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Final result: Hollande 28.6% – Sarkozy 27.2% – LePen 17.9% – Melenchon 11.1% (Updated)
BREAKING NEWS: Sarkozy, Hollande advance to second round of French presidential election, according to exit polls
Incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Francois Hollande advanced to the second round of France’s presidential poll with 25.5% and 28.4% of the vote respectively in Sunday’s first round, according to exit polls by French pollster Ipsos. The far right’s Marine Le Pen came third with a surprise 20% of the vote. [First exit poll results]
Hollande wins first round, sets up run-off with Sarkozy
(France24) – French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate François Hollande will face off in the second round of France’s presidential election after edging out the far right’s Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s first round of voting.
Official results announced by France’s Interior Ministry at 8pm showed Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front party, had conquered third place with 20%, the Ipsos polling agency said. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon took 11.5%, and centrist François Bayrou 8.5%. The placement of the two leading candidates in the election were in line with dozens of opinion surveys published before Sunday’s ballot, but Le Pen’s figures were well above any of those forecasts.
Marine Le Pen far exceeded her father’s shocking second-place 16.86% score in the 2002 presidential race. Even if it was not enough to get her to the second round, the extraordinary score confirmed her presence at the head of the anti-immigration National Front party and in France’s political landscape for years to come. A drop in voter intentions for Sarkozy in the final weeks of the campaign appears to have swung to the far-right camp.
According to Eric Bonnet, head of opinion studies at the BVA polling firm, the transfer of second-round votes would favour the leftist candidate. “Eighty percent of Melenchon’s votes will go to François Hollande while only 35% of the votes of Marine Le Pen will be reaped by Nicolas Sarkozy,” Bonnet said.
- See also Booman’s recent fp story and discussion – Is Sarkozy About to Fall?
France votes in first round of presidential poll
(France24) – The wave of “anti-Sarkozyism” – as it’s known in France – has been seized on by Hollande, who has consistently led the polls in the run-up to the election. Polls have shown both Sarkozy and Hollande capturing slightly less than 30% of the votes, with Hollande a few points ahead.
The Socialist candidate voted in the central French town of Tulle Sunday, where he told supporters, “This is an election that will weigh on the future of Europe. That’s why many people are watching us.”
At his final campaign stop in the north-eastern industrial town of Charleville-Mezieres on Friday, Hollande noted that, “This is a region that put its faith in Nicolas Sarkozy, who came here making speeches on industry, jobs, workers. Everybody can see the scale of the disappointment,” he said before adding, “”Now, it’s the left’s turn to govern the country.”
France’s left has not governed since 1995 and there has been only one leftist president during the Fifth Republic – Socialist François Mitterrand.
If, as the polls suggest, Sarkozy loses the May 6 second round, he will be the first French president since 1981 to not win a second term in office. The last president to be voted out of office after completing his first term was the centre-right Valery Giscard d’Estaing.
Under French law, if no candidate wins 50% of the vote, the top two contenders head for a knock-out round, set for May 6 this year.
So, can Sarkozy win over the LePen folks?
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I receive France24 satellite TV so I can watch the political forums, interviews and election results. [Final result Hollande 28.8% vs. Sarkozy 27.2%] Marine Le Pen got an eclatant win this election with 17.9% of the vote, much better result than her father at 10.2% in 2007. Most of her backers are strongly anti-Sarkozy, a much hated political figure who just isn’t trustworthy. Amazingly, many LePen voters wait for her endorsement, if any, for the final round of the presidential election on May 6. I expect a large percentage of her backers have voted for the first time ever, not to vote. Similar to what we have seen in other countries with the populist far-right candidates such as Fortuyn and Wilders. The turnout of 80% in France was a record high since 1956!
The polls and my prediction will be a sound victory for the Socialist candidate Hollande in large part because of the anti-Sarkozy feeling amongst the French. It’s up to Hollande to build a coalition of solidarity based on economic growth (not EU austerity) and jobs. An easy sell for his constituents, much tougher to turn around the financial and stock markets in France.
The early polls shows Hollande 54% to Sarkozy 46%. Mélanchon (11.1%) took away votes from Hollande and LePen scored well with the Sarkozy electorate. The small advantage for Hollande in the final vote will come from the smaller parties on the left end of the spectrum.
Why Nicholas Sarkozy won in 2007: Europe and the Battle for France
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Le Pen voters are indeed Sarko’s last chance (as well as biggest problem). According to second round preference polls, voters of center-right candidate Bayrou (who got 9%) split evenly between Hollande, Sarko and abstaining; while voters of Mélenchon, Green candidate Eva Joly, and the two extreme-left candidates can be expected to turn out for Hollande by a wide majority. But about half of Le Pen voters would abstain and a fifth would even vote Hollande. So Sarko could gain most by trying to convince that half of Le Pen voters to not abstain but vote for him. He indeed angled that way already on the night of the first round, alluding to a Front National slogan in his speech.
Thanks for your excellent European coverage,Oui.
Is Hollande a real Socialist or a SINO that will kowtow to the banks and corporations?
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"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."