Your Morning in Newt

This is why I am kind of afraid to flap my butterfly wings and say anything critical of Newt Gingrich or to even mention the following:

Conservative Republicans are going to vote for Mitt in the end in the general whether they like him or not. It doesn’t looks like that’s necessarily the case for moderate Republicans when it comes to Newt.

This Florida poll is just one more piece of evidence: if the Republicans actually want to beat Obama they need to nominate Romney, love him or not.

Oops. I flapped my wings anyway. Newt’s ego is already fully inflated and he thinks he’s going to win the nomination. Who am I to get in the way? How could I not want to run against him?

9 Comments

Phil Perspective on December 2, 2011 at 9:14 am

I disagree with PPP’s analysis. The general campaign hasn’t started in earnest. Just because Mittens looks great right now doesn’t mean anything. The general election is a year out. Just look at the unemployment numbers. I know the report isn’t that great, but that never stopped anyone with spinning the numbers.

Anonymous on December 2, 2011 at 10:49 am

I would’ve agreed with them, but then I saw that recent Fox interview. Everyone has a bad day, and maybe that was just Romney’s, but he sure didn’t look like he was playing in the big league. I’m a little shocked by how amateurish he looked. I thought that at least he could maintain a facade of polished professionalism.
on December 2, 2011 at 12:07 pm

comparison is to look at Obama’s approval rating and Newt’s favorable rating. In the poll Obama’s approval rating is 45-50 negative (-5) while Newt’s favorability is 37-51 negative (-14). Newt’s numbers are bad, but so are Obama’s.

This far out, with the economy in the state it is in, I would not predict the outcome of a race with candidates with those numbers.

I should note, though, that the crosstabs on this poll make no sense. According to the poll, only 13% are between 18 and 45. Are you kidding me?

Here are the demographics from CNN for Florida in 2008. 31% of the electorate was 39 or under, and another 20% were between 40 and 49.
18-24 (8%) 60% 39% 1%
25-29 (7%) 62% 35% 3%
30-39 (16%) 53% 45% 2%
40-49 (20%) 45% 54% 1%
50-64 (27%) 54% 44% 2%
65 or Over (22%)

Link to the exit poll here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=FLP00p1

PPP has been doing this consistently. In every poll they find about half of the turnout among the young as that that occured in 2008 and 2004.

rikyrah on December 2, 2011 at 9:20 am

just waiting for the next debate…not that I’ll watch it personally, but I will follow the liveblogging closely.

mainsailset on December 2, 2011 at 10:40 am

I’m still betting that Newt and Mitt are both going to implode and there will be one more candidate who rockets up in the polls.

boran2 on December 2, 2011 at 10:41 am

You’ve got wings?!!

MassCommons on December 2, 2011 at 11:10 am

I think Barney Frank was right. “I did not think I had lived a good enough life to have Newt Gingrich be the Republican nominee for president.”*

I’m still not convinced it will happen. There’s still over a month before the Iowa caucuses for Gingrich to implode—and he has a proven ability to do so.

*all quotes guaranteed approximate.

Ocotillo on December 2, 2011 at 12:04 pm

There was a poll recently that I am too lazy to look up that stated GOP primary voters by a large margin would rather nominate a “strong conservative” then someone perceived as more moderate who has a better chance of beating the president in a national election.

Gist of the poll is idealogical purity is more important than winning. The article the poll was cited in was about Mittens miscalculating this audience as he selling point was electability.