Romney Has it in the Bag

Even if Gingrich and Paul remain obstinately opposed to Romney and refuse to drop out, and even if Gingrich carries most of the South, I still see Romney as the nominee. The following is almost a worst case scenario for Romney. It presupposes that Romney will lose to Gingrich in South Carolina and that Paul will succeed in winning some states. Even so, I see Romney having a commanding delegate lead, well in excess of the 50% he needs. So, here’s my prediction of a situation that actually allows for a somewhat extended campaign.

January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus) – Santorum (Bachmann drops out)
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary) – Romney
January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)- Gingrich (Perry drops out)
January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)- Romney (Santorum drops out)
February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)- Paul (Huntsman drops out)
February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)- Romney
February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)- Paul
Minnesota (caucus)- Romney
February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)- Romney
Michigan (primary)- Romney

Winner-Take-All takes over

March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)- Romney
March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)- Paul
Georgia (primary)- Gingrich
Idaho (caucus)- Paul
Massachusetts (primary)- Romney
North Dakota (caucus)- Romney
Ohio (primary)- Romney
Oklahoma (primary)- Gingrich
Tennessee (primary)- Gingrich
Vermont (primary)- Romney
Virginia (primary)- Paul
March 6-10, 2012 Wyoming (caucus)- Paul
March 10, 2012 Kansas (caucus)- Romney
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)- Romney
March 13, 2012 Alabama (primary)- Gingrich
Hawaii (caucus)- Romney
Mississippi (primary)- Gingrich
March 17, 2012 Missouri (caucus) – Romney
March 20, 2012 Illinois (primary)- Romney
March 24, 2012 Louisiana (primary)- Gingrich
April 3, 2012 District of Columbia (primary)- Romney
Maryland (primary)- Romney
Wisconsin (primary)- Romney
Texas (primary)- Romney (Gingrich drops out)
April 24, 2012 Connecticut (primary)- Romney
Delaware (primary)- Romney
New York (primary)- Romney
Pennsylvania (primary)- Romney
Rhode Island (primary)- Romney
May 8, 2012 Indiana (primary)- Romney
North Carolina (primary)- Romney
West Virginia (primary)- Romney
May 15, 2012 Nebraska (primary)- Romney
Oregon (primary)- Romney
May 22, 2012 Arkansas (primary)- Romney
Kentucky (primary)- Romney
June 5, 2012 California (primary)- Romney
Montana (primary)- Romney
New Jersey (primary)- Romney
New Mexico (primary)- Romney
South Dakota (primary)- Romney
June 26, 2012 Utah (primary)- Romney

The only way I see things going worse than this for Romney is if he can’t win Florida. If he loses both South Carolina and Florida, then is defeated in Nevada, we could have a brokered convention. But the chances are really remote.

Again, this isn’t my prediction. It’s likely that Romney will have much smoother sailing than this.

17 Comments

Micheline on January 11, 2012 at 12:30 am

Question, with the way the GOP nominating process is going, do you think that Obama’s chances in winning re-election has diminished even more?

Lodus on January 11, 2012 at 12:42 am

Don’t you think the opposite is more likely?
MassCommons on January 11, 2012 at 6:46 am

My own .02 is that Obama’s #1 “opponent” is the economy. If personal income growth, unemployment and GDP growth flatline (or close to) for the rest of 2012, then Obama will probably lose.

If, on the other hand, the next 9 months resemble the past 4 months economically, Obama will likely be re-elected, perhaps by a wide margin.
- clearskies on January 11, 2012 at 7:21 am
  
  The other variable with a large effect on Obama’s chances is whether or not Ron Paul decides to run as a third party candidate.
  - Micheline on January 11, 2012 at 7:42 am
    
    I doubt that Paul will run as a 3rd party candidate. He’s more eager to attack Newt and Santorum than Romney.

bento on January 11, 2012 at 12:38 am

I don’t have time to count delegates right now, but I think your prediction depends crucially on Gingrich dropping out once he has clearly lost, rather than pushing on to punish Romney and the party itself (Gingrich’s loss in Iowa had a lot to do with party bigwigs like Rove dissing him hard, which he will view, with some justification, as ingratitude for what he did for the party by making Congress competitive for them) Assume Gingrich and Paul soldier on to push a brokered convention. Adelman and possibly others keep bankrolling Gingrich to get an ultra-hardline stance on Israel in the platform and make Romney do it, and possibly other causes. Under your assumptions, Gingrich could also get North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and South Dakota. Paul could get Montana. Not sure that’s a Romney majority.

MassCommons on January 11, 2012 at 6:42 am

Actually, Booman’s scenario assumes Gingrich not dropping out once he has clearly lost. (“Even if Gingrich and Paul remain obstinately opposed to Romney and refuse to drop out, and even if Gingrich carries most of the South, I still see Romney as the nominee.”) He does, admittedly, have Gingrich dropping out after mid-April.

But even if Gingrich and Paul win all the states envisioned in your scenario, that still means Romney will have won 30 states—the majority of them with winner-take-all (or something close to that) rules for apportioning delegates. And Romney will have won most, if not all, of the big states. (CA, TX, NY, FL in the first tier; IL, MI, OH, PA in the second tier.)

bento on January 11, 2012 at 1:52 am

Also, how did Gingrich sweep the South without getting Texas? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think he will. That is the one place Perry will make a difference, and Perry will support Romney because the party bigwigs will make clear that he had better. But this does seem contrary to your stated assumptions.

MassCommons on January 11, 2012 at 6:43 am

And even if you give Texas to Gingrich, Romney still has CA, FL, NY, IL, MI, OH, PA. Yes?

baudelairien on January 11, 2012 at 6:22 am

Don’t the winner-take-all contests start April 3? (Excepting SC and FL)

Steve M. on January 11, 2012 at 7:19 am

My prediction: Romney wins every state from here on. Seriously. Republicans have fallen in line.

Brendan Skwire on January 11, 2012 at 9:39 am

what steven m said.

this was utterly predictable.

god almighty, politics can be so fuckin’ boring when the game is rigged.
- Brendan Skwire on January 11, 2012 at 9:47 am
  
  it’s really bitterly funny to see the NYT call this “a triumph of re-branding”.
  
  I think that Taibbi may be on to something in his “meaningless sideshow in iowa” piece.
  
  “The campaign is still a gigantic ritual and it will still be attended by all the usual pomp and spectacle, but it’s empty. In fact, because it’s really a contest between 1%-approved candidates, it’s worse than empty – it’s obnoxious.
  
  It was always annoying when these two parties and the slavish media that follows their champions around for 18 months pretended that this was a colossal clash of opposites. But now, with the economy in the shape that it’s in thanks in large part to the people financing these elections, that pretense is more than annoying, it’s offensive.
  
  And I imagine that the more they try to play up the drama of these familiar-but-empty campaign rituals, the more irritating to the public it will all become. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if, before the season is out, the campaign itself will become a hated symbol of the 1%
  
  It’s not like I’m not gonna vote… but there’s a damn good reason I stopped blogging.

TarheelDem on January 11, 2012 at 9:14 am

I think this is pretty close to it, BooMan. But if Nikki Haley can drag Romney over the line in South Carolina (not the highest probability), Romney gets anointed the winner sooner.

mainsailset on January 11, 2012 at 10:04 am

So the next question will be whether Paul decides to become Romney’s Ross Perrot or kingmaker. He’s garnered a large enough following now so that the msm will have to stop dismissing him out of hand. His followers are just too convinced of Paul’s platform to ever fall in line for Romney.

Dr Squid on January 11, 2012 at 10:56 pm

In just about any scenario, the Mormon states will go for the Mormon candidate, i.e. Idaho and Nevada go to Mittens. Maybe Paul gets Montana and Wyoming.

Yee. Haw.

Paul might have a chance in some small too-cool-for-school states like Rhode Island and Maine. But Mittens is about as likely to be beaten in Nevada as he is in Utah.

Dr Squid on January 11, 2012 at 11:02 pm

Missouri’s caucus is St. Patty’s Day? There are going to be some sloppy drunks showing up to caucus, especially in St. Louis and Rolla, where that’s a HUGE party day. In Rolla, it is THE party day for university students.

That could be fun to watch.

Micheline on January 11, 2012 at 12:30 am

Question, with the way the GOP nominating process is going, do you think that Obama’s chances in winning re-election has diminished even more?
- Lodus on January 11, 2012 at 12:42 am
  
  Don’t you think the opposite is more likely?
- MassCommons on January 11, 2012 at 6:46 am
  
  My own .02 is that Obama’s #1 “opponent” is the economy. If personal income growth, unemployment and GDP growth flatline (or close to) for the rest of 2012, then Obama will probably lose.
  
  If, on the other hand, the next 9 months resemble the past 4 months economically, Obama will likely be re-elected, perhaps by a wide margin.
  - clearskies on January 11, 2012 at 7:21 am
    
    The other variable with a large effect on Obama’s chances is whether or not Ron Paul decides to run as a third party candidate.
    - Micheline on January 11, 2012 at 7:42 am
      
      I doubt that Paul will run as a 3rd party candidate. He’s more eager to attack Newt and Santorum than Romney.
bento on January 11, 2012 at 12:38 am

I don’t have time to count delegates right now, but I think your prediction depends crucially on Gingrich dropping out once he has clearly lost, rather than pushing on to punish Romney and the party itself (Gingrich’s loss in Iowa had a lot to do with party bigwigs like Rove dissing him hard, which he will view, with some justification, as ingratitude for what he did for the party by making Congress competitive for them) Assume Gingrich and Paul soldier on to push a brokered convention. Adelman and possibly others keep bankrolling Gingrich to get an ultra-hardline stance on Israel in the platform and make Romney do it, and possibly other causes. Under your assumptions, Gingrich could also get North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and South Dakota. Paul could get Montana. Not sure that’s a Romney majority.
- MassCommons on January 11, 2012 at 6:42 am
  
  Actually, Booman’s scenario assumes Gingrich not dropping out once he has clearly lost. (“Even if Gingrich and Paul remain obstinately opposed to Romney and refuse to drop out, and even if Gingrich carries most of the South, I still see Romney as the nominee.”) He does, admittedly, have Gingrich dropping out after mid-April.
  
  But even if Gingrich and Paul win all the states envisioned in your scenario, that still means Romney will have won 30 states—the majority of them with winner-take-all (or something close to that) rules for apportioning delegates. And Romney will have won most, if not all, of the big states. (CA, TX, NY, FL in the first tier; IL, MI, OH, PA in the second tier.)
bento on January 11, 2012 at 1:52 am

Also, how did Gingrich sweep the South without getting Texas? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think he will. That is the one place Perry will make a difference, and Perry will support Romney because the party bigwigs will make clear that he had better. But this does seem contrary to your stated assumptions.
- MassCommons on January 11, 2012 at 6:43 am
  
  And even if you give Texas to Gingrich, Romney still has CA, FL, NY, IL, MI, OH, PA. Yes?
baudelairien on January 11, 2012 at 6:22 am

Don’t the winner-take-all contests start April 3? (Excepting SC and FL)
Steve M. on January 11, 2012 at 7:19 am

My prediction: Romney wins every state from here on. Seriously. Republicans have fallen in line.
- Brendan Skwire on January 11, 2012 at 9:39 am
  
  what steven m said.
  
  this was utterly predictable.
  
  god almighty, politics can be so fuckin’ boring when the game is rigged.
  - Brendan Skwire on January 11, 2012 at 9:47 am
    
    it’s really bitterly funny to see the NYT call this “a triumph of re-branding”.
    
    I think that Taibbi may be on to something in his “meaningless sideshow in iowa” piece.
    
    “The campaign is still a gigantic ritual and it will still be attended by all the usual pomp and spectacle, but it’s empty. In fact, because it’s really a contest between 1%-approved candidates, it’s worse than empty – it’s obnoxious.
    
    It was always annoying when these two parties and the slavish media that follows their champions around for 18 months pretended that this was a colossal clash of opposites. But now, with the economy in the shape that it’s in thanks in large part to the people financing these elections, that pretense is more than annoying, it’s offensive.
    
    And I imagine that the more they try to play up the drama of these familiar-but-empty campaign rituals, the more irritating to the public it will all become. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if, before the season is out, the campaign itself will become a hated symbol of the 1%
    
    It’s not like I’m not gonna vote… but there’s a damn good reason I stopped blogging.
TarheelDem on January 11, 2012 at 9:14 am

I think this is pretty close to it, BooMan. But if Nikki Haley can drag Romney over the line in South Carolina (not the highest probability), Romney gets anointed the winner sooner.
mainsailset on January 11, 2012 at 10:04 am

So the next question will be whether Paul decides to become Romney’s Ross Perrot or kingmaker. He’s garnered a large enough following now so that the msm will have to stop dismissing him out of hand. His followers are just too convinced of Paul’s platform to ever fall in line for Romney.
Dr Squid on January 11, 2012 at 10:56 pm

In just about any scenario, the Mormon states will go for the Mormon candidate, i.e. Idaho and Nevada go to Mittens. Maybe Paul gets Montana and Wyoming.

Yee. Haw.

Paul might have a chance in some small too-cool-for-school states like Rhode Island and Maine. But Mittens is about as likely to be beaten in Nevada as he is in Utah.
Dr Squid on January 11, 2012 at 11:02 pm

Missouri’s caucus is St. Patty’s Day? There are going to be some sloppy drunks showing up to caucus, especially in St. Louis and Rolla, where that’s a HUGE party day. In Rolla, it is THE party day for university students.

That could be fun to watch.

Romney Has it in the Bag

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