I wish the calendar for the GOP nomination process wasn’t such a mess. It makes it nearly impossible to game out how the process will unfold. As of now, there isn’t much of a Super Tuesday, and there is also a new rule that’s going to change things dramatically. Primaries held before April will give out delegates proportionately (like the Democratic Party). Primaries in and after April can be winner-take-all. This is a conscious effort by the RNC to prolong the campaign. But it may have unintended consequences.
All we have to assume is that Mitt Romney doesn’t win Iowa, doesn’t win South Carolina, and doesn’t do particularly well in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee on Super Tuesday. Imagine him having won in New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Idaho. But also imagine that he won no more than a third of the delegates in those states. He could easily enter the winner-take-all phase of the primaries with a quarter, or less, of the delegates. And if more than one other candidate is also winning states, Romney’s rivals will be in the same position.
As things stand right now, I think Romney can wrap the nomination up in April, relying on a bunch of blue-state contests. It could happen on April 24th (New York, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island). But if he doesn’t have a commanding lead by then, or if he’s coming from behind in April, we could go into May without a nominee. May contests in North Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Nebraska may not be easy for a Mormon from Massachusetts to win.
If we get to June without any candidate having won a majority of the delegates, it will be decided by California in a winner-take-all primary on June 5th. The only thing on the current calendar after California is Utah, and we know that Romney will win there unless Jon Huntsman has overtaken him in the contest. But, even as big as California is, it might not provide a majority of delegates if no candidate is even close to having half of the delegates.
The longer the contest goes on with multiple candidates winning states, the more likely a brokered convention becomes. If Romney cannot win in the South he might still be able to romp to victory in April. But if he doesn’t wrap it up in April, we could be in for some real excitement.
