I think Charlie Cook is wrong. I don’t care what the polls show right now, next year’s election is not going to be close and whichever party wins the presidential election will have huge wins in the House. The Senate is a different matter. The Republicans are largely inoculated against any big losses in the Senate simply because they are only defending 10 seats and most of those are in extremely red states.
It’s possible that Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination and he could conceivably win or lose in a close election that mirrors the near-ties we saw in 2000 and 2004. If Romney does not win the nomination, the odds are that Obama will win reelection in a fashion more reminiscent of Nixon and Reagan’s reelection than Clinton or Bush’s. But even a Romney/Obama matchup is unlikely, in my view, to be close. I think, ultimately, that people will reject one or the other of them rather emphatically.
I don’t think the economy will be the deciding factor. At least, not if it stays the way it is now. I think the election will be decided in much the same fashion as the 1980 election. That contest was close until mid-October, when it tilted heavily and decisively in Reagan’s direction. Carter probably would have survived even in the face of a pathetic economy if people had the sense that he had our foreign policy under control. But he couldn’t solve the Iranian Hostage Crisis, so people really had nothing to point to argue that the president was doing a good job. They rolled the dice on a B-List actor.
I think the same conditions will apply next year. Obama will have to face the voters and defend a record that has not been able to significantly reduce the unemployment rate or the housing crisis. But his opponent won’t have much credibility as an alternative. I do not believe that the people will be convinced that electing a Republican is the solution to our economic problems. But, if we’re suffering some crisis in our foreign policies in addition to tough economic conditions, people may just decide that Obama isn’t getting it done on any level.
I think people are beginning to realize that the Republicans really have only one viable candidate, meaning only one candidate who could avoid a complete blowout. But Mitt Romney is an extremely flawed candidate. He is performing pretty well in the debates, but he just doesn’t inspire anyone and he can’t decide what he believes. He’s probably the worst flip-flopper in the history of politics, going all the way back to Greek city-states and including all races down to unincorporated hamlets. He’s also the unlikeliest champion imaginable for the anti-Obama crowd. He could still win and win big. But he’ll need some divine providence to make it happen.
