Taking a look at the Republican primary schedule and considering the polling out of South Carolina is indicating that Newt Gingrich will win there, I don’t think Romney can lock up the nomination before February 28th at the earliest. Florida votes on Tuesday, but a loss there won’t be enough to discourage Newt Gingrich and his gambling pal Sheldon Adelson. Then the next matchup will be the Nevada caucuses (Feb. 4), which should be interesting because Ron Paul is strong out West but Mormons make up a big portion of the Republican electorate in the Silver State. In general, Ron Paul’s best chances for victories will be in caucus states, Nevada is his first real chance to break into the winner’s column. Caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota (plus a non-binding beauty show in Missouri) will go down on Tuesday, February 7th. I’d say that if Ron Paul doesn’t win in both Nevada and Colorado, his campaign will be effectively dead regardless of what he does the rest of the way. February 7th would be the earliest I can see him dropping out.
I guess the Maine caucuses will wrap up on Saturday February 11th. I have no idea whether that will be a win for Romney or Paul, but New England isn’t very friendly to either Gingrich or Santorum.
No contests will be held after the Maine caucuses until February 28th, when the Arizona and Michigan primaries are scheduled. This will feature Romney trying to win the state his dad once governed while Ron Paul tries to prove he’s the proper heir to Barry Goldwater in Arizona. If Romney can sweep these two contests, I think he can knock Gingrich and Santorum out of the race.
Then comes Super Tuesday:
Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions
Colorado Democratic caucuses
Georgia
Idaho Republican caucuses
Massachusetts
North Dakota Republican caucuses
Ohio
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Vermont
Virginia
Remember that only Romney and Paul are on the Virginia ballot. If Gingrich and/or Santorum are still running, their supporters will probably vote for Paul, possibly handing him a substantial victory.
So, what do you think is going to happen?
The question for me is how Romney will react to this unexpected extension of the nomination calendar. The longer Newt and Adelson string this out, the longer it takes for Romney to pivot to the general, the more time he has to make stupid Uncle Moneybags gaffes, the more he has to pander to the crazy Right base, etc. I still haven’t read a convincing explanation of Newt’s thinking and why he’s still doing this. Other than selling books and a personal vendetta against Romney, neither of which seems like quite enough. Anyway, he has my deepest thanks.
I think Gingrich thinks he has a shot at victory if Santorum drops out soon and he can pick up a couple more sugar daddies for his SuperPAC. It seems like Newt would have to be a delusional megalomaniac to think he has a real chance of being the Republican nominee… which, you know, he really is.
I have to wonder, though, about the SuperPAC donor angle. I wouldn’t be surprised if losing Wynn was the last nail in Perry’s coffin.
Newt’s a megalomanic of the highest order, sure, but I also feel like he’s smart enough to realize he’s not going to get the nom. But maybe not. Robert Caro says that even the savviest Presidential candidates can lose their political reason when they start to get near the big prize, as Lyndon Johnson did in 1948, or Hillary after Super Tuesday for that matter.
Then next matchup with be the Nevada caucuses ( Feb. 4), which should be interesting because Ron Paul is strong out West but Mormons make up a big portion of the Republican electorate in the Silver State.
And respect for the sanctity of marriage is not exactly a top priority in the state.
I think Super PACS have impacted primaries more than GE’s, or at least in theory. It’s turned the entire process upside down. Who cares how well you do in the early states if you have a big backer?
why wouldn’t Maine be friendly to Newt?
they chose that crazy Tea Bagger to be their Governor. and this is a GOP Caucus.
Because Mainers don’t like Southerners any more than South Carolinians like Yankees.
(That’s gross over-generalization on my part…but that’s not to say I’m wrong.)
I’m anxious to see the Florida debates. There are Latinos from Mexico, Central America, South America, Cuba, all those other island nations and US territories. Mitt is going to have to tell them his immigration policy.
I enjoy politics as spectator sport as much as the next person, and it’s been a very entertaining few days. (Thank-you, South Carolina Republicans.)
Having said that, it’s still hard for me to see how Romney loses, given his money, his organization, and the degree to which Gingrich and Paul are unacceptable to key constituencies within the party.
With the caveat that things may look entirely different tomorrow night, here is my take.
Ron Paul’s best chance for a win before Super Tuesday will be Washington state on March 3. He got 22% of the vote in ’08. McCain, who won it, got 25. IIRC, McCain and Huckabee were the only others still in the race at that time.
I live in Nevada. In ’08, Mitt won with 51% and Paul came in a distant second with 14%. I expect a much better result this time, perhaps double his ’08 showing but still not enough to beat Romney here. Colorado is likely the same as Nevada. Romney got 60% of the vote there last time.
Minnesota is a possible Paul win. He got 16% vs Romney 41%, but I suspect he will do a lot better this time.
For tomorrow, if Paul manages to get 20% of the vote, he is sitting pretty to continue, even if that’s 3rd place. He got 3.6% in SC last time so a 5 fold increase in support perhaps the most hawkish state in the country would be very telling, IMHO.
Also, if it continues to be a Newt vs Mitt slug-fest for a while, Paul starts to look better and better with time. He also can be a king maker in the unlikely event this lasts till the convention, which is not implausible. I don’t think Mitt can stomach Newt as his VP.
Here are two biggies coming down the track.
(1) Romney is reported to have a dozen accounts in a Cayman Islands Bank just for himself. Given the co-mingling of corporate, organized crime, and clandestine organization money that these banks handle, exactly what is Romney using these accounts for? And why more than one?
(2) Eric Holder and Lanny Breuer left a law firm to come into the Obama administration. Presumably they will go back to that law firm after their “public service”. The law firm in question, Covington & Burling, issued the opinion letter that said that MERS was a valid way to transfer mortgages. The slicing and dicing of mortgages through MERS is one of the reasons that the mortgage crisis could not be easily unwound. The political appearance is that Holder has not moved on prosecuting bankers because his long-term interest in Covington & Burling is in conflict with his responsibilities as Attorney General. That could become a big issue if not settled soon through their recusal and handing off the prosecution to someone known to be a fair and tough prosecutor.
Both of these go to issue of Wall Street unaccountability and corruption of government.
Given the intense pressure on Citizens United anonymous contributions and the vast sums being raised for the campaigns, the public might just pay attention and not be distracted by news of either or both of these items.
And that could play out in the primaries or in the general election. Especially against the background of a still struggling economy an stagnant housing market.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul come into the final turn. They are 1-2-3 (not necessarily in that exact order) as they approach Super Tuesday. They all have their baggages. Romney’s a rich, conniving dickhead; Gingrich is a sociopath in lobbyist’s clothing and Paul is…well, Paul is different (to say the least) and in lockstep Omertica that’s enough right there to disqualify someone from popular success. One of them breaks a leg…figuratively, of course…in the final turn. Paul gets too…cranky…with the stupormedia; Gingrich is outed as a serial rodent rapist or worse and Romney’s haircut falls off revealing the corporate mechanisms busily at work underneath his candidacy…and then there are two.
And that is when the real law comes into effect. The law of “accident.” The law of “WHAT WILL WORK BEST FOR THE SURVIVAL OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE LIFE OF LIFE?”
And then…all bets are off.
My bet(s)?
Either Paul somehow wins the RatPub nomination and/or starts a third party candidacy and proceeds to beat his opponents’ “Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire” trousers off or Romney/Obama results in a narrow Obama win and 4 more years of legislative gridlock. (If we even last 4 years as a functioning societal system, of course.)
Why do you ask?
AG
AG:
If Romney somehow does stumble badly enough (e.g., dead girl/live boy) to make it a two-person race between Paul and Gingrich, do you think the majority of Repub voters as well as the powers that be would get behind Paul or Gingrich? I think they’d choose Gingrich (holding their nose all the way).
If Gingrich bows out (much more likely), and it’s Romney v. Paul, do you really think there are enough non-war mongers in the Republican party to power Paul to more delegates? I don’t.
If not, how do you think he can possibly win the RatPub nomination (because I think it’s unlikely that Romney and Gingrich would be splitting the same pool of voters [a la Santorum & Gingrich])? I suppose if Gingrich stayed in it to the bitter end, but that seems unlikely doesn’t it?
A third-party Paul candidacy seems more likely to me, but likeliest of all (again, to me) seems to be Paul being able to force the party platform to incorporate some of his ideas and to get some of his approved people appointed to positions of power.
How do you see it differently, AG?
You could be right.
Time will tell.
Gingrich? The UniParty wants none of him, either. He is uncontrollable and probably on some serious psychotropic medications as well. As is Romney, more than likely, but Romney’s look more like mild downers/steadiers, not the anti-psychotic variety. Gingrich will be gone…if of course there is a God of some kind who is not hell-bent on nuclear war…before the convention. The media will eventually take him down.
Romney vs. Paul? Head to head? It could get interesting. We’ll see, won’t we.
AG