Here are the results of the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll that was conducted this afternoon:
1. Michele Bachmann: 4823 votes
2. Ron Paul: 4671
3. Tim Pawlenty: 2293
4. Rick Santorum: 1657
5. Herman Cain: 1456
6. Rick Perry: 718 (write-in)
7. Mitt Romney: 567
8. Newt Gingrich: 385
9. Jon Huntsman 69
10. Thaddeus McCotter: 35
This is really not a scientific poll. It’s more an indicator of who has organizational strength and money to waste on buying votes. And, let’s face it, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are not going to be the president of the United States of America. Not to pick on anyone, but this is like suggesting that Dennis Kucinich or Alan Grayson might plausibly win control of the Earth’s most lethal military arsenal some day. It will never happen.
As for Tim Pawlenty, he actually tried to win this thing and got totally humiliated. He used to be the governor of Minnesota. Michele Bachmann is a measly back-benching member of Minnesota’s congressional delegation. And she more than doubled his tally. He probably should end his campaign tomorrow since he can’t gain any traction whatsoever.
Now, even though Mitt Romney is a Mormon and Iowa’s Republican base is mostly made up of Christian evangelicals who compete with Mormons to make converts, Romney actually won the Ames Straw poll in 2007. He did it by throwing a lot of money around. The problem is that it was Mike Huckabee, an actual Christian evangelical, who got the bump out of the straw poll by coming in second place. Huckabee went on to win the Iowa caucuses in 2008. So, this time, Romney saved his money and he won’t seriously contend to win the plurality of Iowa’s delegates. Still, his name was on the ballot today, and Texas Governor Rick Perry’s name wasn’t. And Rick Perry got more write-in votes than Romney got regular votes.
If you’re honest, you have to go all the way down this list to sixth place before you find in Perry someone who has the remotest chance of becoming president. I mean, Pawlenty has a certain surface-level plausibility, but he just got doubled up by Michele Bachmann. And if TPaw is dead-in-the-water, you have to go all the way down to seventh place to find in Romney someone who is both acceptable to the Republican Establishment and not absolutely loathed by the Bush family and machine.
It’s an extraordinary situation. Molly Ball of Politico might want to turn Perry’s entrance into the race into some fairy tale, but I’m here to tell you that a huge segment of the Republican Establishment will only embrace him with the most extreme reluctance. They’re secretly hoping that he does one thing. They’re hoping that he dilutes enough support from Bachmann to ensure that Romney can limp to the nomination. And then they’re hoping that Romney picks neither of them to be his running-mate.
And let’s face up to one more thing. The Republicans are like a boat that has broken up on the rocks. They have no coherent political philosophy at all, and the one that they’re pretending exists is so stupid and toxic that it just resulted in a downgrade in the country’s credit rating. To even have people this stupid and dishonest exist is dangerous enough to make us an AA+ nation.
Good luck trying to overcome that obstacle while lying yourself into the Oval Office.
