I’m Calling Ohio for Romney

Romney is going to win Ohio. I don’t think it will be close enough for an automatic recount. The next question to ask is where Romney and Santorum will win again. Look at the schedule for the rest of the month. I am going to make the following assumptions:

1. Romney will win in all U.S. territories because people living in Guam and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are moderate and not susceptible to religious or Southern messaging.

2. Gingrich will continue to win in the Deep South.

3. Santorum will win in areas contiguous with areas he has already won.

March 10
Guam Caucuses 9 delegates- Romney
Kansas Caucuses 40 delegates- Santorum
Northern Marianas Islands Caucuses 9 delegates- Romney
Virgin Islands Caucuses 9 delegates- Romney

Santorum will be pleased to win another state, but he can’t be too optimistic about the next contests.

March 13
Alabama Primary 50 delegates- Gingrich
American Samoa Caucuses 9 delegates- Romney
Hawaii Caucuses 20 delegates- Romney
Mississippi Primary 40 delegates- Gingrich

This provides a shutout for Santorum, blunting his momentum, and a big win for Gingrich, reviving his campaign. Romney’s wins will be announced in the middle of the night and won’t mean anything for the narrative. Of course, all delegates are valuable.

March 17
Missouri Caucuses » 52 delegates- Santorum

Santorum already won the primary in Missouri. He will probably win the caucus. This will keep the race from moving decisively in any direction.

March 18
Puerto Rico Caucuses 23 delegates- Romney

Romney continues to win skirmishes.

March 20
Illinois Primary 69 delegates- ?????

March 24
Louisiana Primary 46 delegates- ?????

It’s really going to come down to Illinois, I think. If Romney can win Illinois, he’ll have a good chance of getting a majority of the delegates and accepting the nomination in Tampa. But if Santorum wins Illinois then Romney’s chances get very dicey. Also, will Santorum be able to breakthrough against Gingrich in Louisiana due to his more longstanding Catholicism? Or will Newt make a clean sweep of the Deep South?

Remember, it helps Romney to have both Santorum and Gingrich in the race, but it can also work against him. He still needs to win a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich is winning in the South and Santorum is winning in the Border States and Midwest, then Romney can’t do better than a plurality of the delegates.