I’m modestly disappointed that Obama is only polling slightly better against Romney than he actually did against McCain. A dead heat in Arizona is about what I would expect, considering that McCain carried more votes in his home state than Romney will. Arizona and Missouri are the two McCain-carried states most likely to flip into the blue column this November. But this is the starting point. Obama’s car is fueled up and ready to blast out of the gate. Romney’s is loaded down with baggage, including that damned dog on the damn roof. It’s like Christie Brinkley vs. the Griswolds (the family from Vacation or the Supreme Court ruling).
I think it will take events outside of anyone’s control to prevent this race from steadily widening in Obama’s favor as the spring arrives and turns into summer. Arizona is even now. In two months, I expect it to be leaning-Dem. Obama has a seven-point national lead today. I expect it to be double-digits by June. This should be a very decisive election. The damage the Republicans have done with women is not something that can be repaired. Romney has completely alienated the Latino vote. The punditry of the country is appalled. Republican leaders are shocked.
And the Republicans may not even have a nominee for months. They could actually arrive at their convention without a nominee.
The economic news has been good, not great, lately. The stock market is at a high point. Things are going really well. I just wish I could relax. It’s like a heavyweight fight. No matter how badly the fighters are mismatched, men that large can deliver a surprise knockout blow. That’s what Romney’s fighting for now. He just wants a puncher’s chance. The thing is, presidential elections always go to the judge’s cards. Yeah, maybe that judge will be Antoniin Scalia, but I don’t think so. Not this time.
I think you’re right overall if trends were to continue. However, it seems unlikely they’ll continue – specifically economic trends. The stock market is likely a couple of weeks away from a moderate correction. That’s nothing catastrophic, but it’ll erase the tenuous gains we’ve seen recently and dampen the mood a bit and also cut into the president’s support a tiny bit. After that of course the market will start climbing again, but the economic news from around the world is gradually getting worse, so that means we shouldn’t expect much domestically either.
(And I’m setting aside shocks like an attack on Iran because it’s impossible to predict.)
Pollster’s average has Obama just 6 points ahead of Romney and more or less flat lining over the past few weeks – which is amazing considering how badly the Repugs have been doing.
The economy has been improving and even Europe will turn around slowly now that the Greek situation has been calmed for the time being. Key will be when the current speculator and hedge fund spike in Oil prices will burst – an oil price crash (predicted for within the next 3 months – will put a lot of extra disposable income in (almost!) everyone’s pockets.
That is why the oil speculators are so desperately hyping the prospects of an Iran war – its the only way they can keep the oil price bubble from bursting.
“just 6 points”
Six points is a lot these days, with the level of polarization in the electorate. There just aren’t as many voters up for grabs as there were in 1984 or 1972. As a result, it’s difficult to built up a very big lead.
The flip side of that, however, is that it is harder to make up six points than it used to be. Obama with a six point lead in 2012 is in a much more secure position than a candidate with a six point lead was in the 50s-80s.
Or Dukasis with a 17 point lead as late as July 1988?
To answer the question, yes. Why? Because in politics, anything (well, almost anything) can happen.
That’s what the “surprise knockout blow” is in your analogy. If, say, Israel bombs Iran, Iran retaliates and closes the Straits of Hormuz, oil goes to $150/barrel, the world economy worsens, the Euro starts to fall apart, and the US economy slips back into recession (or just stalls), then there’s a good chance we’re looking at President Romney (and Senate Majority Leader McConnell) next January.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama has a double-digit lead in June. I also wouldn’t get too excited about it. I’m so old I remember Dukakis’ 17 point lead in July of 1988. Given the nature of political campaigns, I’ll be surprised if the Republican nominee doesn’t have a lead in the polls in late August, just after the Republican convention.
Having said all that, I agree that things are looking pretty good for Obama, and for the Democrats in general. If new unemployment claims stay down around 350,000 a week (as they have for the past month), if the economy creates 200,000+ jobs a month (as it did in January), if disposable personal income continues to rise (as it did in 4Q 2011), then it’s going to be extraordinarily difficult for Republicans to take the White House.
“Things are going really well. I just wish I could relax. It’s like a heavyweight fight. No matter how badly the fighters are mismatched, men that large can deliver a surprise knockout blow. That’s what Romney’s fighting for now. He just wants a puncher’s chance. “
This is why I read this blog every day. When you nail it, B, you nail it.
But like you said, Obama hasn’t even stepped into the ring yet.
Not to be a Cassandra or anything, but part of Obama’s current lead has to be from the disgust of the general public about the Klown Kar Kavalcade that is running down the road.
The American electorate has the attention span of a mayfly. When the R’s continually mosquitoe like whinning stops around a single candidate, the polls could easily revert 3% points overnight.
On the other hand, Obama has yet to start swinging, most Americans are just figuring out that Yes, Virginia, there IS going to be an election this year, and that things are looking up.
From your lips to God’s ear, Booman. But don’t jinx us by being too frenetically optimistic.
Never forget this BooMan:
1. Pew did the study for us…the President receives NINETY PERCENT NEGATIVE COVERAGE.
90% NEGATIVE COVERAGE?
I think he’s doing pretty good, considering…
2. The President is Black. I say this, without a shadow of a doubt, if Barack Obama were White, the election would already be declared over, considering what he’s accomplished so far.
Oil.
Gas prices don’t effect the presidential election much, but increasing energy demand but in-elastic oil supply WILL retard any economic recovery. There’s no way to get around that. The economy simply can’t get too grow too fast because of lack of oil.
I don’t know if there’s an actual upper limit to growth because of oil (a hard limit) in the near future. It may just slow things, or maybe not.
I wonder sometimes if a cap on growth rates is actually a good thing. Perhaps slow-and-steady growth, instead of rah-rah booms, will mean our economy avoids bubbles, which inevitably burst and send us into recession.
I’d love to see growth stay between 4 and 5% for 20 straight years, instead of a cycle of booms and busts.
Well I think it’s worthwhile to have a recession if that’s what it takes to significantly reduce carbon emissions, and even before that, I think an economy that depends on growth is a bad idea.
And it wouldn’t be 4-5% it would be closer to 1-3%.
But regardless in this context it’s about how much growth do you need to be on solid footing to win the next election.
NO!
I believe Obama played “rope a dope(she wasn’t) with Hillary, and Obama has been playing ROPE A DOPE( They ARE!)with the Republicans for the last year.
So, Regarding Mitt “Windmill” Romney: He has punched sooo many times on sooo many subjects, ol Mitt will be Punchless by November!
I think you’re leaving out the most important factor–assuming Romney does get the nomination, he’s still going to have to appease the troglodytes. It’s not like they’re going to allow him to move to the center once he starts campaigning against Obama.
I always think of the Judean People’s Front. Or was it the People’s Front of Judea?
“In order to be a conservative, you have to really hate Barack Obama.”
“I do! I do hate Barack Obama!”
And so on. But it’s not really clear that Mitt Romney does hate Barack Obama, is it?