As I noted last night, the knives have come out for Mitt Romney. What this tells me is that tonight’s result is unlikely to matter much. Romney will gain almost nothing from winning because most Republicans are nowhere near resigned to him being the nominee, and his opponents are ramping up their criticism in a way that is doing real damage to his general election prospects. Republicans are attacking vulture capitalism. Who would have predicted?
If Romney wins by twenty or thirty points, he’ll certainly make a statement, but he’ll still face on all-out onslaught in South Carolina. If Romney wins narrowly, it will be treated as a defeat. I don’t see much of a difference either way. If he can win South Carolina, he’ll probably be able to silence his critics in the GOP. If he loses in South Carolina, he’ll have to rely on his money advantage to win in Florida, but with Super PACs, there is no guarantee that his opponents will be broke. One rich guy could finance Gingrich’s Florida campaign, just as one rich guy is funding his South Carolina campaign.
Romney has been making some gaffes recently. I think he’s going to have a less than spectacular finish tonight, and he may not be able to weather the storm in South Carolina. I’ve frequently felt like Romney might run the table and win every contest. Yet, when they finally certify the results in Iowa, I think Santorum might be the winner there. And there’s really no sign that the GOP is closing ranks behind him. I suppose this contest could become interesting, although the chances of that are still low.
Oh I think New Hampshire DOES matter. The longer Romney keeps on winning the harder he will be to stop. The longer it takes for the rest of the field to shake out to one credible alternative, the more inevitable his nomination will come to seem. Somebody other than Romney has got to generate some sustained momentum in order to prolong this contest. And the longer the contest, the greater the chances of Obama becoming the ultimate winner.
Only a third party run by Paul would be even better for Obama – although that may also energise the Republican vote in congressional races. Ideally Paul will last long enough to really damage the Republican nominee, but not long enough to sustain or generate Republican momentum for congressional and down ticket races. Ideally he really generates debate around US foreign policy and drugs policies even under Obama, without ever becoming a credible alternative. That way the Republican base and policy stances are undermined, and the way cleared for an Obama re-election with a more progressive congressional and policy mandate.
But right now progressives need Paul and one other republican to do well against Romney, if only to ensure that as much as possible of the potential right wing cash pool is spent on an internecine Republican fight as possible; demoralising and exhausting remaining support available for the eventual nominee. Maybe that is partly why Greenwald is hyping Paul even if he doesn’t actually, ultimately, support him.
I agree with your comments, which are astute.
But when I say NH doesn’t matter, I mean that it doesn’t look like it will winnow the field and it doesn’t seem like the margin of Romney’s victory will matter too much.
Of course NH doesn’t matter. South Carolina is what really matters re: the GOP. Even before Little Ricky’s “win” in Iowa, everyone knew Mittens would win NH. What matters, if at all, in NH is Mittens margin of victory. If Mittens can’t even crack 35% in NH, he’s in big trouble.
I think the most significant possible result of NH is a strong-second place finish by Huntsman. If he stays in as a semi-credible challenger and can raise a few bucks, he could be yet another pain in the ass for Mitt Romney, which isn’t really what Mitt needs right now.
Also, I gotta hand it to Gingrich for destroying GOP message discipline on their “job creator” bullshit literally overnight.
Technical question. Do they in fact certify the results in Iowa? Haven’t seen the Republican rules, but it all looks pretty loose. Do they preserve a trail of custody for the ballots? I understand in some precincts they show hands.
my understanding is that they will certify after two weeks. But the caucuses don’t actually select delegates, so it really isn’t very important. Ron Paul probably got the most people elected to go to the county conventions, so he probably won Iowa.