I wish the calendar for the GOP nomination process wasn’t such a mess. It makes it nearly impossible to game out how the process will unfold. As of now, there isn’t much of a Super Tuesday, and there is also a new rule that’s going to change things dramatically. Primaries held before April will give out delegates proportionately (like the Democratic Party). Primaries in and after April can be winner-take-all. This is a conscious effort by the RNC to prolong the campaign. But it may have unintended consequences.
All we have to assume is that Mitt Romney doesn’t win Iowa, doesn’t win South Carolina, and doesn’t do particularly well in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee on Super Tuesday. Imagine him having won in New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Idaho. But also imagine that he won no more than a third of the delegates in those states. He could easily enter the winner-take-all phase of the primaries with a quarter, or less, of the delegates. And if more than one other candidate is also winning states, Romney’s rivals will be in the same position.
As things stand right now, I think Romney can wrap the nomination up in April, relying on a bunch of blue-state contests. It could happen on April 24th (New York, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island). But if he doesn’t have a commanding lead by then, or if he’s coming from behind in April, we could go into May without a nominee. May contests in North Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Nebraska may not be easy for a Mormon from Massachusetts to win.
If we get to June without any candidate having won a majority of the delegates, it will be decided by California in a winner-take-all primary on June 5th. The only thing on the current calendar after California is Utah, and we know that Romney will win there unless Jon Huntsman has overtaken him in the contest. But, even as big as California is, it might not provide a majority of delegates if no candidate is even close to having half of the delegates.
The longer the contest goes on with multiple candidates winning states, the more likely a brokered convention becomes. If Romney cannot win in the South he might still be able to romp to victory in April. But if he doesn’t wrap it up in April, we could be in for some real excitement.
Sounds like fun.
When are you making spreadsheets?
BooMan,
If what I’m reading is accurate about Bush donors holding back for the right candidate, that could be Perry despite the fact the core leaders of the Bush machine never liked the mofo. Perry could be formidable if he launches his campaign correctly with the right unifying message that eschews the usual race baiting and dog whistles we’re used to.
I also read something about how Rove would be on the outside in the event of a Perry run…something that looks more likely the more vulnerable the economy is today.
Rove will be on board even if Perry is the nominee because he is a loyal Republican and besotted wingnut. He wants Obama out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue because he threatens his patron’s fascist and imperialist legacy. Whomever is nominated, Rove will promote their fanatical ignorance like it is the received word of Gawd.
I have no doubt he’d want to be; the thing is if the Perry folks want him.
From what I read in Politico, all the PACs sprouting up supporting Perry are a result of a distrust of the neutrality of Rove and the bad blood btwn him and Perry.
The Bushies tried and failed spectacularly to overthrow Perry last year. Kay Bailey Hutchison had her ass handed to her by Perry and they will fail again if they attempt to block Perry’s rise. The nomination is his for the taking because Mittens has a glass jaw that is already cracked and Perry can bigfoot Bachmann with the Christian Right.
You are aware that tomorrow Perry is hosting some Christian fundamentalist shindig in Houston run by an organization that the Southern Law Poverty Center considers a hate group?
Having Perry in woudl throw up for grabs. In a brokered convention I think Romney becomes the favorite because the main candidates that would be against him would probably be Perry, Bachman and maybe one other, though those two will tend to be the strongest. Romney really is the only one that would have a chance against Obama in the general.
The best part about this is how the Republican candidates are going to have to spend almost all their money on the primaries and start fresh for the general.
Should read “throw things up for grabs”. Although thinking of Perry, or indeed any Republican as President definitely cause me to want to throw up.
I don’t think that is a benefit: Crossroads and the like are already up on the air attacking the President and will continue to do so throughout the nomination fight. And right now, it doesn’t look like enough DEM money is going to the third party operations to make the kind of dent Crossroads did in ’10.
Isn’t excitement the whole point. Seven full months of ever escalating crazy and Obama bashing leading up to a convention that people will want to watch because the outcome is unknown. It might even draw major network coverage like in the days before Nixon created the scripted convention.
And it will suck all of the oxygen out of the room.
Meanwhile, the donkeys plod along doing same old, same old. Even talking about conceding states like Indiana. Did I ever tell you that Democratic strategist are the most overpaid idiots in politics?