It seems like everyone is trying to create drama. Here’s Matt Dowd, responding to a query from George Stephanopoulos: “What happens if Rick Santorum wins Michigan tonight?”
“If Rick Santorum wins tonight it’s the equivalent of a 9.0 on a Richter scale. I mean it is going to shake Washington, it’s going to shake Republican establishment it’s just going to shake things to their very core,” Dowd told me. “And I think what you’re going to see are the conversations that have been going on behind quiet doors saying we need another candidate in this race.”
I think this is a bit of hyperbole. At the same time, I don’t think it’s wrong exactly. Let me explain. As things look right now, Romney is going to win in Arizona tonight, probably quite comfortably. And he’s either going to win narrowly or lose narrowly in Michigan, which will mean very little either way in terms of delegates awarded. Whether Romney nets a dozen delegates or loses a dozen, it can’t possibly matter much in determining the outcome of the overall race. Except, perhaps, if the outcome of tonight’s elections significantly changes people’s perceptions. But, is that likely to happen?
Let’s say that Romney wins in Michigan by a narrow margin. Will that change his position in the polls in Super Tuesday states? After all, Romney is polling in second place in Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, and in third place in Georgia. Does anyone seriously think that narrowly winning in Michigan will erase those deficits? And, consider that Romney will win on Super Tuesday in Virginia (where he only faces Ron Paul on the ballot), his home state of Massachusetts, and Vermont. There will also be a handful of delegates parceled out that day in Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, and North Dakota. Will how those races turn out hinge on tonight’s results? And will those results really mean anything compared to the big prizes like Ohio and Georgia, Virginia and Massachusetts?
I think the truth is that regardless of what happens tonight, Romney is going to win a lot and lose a lot on Super Tuesday. And that means that he will have proven that he can’t close the deal. He’ll have to deal with upcoming primaries and caucuses in Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas, and Missouri, which are all inhospitable states for Romney.
What does all this mean? It means that tonight’s results don’t matter. If Romney wins both contests, he’ll be able to breath a little easier for a week. And then he’ll be in the same place that Matt Dowd said he’d be after Super Tuesday, with conversations going on behind closed doors about how to find another candidate.
For Romney to escape this plotting, he’ll have to win big enough in Michigan to somehow change people’s minds about him in Ohio and Georgia and Tennessee and Oklahoma. Because, unless he can win in the South, he isn’t going to knock his opponents out of the race or get a big enough delegate lead to wrap up the nomination.
