Eight days ago, I stuck my neck out and made some predictions about how the Iowa Caucuses would go. Here’s a reminder of my bottom line:
I’m a believer in late momentum, and on that score it appears that Paul and Santorum are the ones set to exceed expectations, while Gingrich and Bachmann are set to disappoint. Right now, I expect the following order in Iowa: 1. Ron Paul 2. Mitt Romney 3. Newt Gingrich 4. Rick Santorum 5. Rick Perry 6. Michele Bachmann 7. Jon Huntsman.
Even small news events can reshuffle the deck, and I expect plenty of news events, but this is my prediction as of tonight.
I didn’t talk too much about Rick Santorum. I noted that he had late momentum, that a fourth place finish in Iowa would cause some people to give him a fresh look, said that Huntsman would outperform him in New Hampshire, and asserted that Santorum isn’t a natural fit in the South. In other words, I didn’t think it would ultimately matter a whole lot if Santorum finished in fourth place. But, what if he finishes higher than that?
The only way I can see Santorum winning any contests outside of Iowa, except maybe in his home state of Pennsylvania, is if he can emerge as the lone social conservative in the race. And I include Newt Gingrich in the social conservative category, because that is where he gets most of his support. If Santorum finishes in the top three in Iowa, as now appears entirely possible, and the other two top-finishers are Romney and Paul, then Santorum could quickly find himself in an ideal position. If Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich are knocked out before the contest heads to the South, Santorum would be the only candidate who has both a convincingly socially conservative record and acceptable positions on international affairs. Compared to Romney, Santorum is a model of consistency. Compared to Romney and Huntsman, he’s clearly more conservative. And he doesn’t hold unorthodox positions on U.S. foreign policy or U.S. relations with Israel. Say what you want, but this is a problem for Ron Paul:
Mr. [David] Duke, who was something of a mentor to [Stormfront founder] Mr. [Don] Black during their days in the Klan, called in to discuss Mr. Paul. Though he said he wasn’t ready to make an official endorsement, Mr. Duke explained why he’ll be voting for Mr. Paul.
“Again, I go back to that, you know, traditional topic that I always talk about, you know, the powers of international Zionism–a power in banking, a power in media, a power in government influence, in campaign finance–a power that’s, you know, hurting the values of this country on behalf of Israel,” Mr. Duke said. “So, I would vote for Ron Paul at this moment because he’s one of the few candidates who have policies in this regard and this realm that I wholeheartedly support, and that’s why I’d vote for him.”
Rick Santorum has some baggage, but he doesn’t have anything comparable to that. I’d be shocked if Rick Santorum started winning primaries. I could see him, maybe, catching lightning in Iowa, but that’s about it. But if things fall just right for him, who knows? If he doesn’t have Bachmann, Perry, and Gingrich dividing up the socially conservative vote in the South, he could do some damage. He doesn’t have Mike Huckabee’s personal charisma or his outsider status, but he could nonetheless become the Huckabee of this election cycle.
Another question is whether or not Ron Paul can win in Iowa. If he doesn’t, Romney could coast through the first two contests and look a bit inevitable. As I analyze the race just four days before Iowa kicks things off, the two most important things I am looking for are if Ron Paul can win and if Rick Perry can do well enough to keep himself alive for South Carolina. If neither of those things happen, I expect Romney to have a casual walk to the nomination, even if he doesn’t win every contest along the way.
My updated predictions involve some hunches. Paul and Romney appear to be tied in the polls, but Paul is bringing new voters and has a better ground game. For now, that leads me to give him the slightest of edges.
1. Ron Paul 2. Mitt Romney 3. Rick Santorum 4. Rick Perry 5. Newt Gingrich 6. Michele Bachmann 7. Jon Huntsman
And, to really stick my neck out, here’s my New Hampshire prediction:
1. Mitt Romney 2. Ron Paul 3. Jon Huntsman 4. Rick Santorum 5. Newt Gingrich 6. Rick Perry 7. Michele Bachmann
Assuming these results, what will the lead-up to South Carolina feel like?
First, Romney will look strong after stumbling in Iowa. But both he and Paul will have to contend with the poll numbers coming out of the Palmetto State. Will either of them be polling in the top two? Currently, Newt Gingrich has a strong lead in South Carolina polls, but after 5th and 6th place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, I expect his support to go to someone else. A tiny bit of it would go to Jon Huntsman, but most of it would go to Santorum and Rick Perry (if Perry is still in the race). I say that there is no reason for Perry to quit before South Carolina, but that doesn’t mean he won’t.
At this point, I’ve engaged in enough conditional arguments that further speculation is not going to be fruitful. Let’s just say that Romney still looks quite strong, even if he comes in second place in Iowa. No scenario has emerged that allows me to envision someone else winning the nomination.
What say you?
