According to the latest PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU poll, less than a third of Americans think Barack Obama will be defeated in next year’s election. I confess that I am little surprised to see such a small number. The key swing ‘independent/other’ category is in rough agreement with the overall numbers. Just 31% of independents think Romney would win, while only 27% think Gingrich could pull it off. Yet, a new USA Today/Gallup Swing-State Poll shows a Republican enthusiasm advantage and some worrisome results for the president.
I think the key dynamics are starting to show, but they aren’t necessarily showing up in the polls, yet. The Republicans may be generically more motivated. That’s natural for the party out of power. But they’re horribly split over their two front-runners, both of whom are simply unacceptable to a huge swath of the party. Once they have to settle for a candidate, I think the enthusiasm rating of the Republican base will take a major nosedive.
What do you think?
I think you blogger and pundit types are in for a very anticlimactic 2012. Don’t worry, you can still make fun of firebaggers instead.
Despite what I’m sure will be a credible performance by the President to frame the election as the “most importantest election ever!” and a colossal tipping point for our society, I think America will just shrug and quietly and uncontroversially reaffirm him for things not being total shit. 1996 all over again. And then we see what happens with the filibuster.
I was feeling a little 1996-flavor as I was writing this piece. I almost mentioned it.
The thing is, it feels that way right now, but things are quite a bit more out of control at the moment. Both our domestic politics and the international political/economic scene are very volatile right now. And the difference between Dole and Clinton’s vision of government was minor in comparison to the choice people will have this time around, even if Romney is the nominee.
In 1996, our job was to convince people that it was Gingrich, not Dole, who would run the show. This time, we don’t even have to make that argument. It’s self-evident. In many ways, Gingrich is one of less radical candidates.
I think Democratic enthusiasm will pick up when there’s a specific candidate to focus on.
That’s a pretty striking condemnation of the candidate they already have.
Er, no, it’s actually a more-of-less universal phenomenon in elections with an incumbent president.
No its not. Obama’s field offices are teeming with people and new comers. Lets not forget the tons of money he’s been getting from small donors.
I think there will be some drop in Republican enthusiasm, some increase in Democratic enthusiasm, and Obama will end up being re-elected in a not terribly close election. I also think that next year’s election is far enough out that it’s tough to take what I think now very seriously.
Nonetheless, Obama is going to be an energetic and polarizing figure, if not a terribly popular one. He’s almost certainly going to face a weak opponent. This is the kind of election that incumbents tend to win.
Republicans tend to come together, and they’ll rally in opposition to President Obama once they have their convention. I’m sure the VP pick will be made to ensure that that happens. (We saw enthusiasm from evangelicals rocket up when McCain picked Palin.) At the same time, I do buy that we’ll get a bit more of a Dem enthusiasm bump with Gingrich.
Ultimately I think this election is going to be decided by the Merkozy twins in Europe…
At this point, the large differences between Mitt and non-Mitt-flavor-of-the-min are magnified. When the nominee is chosen, people will RATIONALIZE and accept, and his numbers will rise. Will he be McCain or Bush I or Reagan? No one knows at this point, and events (like in 2008) can have a pretty important effect on the race.
Thus, I expect that the numbers for either Mitt or NMFOTM will change and RISE CONSIDERABLY. I too expect 1996, but am going to work myself on the election to ensure that 1996 is what happens. If the Senate stays D and the House becomes D, things may be OK. Otherwise, hard to say.
I agree. I think Obama Derangement Syndrome will outweigh distaste for their candidate. I think the presidential votes will still be there, but I’m hoping the money and boots on the ground will be depressed and help us in down ballot races by having less negative material to overcome.
I don’t get this belief that Romney people (only about 20% anyway) and Gingrich people won’t support the nominee. Where do Romney and Gingrich really disagree? Each disagrees with their past record far more than they disagree with each other.
You can already see Gingrich’s trial heats improve.
There is, though, a bombshell poll from Iowa today….
You’re falling into the Dem error of thinking it’s about policy and principle. It’s about image, and despite all his skeletons, Gingrich is simply more attractive and remains a virtuoso of the dog whistle.
don’t think that at all. The GOP is actually better at realizing it is about one thing: winning (to quote Charlie Sheen).
This will be about personality and electability.
Obama-hate or not, I think the primary brutality will depress GOP enthusiasm no matter who wins it. Romney has not rallied the base at all, and there’s no reason to think he’ll suddenly be able to pull it off.
I’ve come to think that Gingrich will be the more formidable opponent if nominated. Our side eternally imagines that elections are won or lost on policy. Wrong. Everything depends on tribal signaling, and Newt is great at that. What stirs the GOP base up is not economic or foreign policy, but paranoid hysteria about the demise of White dominion, victimizing Christianity, the threat of alien conspiracy, taking away our guns, dissing the Judeo-Christian-Muslim gods’ sexual obsessions, and attacking capitalism as our way of life.
New will fire them up on those social hysterias and get more mileage with low-info voters with attacks on corrupt socialist meddling in favor of Wall Street, the drugwar, and “soft on terrorism”. Gingrich will hae a hard time with a broad swath of indies and Reagan Dems, but Dems will count on rational discussion and character attacks at their peril. I think Newt will lose, but will do better than Romney would have.
will run on claiming he was partially responsible for the economy of the 90’s. It’s pretty absurd, but if the economy is troubled it might work.
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The large potential of voters are registered as Independents. Their vote will determine the next president. In all European elections, the incumbents are slaughtered at the polls. No discrimination between right wing or left socialist candidates. In a fair race of Election 2012, the majority of incumbents will be defeated by voter dissatisfaction. Change will be the voters’ theme. For Obama it will be an uphill battle in November 2012. GOTV will be crucial.
Helle Thorning-Schmidt: "We did it... today we've written history"Right wing losers in recent polls: Denmark, Germany and Italy. Socialist party saw defeat in England and Spain.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."They said this about Democrats last time and look what happened. Romney will get the nomination and come perilously close to winning. Our only hope is keeping this recovery going, and bringing unemployment down.
It may be shaping up to be a situation in which cultural issues (guns, god, gays, generic) have to take front and center. It seems to be a fair bet at this point that the GOP isn’t going to have a polarizing figure to rally around in the way that they need; the right-wing outrage machine will have to take the reins to generate the turnout needed to take the Senate and maintain a shutout lead in the House. But they certainly know how to do that.
The enthusiasm gap is always crucial, but absent a rallying cause of some sort, no matter what happens next, the GOP prez candidate is not going to be that rallying point.