I said last night that we might top out at 38 states, but 35 states will do. The GOP is starting to feel it. And this must have them quaking in their boots.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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I read about Project Narwhal this morning. Wow, I wonder how effective it will be, and what the details are. If this is all we know while it’s secret, what’s it actually going to be like? Unless they’re bluffing and this is it.
And this is just one little piece of what is happening. We volunteers are getting trainings every week it seems on new tools and skills development.
It is incredible. And here is the thing. They are training/helping/developing citizen organizers who do and will go on to shape much more than this election. I have never seen such investment in teaching ordinary folks how to be organizers.
38 states? 35? Please, I think you’ve gone a little manic. I know I’m chronically at the other extreme, but seriously — here’s a list of states the Republicans will win even if they nominate Christine O’Donnell and Carl Palladino:
Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Alaska. That’s seventeen states I would absolutely bet you a thousand dollars the ‘pubs will win no matter how busted the GOP nominating process gets.
Yes, it could be a good year, but there is zero chance it’s going to be that good. Thirty years of Reagan/Limbaugh/Fox/Koch propaganda can’t vanish from the bloodstream overnight. Just can’t happen.
Agreed on all except for Montana. Although Obama’s medical marijuana crackdown isn’t helping in a more libertarian state, which isn’t showing any signs of letting up. So maybe Montana won’t be competitive; if it’s not, this will be the reason why.
So maybe Montana won’t be competitive; if it’s not, this will be the reason why.
Montana has voted Republican in the last four elections in a row, and in 9 of the last 10 elections. It voted for Gerald Ford, Bob Dole, and John McCain, when the country as a whole went strongly for the Democrats.
If Montana continues to vote in a manner consistent with its well-established voting history, it will not be because of some issue that cropped up in 2011.
We were making steady gains there, and we lost it by 2% in 2008. If those gains are reversed, I will lay it at the feet of that issue; an issue that Montana holds in high regard, especially when it’s being linked to gun rights (another issue high on their list). Are there significant demographic changes that can be blamed like in Indiana? Not that I know of.
If those gains are reversed, I will lay it at the feet of that issue; an issue that Montana holds in high regard
There’s a difference between the popularity of a position on an issue, and whether it’s something people vote on. How many elections can you name in Montana in which medicinal marijuana played a prominent role?
in 1980, you would have bet $1000 that Carter would win Massachusetts.
and you would have lost.
Jimmy Carter was 20 times the politician that Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are.
The political environment in 1980 was twenty times more sensible and stable than it is today, too. You have the media comparison. You have the superPAC money. You have over 30 states doing everything they can to depress the Democratic vote. You have teaparty types who will vote essentially out of spite, even if they realize deep down that they’re backing the wrong horse. You have black box voting and the most corrupt people in charge of the process on a national level that we’ve seen going back I don’t know how far, but prior to 1980 at least. You have the culture war ramped up to Carrie Nation levels.
I understand Barack Obama is an extraordinarily gifted campaigner and politician, but he’s only one man, and the Democratic party is facing obstacles at the state level that they frankly seem poorly prepared to handle. I wouldn’t be counting any chickens just yet.
Obama Administration Wouldn’t Defend Blocking Military Benefits From Same-Sex Couples
And Christie vetoed the same sex marriage act in NJ.
The question is can the NJ House override?
yep. if people can’t tell which party is for equal rights, then these stories sure will illustrate it.
Sorry, but I’m not buying the self-congratulatory stuff around Narwhal. For starters, if we’re talking about it, it’s not that secret, and the R’s likely knew about it months ago. More to the point, this sort of data integration is going on in all sorts of campaigns, businesses and nonprofits as software gets more sophisticated and adaptable. The software we used in the city council campaign I worked on last year did most of what they’re talking about.
The R’s would be idiots (insert punchline) not to be working on something very similar. They likely aren’t as far along as the Obama folks, given how state-of-the-art Obama’s operation was in 2008, but I doubt the advantage is as significant as a lot of people are saying it is today.
I’ve been wondering what kind of access Google will offer with their new tracking starting Mar 1
that the Republican Party is suicidal.
Focused messaging is still messaging. What folks want and what would really motivate them is a politician who honestly listened to what they had to say instead of focus-grouping them.
if it’s top secret, why is Sasha Issenberg reporting on it in Slate?
Shameless namedropping: back in 1999 or 2000, my old band was interviewed by Sasha. he was just out of college. Nice guy.
Because the Obama campaign sent him the story? Because a political consultant who specifies these sorts of systems has loose lips?
I was surprised because I thought the DNC did this for the whole party back in 2006.
but then, by definition, it’s not top secret. or a secret of any kind, for that matter.
Romney-Santorum!
Almost as good as Gingrich-Anyone.
Our press corpse will have a frenzy with Romney’s tax returns. Santorum’s papal ruminations will speak for themselves.
If only Israel can hold back from bombing Iran, and Germany can hold the Euro together through November.