhere near on track to make gains. The GOP governors in FLA, NJ, WI, IN, and OH are taking the Mohammed Atta approach to their economies, just to make the numbers even worse. Above all else, that is their sole purpose
In fact, I am worried about what happens if the president adopts the Gang of 6 proposal that’s going around, which will not help the situation.
all that said, I agree that Romney’s days are numbered. He comes off as a total phony. And I don’t think there’s anyone acceptable to the riven republican party.
The Antichrist? Seriously? As in seriously for real???
AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
That’s pretty funny.
I still think she could get it, just because the Republican base is batshit insane AND it is probably in the GOP’s best interest to punt this election.
Bachmann to get the votes out for more crazy Congresspeople, Obama to stay to completely own the continually horrible economy, Bachmann to serve as example that a more “reasonable” candidate is needed in 2016.
If not her, than Rick Perry?? <shudder>
I don’t know. I had pretty much the same opinion of McCain in 2008. Republicans hated him. He was the definition of a RINO. He’d crossed Bush on taxes, and committed the unpardonable sin of sponsoring McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform. He didn’t believe in torture and his campaign was filled with ridiculous flip-flops and repudiation of his previous views.
I’m old enough to remember that the original “He isn’t eligible to be president because he isn’t a natural born citizen” attack was leveled by Republicans at McCain, not Obama. Republicans hated him. Until it was obvious that he was going to win the nomination. Then they went all in for him.
Until there’s a real alternative to Romney, his chances are just fine.