The networks called it for Romney as soon as the polls closed. As I predicted, New Hampshire chose Jon Huntsman as their not-Mitt candidate. It appears that he will finish third. Santorum was regurgitated and will finish dead last out of the candidates who are actually competing. Call me a genius.
What are your observations on the numbers?
35% for Romney with 12% in. Not great for his “its given you will win this state” state
That is disgusting!
I apologize.
For all the sturm und drang, Romney will pick up a 2, maybe 3, delegate advantage on Paul tonight.
That was a resoundingly uninteresting result. I guess it proves Huntsman is irrelevant as everyone thought, maybe.
I guess. He came in well above where he was polling just a week ago. Problem is, where does he get a win?
New Hampshire.
In 2016.
you’re probably right. I just watched his speech and I liked it a lot. Then the Republican analyst on MSNBC said the speech sucked.
If the GOP ever recovers from its tailspin, Huntsman will be a very powerful candidate for them. I like his overall public presentation, and I know better. He has real crossover appeal in a way that hasn’t been seen since Reagan, imo.
I don’t know why anyone thought any of these jokers would have a shot to be the not-Romney. Only Paul has the organization / following / money to duke it out for the long run…and if he sticks around long enough to challenge Romney in some of the later states, it could be interesting.
Paul’s organization and money and following are all of a special kind — and one that hasn’t been very successful yet historically
Ask President Dean.
Having some organization is better than having none at all. Does anyone think Newt Gingrich’s sugar daddy Sheldon Adelson will keep the money flowing after he flames out spectacularly? Santorum has no organization. Huntsman and Perry are both done.
Definitely one of the weakest fields in memory…no way a one-term governor who didn’t run for reelection because he’d get his ass handed to him should be the nominee.
Good showing, Booman (Santorum might take over):
~Booman, Dec 30th
~Me
We’re like neck and neck haha.
I did think that Huntsman would pull a larger percentage. I imagined the percentages to be like this:
Romney – 32%
Paul – 23%
Huntsman – 22%
Santorum and Gingrich tied with 10%, but with Gingrich leading.
Crap. You had Santorum over Gingrich…I accidentally posted the order I had them in. Oh well, you get the gist.
And notice that the polls were quite different at that point.
That’s why you read this blog.
Some idiot came in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th.
That was my prediction.
Ron Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich and Santorum’s numbers separately if combined behind one “non-Mittens” candidate would have really give Romney a run for his money.
Plus I heard on MSNBC, that Romney and Paul campaigns essentially have an “understanding”. By staying in the race, Paul pulls at least 1/4 of the vote away from the other non-Mitt candidates coupled with the divided proportions of the other non-Mitts and Romney still wins with only 30-35% of any of the votes.
So Paul attacks everyone from the right and yet if you’ve noticed Paul hasn’t attacked Mittens directly or much in advertising. Ron Paul who as Lawrence O said correctly, WILL NOT win the nom and will more than likely not be allowed to speak at the convention (can you imagine what Paul would say. The GOP are stupid, but not that stupid) is the spoiler in this primary and Romney gets to take full advantage of it. Between Paul and his superpacs and this media environment’s pathological refusal to at least give the illusion of correcting or calling out right lies about Obama record, Romney can pretty much coast to the nomination at this point.
I never thought I’d say this, but I’m rooting for Newton to go full fuckin’ nuclear on Romney’s ass. I can’t even stand Newt, but my gawd somebody needs to take Romney down a peg. Shit, I guess I’m gonna have to wait til the debates with POTUS cause this media ain’t planning on calling Romney out for any of his damn lies. ROMNEY WILL BE THE NOMINEE, but damn I hope Newt leaves him battered and bruised!
John Harwood on MSNBC said his sources said that Ron Paul is going to SC tomorrow and that they plan to increase their ad buy with attack ads against Gingrich and Santorum. I’m telling Ron Paul’s campaign is working for Mittens. If Mittens picks Rand Paul as VP, then we will know what going on.
If Mittens picks Rand Paul for veepee, that means he didn’t win a majority of the delegates and the convention has been brokered.
well, this is def a possibility right. But with the guided or misguided passion behind Ron Paul and his ability to do pretty well when fund-raising, then if anyone can run the gambit, Ron Paul has that ability more than the other non-Mitts right?
Rev Al on MSNBC made a good point. So Ron Paul gets a close 2nd best number of delegates and large enough numbers who will probably not get a convention speech, who will probably be kept as far away from the podium as possible has this large number and the delegates have to be seated right? How does the nominee and the party keep that crew from voicing their displeasure with Romney’s platform that is completely anti-thethic to the Paul-bots views? Either Paul has to ask for their support and to bascially be quiet (not gonna happen) or Paul gets to speak, or…Rand Paul is the VP.
As I said earlier today, tonight’s results really matter very little.
Contrary to what most people are saying, I think the winner tonight was Huntsman, who emerged as the latest anti-Mitt. Unfortunately for him, no one is dropping out and the race is headed to Southern Baptist territory. Huntsman’s dad will probably fund him through at least Nevada, which he will absolutely have to win.
Romney is happy that Gingrich finished so low. And he’s happy that he didn’t knock anyone out of the race.
On the other hand, he hasn’t succeeded in convincing his rivals to go easy on him. South Carolina will be a blood bath.
Paul is probably going to have trouble remaining in second place in South Carolina and Florida, but who really knows with the field so splintered and the other campaigns so negative. Paul really needs to win Nevada to show he can take a state. But he’ll stay in the race until the end, or very close to it.
He can pick up delegates in the early races, but he’ll need to win states later on to get any delegates at all. If he’s matched up one-on-one with Romney, he might be able to win a few states, particularly caucus states in the Mountain West after everyone else has lost interest and figured Romney is the nominee. Remember how Clinton won states all the way to the end even though she was mathematically eliminated?
I don’t see any way that Paul can be denied a speaking slot if he’s the only candidate other than Romney (and Santorum) to have won any states and he has the second-most delegates.
For us to see an actual brokered convention, we need Gingrich to win some states, starting with South Carolina.
If the Paul and Romney campaigns have an understanding, this speaks well for the Romney campaign’s strategic vision. They benefit short-term by having Paul’s presence help to prevent the emergence of a solitary “non-Mitt” candidate in states like SC and FL. They benefit long-term by keeping Paul in the party (with the added carrot/stick of what an independent campaign would do to Rand Paul’s future prospects in the Republican Party).
If Paul and Romney have an understanding (which would not surprise me at all) and it comes out you will be able to hear Arthur Gilroy’s head exploding as far away as Hawaii. Not to mention a million internet trolls will cry out in terror and be suddenly silenced.
… because he’s finishing third?
Interesting.
yes.
There’s Romney and Paul, but Paul isn’t the anti-Mitt because he doesn’t appeal to the conservative mainstream. The anti-Mitt is whoever is showing the strongest other than Paul.
I observe that Ron Paul won 2nd place.
My further observation is that you mentioned both the 1st place and 3rd place finishers, but not Ron Paul.
Hmmmmm…
Wow…you really are going after a media gig, aren’t you? You’re acting just like the big boys.
The truth of the matter? (“Truth.” See my sig below for my take on that word.) Ron Paul has outlasted every “Not-Mitt” candidate so far.
Why? How?
Because he is the only candidate on either side who is telling “the truth.”
Bet on it.
And he’s in it for the long haul.
Watch.
AG
AG, serious question. How is Ron Paul’s 2012 campaign fundamentally different from (or similar to), say, Rev. Jesse Jackson’s 1988 campaign?
Are you kidding?
You tell me.
AG
I haven’t given it much thought, but on the surface at least, there seem to be some similarities:
*a candidate with a long and significant public record as a leader within a key faction of the party’s base;
*a candidate who’s run before and has/is running stronger the second time around;
*a candidate who is unlikely to win the nomination but may surprise the “experts” by winning some states;
*a candidate who the eventual nominee may have to negotiate with over the party platform, speaking slots and rules;
*a candidate with a checkered past and with an ability to appeal to voters not considered to be part of his base.
To some degree,yes. But in racist America, the fact of the matter is that when Jesse Jackson ran pretty much his only real base was the black community whereas Ron Paul…in this still only slightly less racist system as it stands (less plainly and easily perceived as “racist” by most white people, anyway) has available the whole spectrum of races.
You doubt this?
Take a good look.
When did Jesse Jackson have either the numb era or he organization that Ron Paul now commands? I must’ve missed it.
Jesse Jackson had no chance whatsoever of “winning the nomination,” no matter what the experts claimed. Paul? EWatch. Once the other “Not-Romney” candidates are gone, it’s going to be Paul and Romney. And in face-to-face debates, Paul will clean Romney’s (stopped) clock. Watch.
Again…I’m sorry, but give me the comparable numbers. Rid of the little monsters like Cain and Santorum, Paul is very likely to have upwards of 30% of the Ratpub faithful on his side. And better numbers in polls vs. Obama besides. Who will be “negotiating” with whom come come the dog days of August in sweltering Tampa with the “Occupy” movement demonstrating outside of the convention hall and the Tea Party making waves inside?
UH oh!!!
The media has created this “checkered past,” mass appeal. And you have fallen for it.
You mean this “checkered past?”
C’mon…
Wake the fuck up.
You been had.
Again and again and again and again and again…
Ain’tcha getting at least a little tired of it by now?
I am.
And I’m just watching.
Later…
AG
That’s “When did Jesse Jackson have either the numbers or the organization that Ron Paul now commands? I must’ve missed it.”
Although “numb era ” works too…
AG
Thanks for the detailed response. According to the intertubes, 1988 was the year Rev. Jackson won nearly 30% of the delegates to the Democratic convention, on the strength of having won nearly 30% of the total votes cast in the state primaries and caucuses. Jackson won 9 states (including Alaska, Delaware and Michigan), as well as the District of Columbia, outright. In terms of what that says about Jackson’s numbers and organization in 1988, make of it what you will.
(For comparison purposes, the eventual nominee, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, won 30 states, a little over 42% of the total votes cast, and ended up with about 70% of the delegates at the convention. By the way, the whole “may lose to a technocratic Mass. governor about whom the party base is not excited” thing is another possible point of similarity between Paul in 2012 and Jackson in 1988.)
P.S. Point of clarification: By “checkered past” I primarily had in mind that both men had/have a history of being willing to work with/appeal to/recruit “unlikely” and “controversial” allies/supporters in their efforts to advance their core beliefs and interests.
1-30%? Yeah, but…
Jackson was essentially running on his connection with MLK Jr. His campaign success…and future success… was race-limited. At least that’s what the Dems thought and I am pretty sure that they were correct on that idea. They were wrong…weak might be a better word…on damned near everything else, though. So it goes.
Paul on the other hand, is not in themleast limited by any racial, religious, age or cultural demographic. He is only limited by the issues. More and more people are getting his message every day, now that the “Ignore him!!!” tactic didn’t work. And they are liking that message! An entirely different situation than that of Jesse Jackson.
2-Dukakis like Romney? Naaaahhhhh…Dukakis looked like a little CPA.
Romney looks like a President Robot.
Americans like robots. They watch them on reality shows. Sarah Palin was one.
They help us do the vacuuming and have sex and stuff.
Americans do not like CPAs. They make us pay our taxes.
Americans will buy into having a robot for president.
Haven’t they already?
Yup.
Male Model robot.
A good‘un, too.
State of the art.
Bet on it.
AG