Taking a look at the Republican primary schedule and considering the polling out of South Carolina is indicating that Newt Gingrich will win there, I don’t think Romney can lock up the nomination before February 28th at the earliest. Florida votes on Tuesday, but a loss there won’t be enough to discourage Newt Gingrich and his gambling pal Sheldon Adelson. Then the next matchup will be the Nevada caucuses (Feb. 4), which should be interesting because Ron Paul is strong out West but Mormons make up a big portion of the Republican electorate in the Silver State. In general, Ron Paul’s best chances for victories will be in caucus states, Nevada is his first real chance to break into the winner’s column. Caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota (plus a non-binding beauty show in Missouri) will go down on Tuesday, February 7th. I’d say that if Ron Paul doesn’t win in both Nevada and Colorado, his campaign will be effectively dead regardless of what he does the rest of the way. February 7th would be the earliest I can see him dropping out.
I guess the Maine caucuses will wrap up on Saturday February 11th. I have no idea whether that will be a win for Romney or Paul, but New England isn’t very friendly to either Gingrich or Santorum.
No contests will be held after the Maine caucuses until February 28th, when the Arizona and Michigan primaries are scheduled. This will feature Romney trying to win the state his dad once governed while Ron Paul tries to prove he’s the proper heir to Barry Goldwater in Arizona. If Romney can sweep these two contests, I think he can knock Gingrich and Santorum out of the race.
Then comes Super Tuesday:
Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions
Colorado Democratic caucuses
Georgia
Idaho Republican caucuses
Massachusetts
North Dakota Republican caucuses
Ohio
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Vermont
Virginia
Remember that only Romney and Paul are on the Virginia ballot. If Gingrich and/or Santorum are still running, their supporters will probably vote for Paul, possibly handing him a substantial victory.
So, what do you think is going to happen?
