At the outset there are two things that I would like to make clear. (1) I  really intended for this to be a short diary. (2) This is NOT an Obama bashing diary. I simply want to offer some opinions from my perspective of the current situation and Obama’s chances to secure a second term in 2012. In my estimation there is still sufficient time to effect some changes in the current political theater. Immediately after Obama won the presidency Rush Limbaugh set the playbook for the devastated Republicans when he said  “I hope he fails!” Since then everybody on the right wing political spectrum in America from the Republican Congress, Talk Radio, Fox TV, Corporate America, Wall Street, and a super rich American plutocracy have been working overtime to bring Limbaugh’s wish to a resounding fruition. Obama is not stupid and I’m sure that he is well aware of the array of forces who stand in opposition to him on every issue. (More below the fold.)
It is my assumption that from the start of his term, Obama took an in-depth analysis of the opposition against him and decided that the chances for his success in the White House were best served by maintaining an obsequious posture of compromise. This aspect of the Obama plan was destined to create a myriad of unresolved problems over the long haul. My disappointment with President Obama set in very early in his administration when I reviewed the people that he had selected for his closest advisors and the people he chose for his Cabinet. There were a few good selections made such as Hillary Clinton to State and several others, but the majority were people from the old Clinton Administration, while some of the others were just political hacks.

I was really disappointed with his selection of Eric Holder as AG, because as the first black president Obama would need a strong resourceful Justice Department. It was obvious to me that a significant part of the battles with the right wing that Obama would have in the future would be legal events. Justice has done less under Obama in terms of investigating civil rights cases than any other Democratic president of recent memory. The success of any Administration is determined by the quality of people with whom the president surrounds himself.

In my estimation the massive amount of political capital that Obama spent on the Health Care bill was definitely an error. Although Obama has signed it into law, its actual political cost cannot be calculated, simply because it provided a cause around which all of the right wing racialist and reactionary groups could rally against Obama. As we all know too well RALLY they did, as demonstrated by the creation of a new political force called the Tea Party, which successfully sent 87 new uncompromising hard right Congressmen to the House. What is constantly lost in all of the talk about the Tea Party is the fact that most of these new House Republicans were successful in defeating “establishment” incumbent Republicans in their respective primaries.

Aside from the problems created by the loss of the House, Obama faces an unbelievable catalog of anti-union and VOTER SUPPRESSION laws in a large number of states around the nation that are controlled by Republicans. The Republicans have dissected every detectable block of voting support for Obama in the 2008 elections and have written laws aimed at hamstringing such support in 2012. Many of these laws are silly and capricious, but they still are currently the law in their respective states. Some states have gone beyond the Voter ID suppression technique and have moved a number of polling places out of black areas, while increasing the number of polling stations in white areas. Legislators have also written legislation manipulating the polling hours in the same manner. Some states have written legislation requiring anyone or any group from another state who is present in the state to assist citizens in voter registration, or providing voter information must register with the Secretary of State’s Office within “X” number days of entering the state. The list goes on and on endlessly. (Just as a note there are 21 Republican controlled state governments versus 11 Democratic controlled state governments. There are 18 split (no one party control for legislature and Governor) control state governments.)

A topic forgotten by everyone except these same state Republicans is the status of the unreliable easily hacked VOTING MACHINES still sitting in the warehouses in many of these states. The current budget crisis in the states will definitely be a rational excuse for reusing these same high criticized voting machines in 2012.

Whereas the Obama Administration has not challenged any of this new voter suppression legislation in the states or taken some action to prevent reuse of well-known defective voting machines, it looks pretty grim for his chances in these 21 Republican controlled states.

Finally in his efforts to be the Compromiser-in-Chief, Obama has steadily chipped away at the enthusiastic support of HIS base. Obama has become a proponent of the old Democratic saw which we hear over and over from Democratic candidates, “If they don’t vote Democratic who are they going to vote for?” Since America is essentially a two party system, this old question implies that there are no reasonable alternatives. However this question overlooks the question of “enthusiasm Suppression”, which is a very effective “campaign worker suppression” technique.

The failure of Obama to deliver on any of his campaign promises to those folks who were energetic enthusiastic members of Obama’s army has created an environment of “enthusiasm suppression” or good old fashioned political turn-off. Unquestionably these people will vote for Obama in 2012, but they WILL NOT provide the ground support that he will so desperately need in 2012. The right wing plutocratic oligarchy will pour billions into videos, advertisements and organizations to fight the Obama campaign on the ground. Therefore Obama’s decision to place his bets on the uncommitted “independent” white voting population at the current time looks very much like a loser’s line. There is something about Obama’s political life thus far that reminds me of an actor playing a character whose psyche morphs from a Cyrano de Bergerac to a Don Quixote, all the while onstage. The interesting thing about this scene is the music coming from the orchestra pit accompanying the Obama character’s transformation shuffle. Gracious me! It’s none other than the Republican National Square Dance band playing the “The Turkey in the Straw, Do Sa Do to the Right” Overture.

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