I hadn’t anticipated this line of attack. How do you convince people who are inclined to vote for Ron Paul in the Iowa Caucuses to change their mind? You can try to discuss issues and policies, but if they are already leaning towards Rep. Paul, that may not be too effective. How about telling people that if Rep. Paul wins the caucuses, the Republicans will stop letting Iowa be the first state in the nation to hold a nominating contest? In other words, if you vote for Rep. Paul, it may be the last time you get to vote in an important caucus. All the money that Iowa sees every four years may simply dry up.
With his left-of-Obama foreign policy views, libertarian outlook on social issues and paper trail of controversial statements, a Paul victory could represent a potentially devastating blow to the tradition of Republicans starting their White House campaigns in Iowa.
“Mortal,” said Doug Gross, a leading Republican lawyer and Branstad adviser, when asked how severe the wound of a Paul win would be.
“I think a Paul win would be devastating for the state of Iowa and the caucus process,” added Sam Clovis, an influential talk radio host in Northwest Iowa who endorsed Rick Santorum Monday.
The back up plan is to pretend that Ron Paul doesn’t exist. Here’s the Republican governor of Iowa speaking:
“People are going to look at who comes in second and who comes in third,” said Gov. Terry Branstad. “If [Mitt] Romney comes in a strong second, it definitely helps him going into New Hampshire and the other states.”
Now, what’s interesting is that the Republicans are also voicing concern about how they believe Rep. Paul will win the caucuses. They think he will attract a bunch if independents and some Democrats who will show up and register as Republicans on January 3rd. It’s similar to how Barack Obama succeeded in beating John Edwards and Hillary Clinton in the caucuses four years ago. The problem, from the Republicans’ point of view, is that they do not believe these voters will vote for the Republican nominee if it isn’t Ron Paul. All they’ll do is help select a candidate in Iowa who holds some very unorthodox and heretical views. It’s a rather self-limiting way of looking at things. Ordinarily, you’d welcome a candidate who was adding droves of new voters to your party list.
I’m not suggesting that the Iowa Caucuses are representative of the country as a whole, or even of Iowa as a whole, but it will still be meaningful if Ron Paul is more popular there than any of the orthodox candidates the Republicans could produce. It could be a canary in a coal mine, suggesting something fundamental is broken in the GOP’s coalition. New Hampshire allows independents to vote, and Ron Paul could surprise some people there as well.
Maybe Iowa has reason to be concerned about a Ron Paul victory in the caucuses, but the Establishment would let out a sigh of relief. It would allow them to sell Romney on national security grounds to a base that has so far resisted all sales efforts for the Mittster.
