You heard it here first, about a year ago. Now the New York Times is coming around:
For the first time in a generation, Republicans are preparing for the possibility that their presidential nomination could be decided at their national convention rather than on the campaign trail, a prospect that would upend one of the rituals of modern politics.
With Santorum still showing some strength, my best estimate is that Romney will need a big majority of the unpledged delegates if he wants to secure the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa. I do not see him currently winning an outright majority of the pledged delegates. Big wins in Illinois and Puerto Rico could change that, but only if Santorum’s level of support collapses as a result.
The Romney campaign is carefully monitoring Mr. Santorum’s and Mr. Gingrich’s delegate tallies and plans to label them spoilers if reaching 1,144 becomes implausible for them. At that point, Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich would be running to stop Mr. Romney from doing so — a strategy that Mr. Gingrich is already discussing openly — and thereby forcing a fight to the convention.
“Roughly translated, that means, ‘We’re planning on ensuring the party can’t choose a nominee until September, with 60 days to take on an incumbent president who will have $1 billion,’ ” [Romney campaign’s chief counsel] Ms. [Katie Biber] Chen said, referring to an often disputed estimate of Mr. Obama’s fund-raising goal.
Roughly translated, that means that the GOP electorate will have done everything it can do to make it clear that they do not want Mitt Romney as their standard bearer. Even when provided with the most ridiculous alternatives in the history of American politics, they couldn’t agree to Mitt Romney. Then they will assemble in Tampa and have a giant fight which will most likely result in the party establishment shoving Romney down the base’s throat. And then they’ll have sixty days to patch everything up.
As things stand, Romney will probably have the votes he needs, but not without the unpledged delegates who come mainly from the RNC. And this is not assured.
Randy Evans, Mr. Gingrich’s lawyer and senior adviser, said that to reach 1,144, Mr. Romney would have to rely on some of the more than 100 unbound delegates from around the country who have so far given him oral commitments, and “we know in politics how valuable those are.”
Mr. Romney’s campaign said it might have to rely on such commitments, but was not concerned.
Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich believe that they will have an edge over Mr. Romney among the party delegates because, as Mr. Santorum’s new delegate strategist, John P. Yob, said, “the people who show up for county, district and state conventions are much more conservative than your average primary voters.”
But, again, most of these unpledged (or unbound) delegates are actually RNC officials. They are pretty conservative, but they’re also team players. They’ll probably try their damnedest to throw the nomination to Romney before the festivities begin at the convention. We’ll see how that goes over with the base.
Since the RNC anticipates counting even their half counts, Paul’s count by Summer’s end will be substantial (what, close to 50 by then?) enough that when he clamps down and starts his NO dance it makes him even more of a king maker. Who knows, maybe he will never bend, but somebody is going to be nice to him.
The money boys have got to be getting cranky. With Sheldon’s empire under legal attack in Macao, the Koch brothers looking for more fight specific ways to spend against the Dems not their own, wiggle room with Iran, and the definitive trait of these players who like to make money not see it flutter in the wind.
The money’s gonna have a tantrum.
Here’s another [not so] unrelated fight.
I don’t want to read the WH directive, so can you explain to rational and normal people what it actually does?
I’m not a lawyer, but this just sounds like a standard national disaster preparedness plan that has probably existed, in some form, for decades.
But, of course, when viewed through the tin foil, it is the long-awaited Obama decree of his absolute king-like power and the lead-in to his dictatorship. Followed shortly thereafter by Armageddon, of course.
I sense that you Progressives are disturbed by this, even though your guy is in the White House…good.
Who was in the white house when this was first put on the books. Oh yeah, thats right, Reagan. Why are you so disturbed by what Reagan did?
I don’t get it. How is this any different from the usual black helicopters, end-time hysteria on the right?
Its basicly an update of the national prepardness plan thats been in existence since 1988. Overall steps to dictatorship = zero.
Some articles
http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/03/no-martial-law/
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/03/18/national-defense-resources-preparedness-executive-order-power-
grab-or-update/
So yeah, much ado about nothing.
“Roughly translated, that means, `We’re planning on ensuring the party can’t choose a nominee until September, with 60 days to take on an incumbent president who will have $1 billion,’ ” [Romney campaign’s chief counsel] Ms. [Katie Biber] Chen said, referring to an often disputed estimate of Mr. Obama’s fund-raising goal.
Cry me a river!!
This entry makes a rather overt assumption: The Republican Party in its current form will survive to win another election. I challenge that assumption.
I see the Republican breaking into two parties: Conservative and Republican. Where the future “Republican” will be the current social issues Republicans … the Religious Right.
Conservatives will be the current Romneyites … about 25% of the current party + about 35% of the current “Independants”. Given the conservative Independants who want nothing to do with the religious right, these two parties will start out with the religious right somewhat bigger but will be competing for the same voter pool: The South, the Mountain West, parts of the Rust Belt, and Inner Tier (IA, MO, AR, the Dakotas and Nebraska).
I don’t see the religious right giving in to the Fiscal right any time soon, say about the next 10 years. By that time, the religious right will be definitely in decline because they are dying.
Go Newt Go!
He’s merely declaring, as lawyers do, what all of the accumulated authorities established by previous administrations leave authority to do. An aggregation, if you wish.
I used to ask the fools what they were going to think of some future president they didn’t support having the Unitary Executive power at hand as claimed by the Cheney Administration and predecessors.
“But, again, most of these unpledged (or unbound) delegates are actually RNC officials. They are pretty conservative, but they’re also team players.”
Yes, but where is the team?
This is getting to look more and more like “a house divided against itself.” You have a number of factions of super-wealthy donors fighting each other for control. They are fighting for power, not profit, and therefore not going to withdraw unless they absolutely have to. None of the candidates is remotely the kind of unifying figure that can unite the party, let alone appeal to a majority of national voters.
So, I agree with your analysis, Boo, but not with what you said in the earlier post that the conservatives are becoming more powerful. They are not on a sustainable path.