Back in late-May, the New York Times reported:
[Mitt Romney] has told friends that he felt burned by the process in Iowa four years ago. He invested $10 million and finished second in the caucuses to Mr. Huckabee, who spent a sliver of that amount. Mr. Romney also struggled to connect with religious conservatives and often spent more time trying to convince people that his rightward-shifting positions on abortion and gay rights were changes of heart rather than decisions of political expediency.
At the time, Romney was making his first appearance in Iowa of the year. At the same point in the 2007-08 cycle, Romney had been running television ads for three months and had successfully won the coveted Ames Straw Poll. It’s clear that Romney did not want to make the same mistake twice. Having invested so much in Iowa four years ago only to come away with a disappointing second place loss, his team decided to focus this time on friendlier territory in New Hampshire.
But then a funny thing happened. Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin all opted not to run for president. Tim Pawlenty went broke and dropped out. Suddenly, there was no real competition for Iowa and Romney lost his easy excuse for losing there. If he can’t beat Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry in Iowa, then what kind of frontrunner is he?
The weakness of the field sucked Romney back into Iowa. But no sooner did he rededicate himself to competing in the caucuses than he saw polls numbers like this (pdf):
With the Iowa caucuses just for weeks away, Newt Gingrich, at 31%, holds a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney (17%) and Ron Paul (16%). Romney and Paul are virtually tied for second.
Romney may be headed for a third-place finish in Iowa that will wind up costing him his lead in New Hampshire. And then Romney will have to head south to South Carolina and Florida, where Mormons are not always well-regarded by the Southern Baptist base of the GOP.
It’s still too early to make confident predictions, but we may look back at this contest and conclude that Romney was doomed by a lack of real competition. If had had just one real candidate to lose to in Iowa with a little dignity, his plan might have worked. Instead, we might reflect that he had been destroyed once again in the Hawkeye State, despite his determination not to let that happen.
my dad and I are both praying it’ll be newt. Not only is he unelectable, he’s incredibly entertaining. It may even be worth watching the debates.
I’d prefer Little Rickey.
ricky’s no fun. newt’s at least funny.
Boo…I thought of you while drinking my coffee at 4:30 a.m. this morning (you know, “We won’t rest until they’re frog-marched out”…now I know that “they” must be the “one-percent”…)
As a radical right-winger, Newt scares the hell out of me because I want to win…
There is only one group that should be more frightened…
Obama’s reelection team! If he avoids his Howard Dean moment, Newt is our best candidate in regards to articulating Conservative principles…
Newt is erratic and unpredictable, with a lot of baggage, but potent when on message…
Kind of like Rocky Balboa (hopefully)…
He’s got a puncher’s chance…Romney equals prevent defense…
I still don’t know who to support.
At this point, Willard has devolved from candidate to stalker wannabe boyfriend.
He’s tried to buy their love. He says all the things they want say to try to win their love. He keeps returning over and over to try to demonstrate his love.
And at this point, you have to learn and accept, they’re just not that in to you.
Devolved? Hell, he’s always been that!
Only two things keeping me from getting excited at the prospect of Nominee Newt:
1 – the 2004 Democratic Iowa caucuses—wasn’t it just about this time that Howard Dean was the surging favorite, only Kerry’s ground game was beginning to overtake him? Why yes, I believe it was. And a bunch of polls either missed it, or picked it up too late.
2 – Older folks may recall all the liberal Democrats eager for Ronald Reagan to win the 1980 Republican nomination—because even though Carter was vulnerable, the voters would never entrust the presidency to someone as loony as Reagan.
OK. Assume Romney loses in Iowa and the following states. That leaves the clowns in charge of the circus. The dumber clowns at that.
Is there really any likelihood that Newt will survive until the Convention? Let alone actually get the nod from the convention as the candidate? I have too much faith in Newt’s ability to self-destruct between now and August to imagine that happening.
So what happens then? Will Romney be resurrected as a zombie candidate, then paired with a social conservative the way McCain was with Palin at the convention?
As an alternative, the panicky Republican establishment might pull out all the stops in Iowa and eke out a bare win for Mitt, then let him limp into the convention on the basis of propaganda from the Republican media.
you know, it’s impossible to predict what will happen when a party cannot produce a candidate for office more desirable than Mitt Freakin’ Romney. I’ve been all over the place. I initially predicted that Romney had no change. Then, when Perry flamed out, I began to think Romney would win all 50 states. I’m back to thinking he could be doomed. But who would win then? I have no idea. So, maybe Romney can’t lose. Or not.
I still think no Republican except Romney has a chance to win the nomination. As much as so many Republicans do not like him, no other candidate can pull together as many groups of Republicans along with the the money Republicans and the Republican establishment. (Of course, Romney may be losing them.) The crazies need not apply for front runner and Huntsman can’t get even as much of the base as Romney can. (Huntsman tried to tell the truth and the base will never forgive him for that.)
I don’t know the history of the Whigs in the 1850’s well enough to compare, but I’ll bet it looked a lot like the current Republicans. One difference, though, is that today there is a national Republican Party that is institutionalized with funding and supported by national media. But it has no real connection to the individual Republican voters in many of the states.
it’s not the Iowa numbers that should make Willard nervous.
it’s the South Carolina and the Florida numbers. remember, Willard was supposed to rebound in Florida, after counting on losing in South Carolina. those Florida numbers are crazy
Yup, and now he’s going west to find a firewall in AZ and the like and the same thing is happening there that is happening nationally.
I still maintain that this is all about his faith; if Mitt Romney were the same robotic Ken doll politico only a mainline Christian denomination or even Jewish he’d be the front runner, easily. In spite of the flip-flops.
I half expect to see the teabaggers take over the primary process like they did in all those Senate races in 2010.
Meanwhile, the new CNN/Time poll has Newt cutting Romney’s lead in NH to single digits. Be interesting to see where things go just in the next week or two, much less by January.
uh oh…Mittens main MSM stalker is sweating the news of Gingrich beating Mittens in so many polls. When you lose Halperin….????
*NEWT NATION*