Granted that living in Michigan for several years gave me a certain forecasting advantage, but I told you before the polls came out that Rick Santorum would be the frontrunner there. There is really nothing about Mitt Romney that makes him a preferable choice for the Michigan voter. The largely-Catholic Reagan Democrats in the Detroit suburbs may see Rick Santorum as a bit too radical, but he’s a better fit in a Republican primary than a Mormon from Massachusetts. In the western part of the state, the GOP electorate is dominated by socially-conservative Calvinists who are more aligned with Santorum on anti-choice issues than a man who has flip-flopped on them. Up north, the hunting culture is extremely strong among people of all political persuasions, and they can’t relate to a guy who says he hunts small varmints. Add to all this that Mitt Romney told the auto industry to drop dead at the time of their greatest need. My conclusion is that Romney should seek his fortune in Arizona where he doesn’t have all these disadvantages.
Romney will try to drive Santorum’s negatives up with political advertising, but Santorum is starting off with much higher favorability numbers. It would probably be wiser for Romney to air Reaganesque sunny, optimistic ads featuring himself. Yet, the more people see of Romney the less they like him, so that might not work, either.
I said last Friday that I have finally begun to believe that Romney might lost the nomination to Santorum. My inability to figure out a way for Romney to win his home state is really what forced me to begin to question Romney’s overall chances.
He’s in real trouble.
Forget the “home state” thing. None of Mitt’s public, political, or business life has taken place in Michigan. He has about as much to do with Michigan as George Bush had to do with Connecticut.
Michigan is just another state in the region of the country where Santorum has the advantage over Romney. Romney is the northeast regional candidate, Gingrich the south, and Santorum the midwest.
So, I don’t see Romney’s weak showing there as particularly indicative of being in real trouble, in the sense of the race slipping away. Losing Massachusetts or Utah would be like a home-state loss, not Michigan.
I agree. Michigan is Romney’s home state about as much as Connecticut was Dubya’s. Maybe a bit more because Romney’s dad was the gov, but that was a hell of a long time ago.
Romney can’t win the nomination by relying on New England. He has to do well in the Midwest.
But does “do well” mean he has to win in the Midwest primaries? The tone of your post implies that he does have to win. I’m not so sure. I think what he has to do is merely to keep Santorum’s margins of victory (in Michigan for example, assuming Santorum wins) close. No more blowout Santorum wins like we saw last week. Romney keeps it tight in Santorum’s strongholds, wins solidly in the states more favorable to Romney (e.g. Washington, Idaho, Mass, etc.) and then grinds down Santo over the long haul with his money and endorsement advantages.
Santorum could win but it’s still quite a longshot. I think observers are excited about the Santo surge and are now really underestimating Romney’s chances of victory.
Santorum is now competitive with Romney in a big winner takes all state like California where the nomination will probably be decided…
That’s before Romney starts pouring boatloads of cash into my homestate, though. And CA has some of the most expensive media costs in the country, so Romney’s cash advantage will really matter here.
But it appears that the Talibangelicals(those that didn’t endorse Ricky back in Texas a few weeks ago) are now coming around to The Frothy One. That cancels out a lot of Mitt’s money
.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."These are what one might call “the base”…
…and these are most certainly not.
Romney can’t win the nomination by relying on New England. He has to do well in the Midwest.
Not just New England; the northeast, including New York, New Jersey, Mayland, and DC.
But he doesn’t have to do well in the midwest. He could put together the northeast with some mountain-west and west coast states to get the nomination.
It really will come down to how the west splits between Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul (for whom the west is his strongest region).
(It’s too bad Newt didn’t make the ballot in Virginia; it would have been interesting to see the northeastern and southern candidates fight it out there in 2012.
Unfortunately, the media has played up his Michigan roots – after all his dad was governor there – so losing his “home state” will reverberate further than it probably should.
Booman Tribune ~ Comments ~ Romney is in Trouble in Michigan
The poll you link to is a national one showing Romney and Santorum more or less level. The more relevant Michican poll is here
Perhaps some of those in Michigan took note of Romney’s opposition to the saving of GM.
I wonder about this.
How do Michigan Republicans line up with their national brethren on the auto bailout?
Michigan GOPers in Congress at the time all voted for the bailout. Otherwise they were all certainly dead meat. So they obviously didn’t feel the same way about the bailout that Mittens did. And it’s why I never thought Mittens was a sure thing, especially in Michigan(provided someone with some money could challenge him). Mittens telling Michigan, and by extension the whole Midwest, to go Cheney itself was just as dumb as Snarlin’ Arlen’s gaffe that cost him the Democratic primary here 2 years ago.
Michigan GOPers in Congress at the time all voted for the bailout. Otherwise they were all certainly dead meat.
But that doesn’t tell us anything about Michigan Republican voters. Incumbent GOPers don’t want to get swept out of office by overwhelming opposition from Democrats and independents, either.
True, but what does it tell you when all Michigan GOPer Representatives at the time voted for the bailout. Even wingnuts like Fred Upton and Thaddeus McCotter voted for it. I doubt every UAW member is a Democrat.
Holy crap, Calvin! Look at this!
http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/169406865300668416
62% of Michigan Republicans, in a poll last weekend, opposed the auto bailout.
the things that would make Little Ricky repellant to a General Election audience endear him to the nuts of the GOP.
being kneedeep in exploiting foreign non-white poor people?
you and me? – we think it’s outrageous.
the GOP – good for Little Ricky!
How is he going to drive up Santorum’s negatives? Are people going to be pissed he voted to raise the debt ceiling under Bush? He can attack from the left but what good does THAT do him? Apparently the numbers are way closer in Michigan if you discount Dems, but Dems and Indies will go to the open primary.
Sunny optimism seems his best bet, but it runs counter to his Obama-economy thing. Here’s the thing though, it would be best if Romney was the one who drew down Santorum’s negatives instead of Obama.
Anyone want to be the Obama team would be totally blindsided (and display their typical blinded sided behavior for a while) if Santorum was winning?