One question going into the Republican presidential nominating contests was: how high is Ron Paul’s ceiling? Paul had run before; he had a nationwide base of dedicated supporters and a solid fundraising organization. He almost certainly wouldn’t win the nomination (there aren’t that many libertarians in the Republican party), but would he be able to demonstrate enough support, and win enough delegates to play a major role at the party’s convention—perhaps winning changes in the platform, or in the party’s rules for future nominations?
With most of the Nevada caucuses reporting, the answer is: not very high. When all the votes are counted and delegates allotted, Paul looks to be somewhere under 20%—just a marginal improvement on the 14% he won in 2008.
In 1988 Rev. Jesse Jackson, running his second campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, won about 30% of the votes cast, and of the delegates to the Democrats’ national convention. That gave him enough power to wrestle a primetime speech from the Dukakis campaign and, more importantly, changes in the party’s rules and platform (changes that Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign took advantage of to win the nomination).
But yesterday’s results in Nevada show that Ron Paul is no Jesse Jackson. He’s not going to get anywhere near 1/3 of the Republican votes and—given the winner-take-all rules that apply to virtually all contests after April 1—he’s not going to get anywhere near Jackson’s delegate count.
Paul and his supporters may complain—as some already have—that he’s not being treated fairly by the “mainstream media” or by the “party establishment”. Well, of course he’s not. First of all, fair treatment in politics isn’t given. It’s taken. It’s earned, by demonstrating one’s power. Paul hasn’t done that yet; and if he can’t do it in a western caucus state like Nevada, then it’s hard to see where and when he will do it.
Second, if the Paulites (Paulians? Paulitarians? Paulistas?) think they’re being treated badly, they should take a look back at what was being written and said about Jesse Jackson in 1988. By comparison, they’ve got no complaints.
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/
