Granted that living in Michigan for several years gave me a certain forecasting advantage, but I told you before the polls came out that Rick Santorum would be the frontrunner there. There is really nothing about Mitt Romney that makes him a preferable choice for the Michigan voter. The largely-Catholic Reagan Democrats in the Detroit suburbs may see Rick Santorum as a bit too radical, but he’s a better fit in a Republican primary than a Mormon from Massachusetts. In the western part of the state, the GOP electorate is dominated by socially-conservative Calvinists who are more aligned with Santorum on anti-choice issues than a man who has flip-flopped on them. Up north, the hunting culture is extremely strong among people of all political persuasions, and they can’t relate to a guy who says he hunts small varmints. Add to all this that Mitt Romney told the auto industry to drop dead at the time of their greatest need. My conclusion is that Romney should seek his fortune in Arizona where he doesn’t have all these disadvantages.
Romney will try to drive Santorum’s negatives up with political advertising, but Santorum is starting off with much higher favorability numbers. It would probably be wiser for Romney to air Reaganesque sunny, optimistic ads featuring himself. Yet, the more people see of Romney the less they like him, so that might not work, either.
I said last Friday that I have finally begun to believe that Romney might lost the nomination to Santorum. My inability to figure out a way for Romney to win his home state is really what forced me to begin to question Romney’s overall chances.
He’s in real trouble.
