Even if Gingrich and Paul remain obstinately opposed to Romney and refuse to drop out, and even if Gingrich carries most of the South, I still see Romney as the nominee. The following is almost a worst case scenario for Romney. It presupposes that Romney will lose to Gingrich in South Carolina and that Paul will succeed in winning some states. Even so, I see Romney having a commanding delegate lead, well in excess of the 50% he needs. So, here’s my prediction of a situation that actually allows for a somewhat extended campaign.
January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus) – Santorum (Bachmann drops out)
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary) – Romney
January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)- Gingrich (Perry drops out)
January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)- Romney (Santorum drops out)
February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)- Paul (Huntsman drops out)
February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)- Romney
February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)- Paul
Minnesota (caucus)- Romney
February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)- Romney
Michigan (primary)- Romney
Winner-Take-All takes over
March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)- Romney
March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)- Paul
Georgia (primary)- Gingrich
Idaho (caucus)- Paul
Massachusetts (primary)- Romney
North Dakota (caucus)- Romney
Ohio (primary)- Romney
Oklahoma (primary)- Gingrich
Tennessee (primary)- Gingrich
Vermont (primary)- Romney
Virginia (primary)- Paul
March 6-10, 2012 Wyoming (caucus)- Paul
March 10, 2012 Kansas (caucus)- Romney
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)- Romney
March 13, 2012 Alabama (primary)- Gingrich
Hawaii (caucus)- Romney
Mississippi (primary)- Gingrich
March 17, 2012 Missouri (caucus) – Romney
March 20, 2012 Illinois (primary)- Romney
March 24, 2012 Louisiana (primary)- Gingrich
April 3, 2012 District of Columbia (primary)- Romney
Maryland (primary)- Romney
Wisconsin (primary)- Romney
Texas (primary)- Romney (Gingrich drops out)
April 24, 2012 Connecticut (primary)- Romney
Delaware (primary)- Romney
New York (primary)- Romney
Pennsylvania (primary)- Romney
Rhode Island (primary)- Romney
May 8, 2012 Indiana (primary)- Romney
North Carolina (primary)- Romney
West Virginia (primary)- Romney
May 15, 2012 Nebraska (primary)- Romney
Oregon (primary)- Romney
May 22, 2012 Arkansas (primary)- Romney
Kentucky (primary)- Romney
June 5, 2012 California (primary)- Romney
Montana (primary)- Romney
New Jersey (primary)- Romney
New Mexico (primary)- Romney
South Dakota (primary)- Romney
June 26, 2012 Utah (primary)- Romney
The only way I see things going worse than this for Romney is if he can’t win Florida. If he loses both South Carolina and Florida, then is defeated in Nevada, we could have a brokered convention. But the chances are really remote.
Again, this isn’t my prediction. It’s likely that Romney will have much smoother sailing than this.
