A relatively recent Fox News Latino poll showed President Obama leading Mitt Romney among Latinos by a 5:1 ratio. The actual results were 70% for Obama and 14% for Romney. By way of comparison, the national exit polls from 2008 showed Obama leading McCain 67%-31%. Let’s attempt to see what this change could mean by looking at Colorado.
McCain did better among Latinos in Colorado (61%-37%) than he did nationally. By my calculations, 2,273,805 Coloradans cast a vote in 2008, and 295,595 (13%) of them were Latino. If Obama won 61% of their votes, then he beat McCain 180,312-115,283 with the Latino vote. In other words, he netted votes roughly 65,000 votes strictly through his advantage with Latinos. Considering that he won the state by 215,000 votes, his advantage with Latinos wasn’t decisive, but it certainly added some cushion.
Now, let’s try to plug these new poll numbers in and see what we get. With a 70%-14% advantage, there is 16% undecided or planning to vote for a third party. In 2008, only 1% of Latinos voted third party. So, to be fair, let’s split the undecideds between Obama and Romney, giving each 7.5% of them and leaving one percent unallocated. This means that Obama will get 77.5% of the Latino vote compared to 21.5% for Romney. Assuming nothing else changes, including the overall turnout or the percentage of the electorate that is Latino, here are the new numbers.
Total vote: 2,273,805
Total Latino vote: 295,595
Votes for Obama: 229,086
Votes for Romney: 63,553
Net difference: 165,533
Net increase from 2008: +100,000 for Obama
Obama would go from netting 65,000 votes in 2008 to netting 165,000 votes in 2012. And, remember, he only won the state by 215,000 votes in 2008.
This is just one example. And it’s not an overly optimistic example because while Romney can hope to improve his numbers with Latinos, Obama can also expect a higher percentage of the Colorado electorate to be Latino.
I don’t have the exit poll numbers I need to check other relevant states, but McCain only won his home state of Arizona by 195,000 votes. A comparable drop-off in Latino votes would doom Romney in Arizona. Likewise in Missouri, which McCain won by less than 4,000 votes. Even a state like Texas, which McCain won by nearly a million votes, begins to look quite purple if Obama is approaching 80% with the Latino vote. As for states that Obama won, like Nevada and New Mexico, these kinds of results will put those states far out of reach.
No wonder Romney wants an Etch a Sketch.
