Month: March 2012

I’m modestly disappointed that Obama is only polling slightly better against Romney than he actually did against McCain. A dead heat in Arizona is about what I would expect, considering that McCain carried more votes in his home state than Romney will. Arizona and Missouri are the two McCain-carried states most likely to flip into the blue column this November. But this is the starting point. Obama’s car is fueled up and ready to blast out of the gate. Romney’s is loaded down with baggage, including that damned dog on the damn roof. It’s like Christie Brinkley vs. the Griswolds (the family from Vacation or the Supreme Court ruling).

I think it will take events outside of anyone’s control to prevent this race from steadily widening in Obama’s favor as the spring arrives and turns into summer. Arizona is even now. In two months, I expect it to be leaning-Dem. Obama has a seven-point national lead today. I expect it to be double-digits by June. This should be a very decisive election. The damage the Republicans have done with women is not something that can be repaired. Romney has completely alienated the Latino vote. The punditry of the country is appalled. Republican leaders are shocked.

And the Republicans may not even have a nominee for months. They could actually arrive at their convention without a nominee.

The economic news has been good, not great, lately. The stock market is at a high point. Things are going really well. I just wish I could relax. It’s like a heavyweight fight. No matter how badly the fighters are mismatched, men that large can deliver a surprise knockout blow. That’s what Romney’s fighting for now. He just wants a puncher’s chance. The thing is, presidential elections always go to the judge’s cards. Yeah, maybe that judge will be Antoniin Scalia, but I don’t think so. Not this time.

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For those who are still in denial about the extremism of modern-day Republicans, the past week — hell, the past 24 hours — should have been a cold slap in the face, a big jolt of reality. Rush Limbaugh, praised for years by Republicans, declared an honorary member of the House freshman class in the Contract with America year of 1994, pal to Dick Cheney all through his time as vice president, attacks an advocate of contraceptive coverage as a slut and a prostitute and, after being criticized, doubles down, demanding that the woman “post [sex] videos online” in return for contraceptive coverage. Sheriff Joe Arpaio, honorary Arizona co-chair of Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign, backer of Rick Perry last fall until he dropped out of the race, object of the entreaties of Rick Santorum, holds a press conference today to reassert that the long-form Obama birth certificate is a fake. (Santorum, when he met with Arpaio last week, was briefed on Arpaio’s birther “investigation” and didn’t immediately distance himself from the sheriff.) Oh, and what else? Nearly every Republican senator voted for the Blunt amendment? Andrew Breitbart died and much of the right concluded that President Obama murdered him? And, five days ago, Rick Santorum declared that anyone who wants more Americans to have access to college is a “snob”?

That’s just one week. And yet …

We will go into the fall election with Obama and Romney as the candidates and Romney will try to portray Obama as “extreme” and “out of the mainstream.” He, his running mate, and his surrogates will declare that Obama stands for an extreme, peculiar, bizarre, foreign worldview. And this will be taken seriously. One or two setbacks in the economy or the foreign-policy sphere, one or two good news cycles for the Romney campaign, and we’ll be right back to the premise that “real Americans” are Republicans and that it’s the Democrats who are the weirdos and freaks.

For the love of God, mainstream media, please remember this moment. And realize that there’ll be even worse moments to come.

(X-posted at No More Mister Nice Blog.)

TJ Walker remarks on the statement by Rush Limbaugh about women who take birth control.

http://youtu.be/IUv_Laj_ukc

My general attitude is that it’s polite to set out a little time after someone loathsome dies before you say bad things about them. This is a matter of personal taste. I may think “good riddance” to myself, but I’m just going to refrain from saying it for a day or two, or maybe until they’ve been laid to rest. I make exceptions for notorious dictators and criminals. It’s not usually the case that I’m glad that someone is dead, either. Even when I’m sorry or generally indifferent about someone’s death, I try to refrain from badmouthing them for a period of time.

Obviously, a lot of progressives have less tact. I think, though, that one must consider what it means to live a life that causes such hatred. But enough of that, lest I violate my own rule.

I hope Andrew Breitbart’s loved ones will be spared too much vitriol over the next few days. After that? We will discuss vitriol quite a lot.

Yes, it was a racist email/joke, but I didn’t even take it that way when I first read it. My immediate reaction was that it was an attack on the president’s mother and that it was a cruel thing to say.

So, here’s the joke:

The subject line of the email, which [U.S. District Court Judge Richard] Cebull sent from his official courthouse email address on Feb. 20 at 3:42 p.m., reads: “A MOM’S MEMORY.”

The forwarded text reads as follow:

“Normally I don’t send or forward a lot of these, but even by my standards, it was a bit touching. I want all of my friends to feel what I felt when I read this. Hope it touches your heart like it did mine.

“A little boy said to his mother; ‘Mommy, how come I’m black and you’re white?'” the email joke reads. “His mother replied, ‘Don’t even go there Barack! From what I can remember about that party, you’re lucky you don’t bark!'”

Richard Cebull has served as chief judge for the District of Montana since 2008. His excuse is fairly straightforward:

He admitted that he read the email and intended to send it to his friends.

“The only reason I can explain it to you is I am not a fan of our president, but this goes beyond not being a fan,” Cebull said. “I didn’t send it as racist, although that’s what it is. I sent it out because it’s anti-Obama.”

I think it’s more instructive to take him at his word than to suggest he’s really some giant racist. He liked the joke because it was cruel. And he wanted to be cruel to the president because he doesn’t like him. I think a lot of us can relate on some level. We certainly shared enough cruel jokes about George W. Bush. What makes this different is that it’s a joke about something the president cannot control. It’s a joke about his absent father, whose absence touched Obama so deeply that he wrote a book called Dreams From My Father. It’s a joke about his mother and her sexual morality, and that’s about as personal as you can get. Finally, although I didn’t even notice it at first, it compares black people to dogs, and interracial couplings to bestiality.

A joke like this is a Rorschach Test. Everyone will react differently or see something slightly different in it. What should be uncontroversial is that it’s not the kind of joke that should be endorsed by a sitting federal judge, even in private correspondence. I don’t know that it’s an impeachable offense, but it would get most people fired or suspended from their jobs, especially since he sent it on a government computer.

And, yes, Dubya appointed this guy.

One of the most reliable predictors of a president’s chances for re-election is change in personal disposable income in the 6-12 month period before Election Day.  Ronald Reagan didn’t win re-election because he did a great job managing the economy for four years.  He got re-elected despite a dismal economy for much of 1981-83, because personal disposable income (and related economic measures) soared in late 1983 and throughout 1984.  Thus, “Morning In America”.

So, you know folks at Obama campaign headquarters in Chicago are smiling this morning when they look at these new estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for economic performance in the 4th quarter of 2011.  Mark Doms, chief economist for the Dept. of Commerce, runs the changes:

While the upward revision to GDP was welcome news, there was even better news in revisions to the income data….  More specifically, personal income growth was revised upward, from 0.8% to 3.2% in Q3, and from 2.6% and 3.2% in Q4.

As consumer spending wasn’t revised, this extra income implies that the personal saving rate was also revised upward in both quarters: from 3.9% to 4.6% in Q3, and from 3.7% to 4.5% in Q4.  

These revisions to income and savings are significant because of the story they tell about the sustainability of the recent strength of consumer spending.  The old story line was that some of the growth we saw in consumer spending in the second half of last year was fueled by a decrease in the saving rate.  A challenge we then faced was the sustainability of future growth (since one can only lower the saving rate for so long).  Today’s data show that the saving rate didn’t fall much and that the growth was instead fueled by higher incomes.  I realize this is getting into the weeds a bit, but it really is quite good and important economic news.

It’s also quite good and important economic news for Pres. Obama’s chances of winning November’s election.

(h/t: Kevin Drum)

Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com

Arkansas did it in 1931.  South Dakota did it in 1938.  Maine, Nebraska, Oregon & Kansas did it in the 1940s, 50s, 60s and 70s respectively.

Arkansas, California, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Washington have all done it at least twice.

Massachusetts has never done it.

“It” is electing a woman to the US Senate.

Unlike their counterparts in three bordering states (CT, NH, VT), Massachusetts voters also have never elected a female governor.

All of which is to say that Boston Globe op-ed columnist and veteran political observer Joan Vennochi gives good advice today when she warns Elizabeth Warren of the perils of becoming the “woman’s candidate” in her US Senate race:

(Warren’s) obviously a smart, articulate, and confident candidate. But while her advocacy of birth control coverage makes feminist hearts flutter, it may be a little too breathless and self-righteous for others.

Just like Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, Warren should reclaim the economic turf. That’s what the election is really about.

Massachusetts has a long-standing proclivity for deciding what’s right and that the rest of the country should now (immediately!) follow its lead (see: the American Revolution, abolitionism, the labor movement, prohibition, marriage equality).  We’re just not always as good at walking the walk as we are at talking the talk.

Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/